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UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 23, 2017.

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  1. iGnP Silver Belt

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    i may have had one too many drinks tonight, but how does 45% equate to -344?

    Edit I mean 55% for not stipe itd. You know what I mean

    Double edit I'm still lost. If you cap Stipe itd at 45% then any other result equates 55% which is -122. How is there value at -173 and how did you get -344 as the true line
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2017
  2. FightOdds.io White Belt

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    Oh sorry. I didn't explain that correctly at all lol. I meant basically IF stipe were to win, i cap that he would win ITD 45% of the time. So 22.5% (50% * 45%) chance of winning ITD and 77.5% chance he won't win ITD which is equal to -344.
     
  3. iGnP Silver Belt

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    LOL yea I should have noticed that my bad. Wish you had just said you cap Stipe itd at 22.5% ;)
     
  4. Shancock9 Yellow Belt

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    Yeah i'm 1 unit deep on maia but gonna avoid anything else and live bet as I think there could be some fun to be had there.

    If Maia Fails with a few takedowns, as long as he isnt getting too peppered by that stage, Masvidal's odds might not plummet too much and a play on him could prove fruitful. If Maia does get a takedown will be interesting to see how odds react, Rogan's Commentary probably won't help haha as he always stresses how good Maia is on the ground over and over

    Like you said so many questions that can't be answered til we see the fight, which is what makes it an exciting fight, I think anyone with a real strong lean on this has failed to look past there own bias
     
  5. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    wow so many confident picks on maia/masvidal

    in b4 the 20u bets start flying!
     
  6. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Stipe not ITD is currently -120 at betway if anyone is interested and got an account there
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2017
  7. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    It was pretty obvious since Brooks' fight against Pearson, that he was not comfortable fighting in UFC. WSOF record is not worth that much in UFC, but no reason to fade fighters like him until we can see if they can do something with their momentum at this level.
     
  8. barrygood1 Blue Belt

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    Tip of the day:

    "Variables are always in constant fluctuation in the sports betting landscape."

    I've made more money "exploiting" microscopic inefficiencies than dolts who think they can make more through arbitrage. I'm ruthless as the Borg and sting like a raw bee. I wear my $harp critical thinking hat as a badge of honor and bar none, Barrygood1's handicapping skills are second to none. (Shameful plug for BG1's handicapping service)

    The same doofuses throwing jabs at me for losing a bet or think they know best when it comes to handicapping are rutabagas of the vegetable world. They think they're hard, but they're just rats stuck in a rut i.e sewer dwellers.

    I browse this damn thread when time permits or when I'm waiting for my in & out burger and it's flat out appalling what I come across. 5 fighter parlays, laying more juice than Rich Piana, bet slips built on "perception", chasing, overbetting and a whole slew of rinky dink circus shit. Shameful.

    If there's one piece of advice I would give upon my last dying breath, it would be this: "this ain't no get rich quick fix, it's about finding value day after day, month after month and year after year. There'll be highs & lows, peaks & dips, valleys & plateaus, but those with the God given will to succeed will reach the summit, by everything that is holy in this world."

    * This reply isn't in response to the anti-barry haters or the unsavory crowd along the side of the road throwing rocks. I'm not mad either, so don't even bother with the whole "oh, he mad" or whatever that Bill O' Reilly/Cam'Ron meme is. Not everyone has to get along, but we all need to be on the same page when it comes to beating the bookies. They're our true mortal enemies and we need to unite like the band of brothers to bring forth an onslaught that would make Thanos proud!

    I am a cool dude despite how the sherdog betting community may feel. I try for the most part to stay in my lane. However, if you're thumping your chest like some alpha ape throwing shit my way, then I will defend my self by any means necessary. My livelihood is built from my reputation as a legitimate handicapper and it's how I make ends meet along with betting. After my breakup with my ex-gf some unscrupulous e-jerks thought it would be lulzy to verbally taunt me. No names will be mentioned but I have a good idea who their Sherdog aliases are!

    I really am thinking whether or not to give any more free picks from this point on. I've almost reached the boiling point. I thank my subscribers, fans and bros who're aboard the bandwagon, but it's the naysayers who make my time contributing to this community, "all for naught."

    UFC211 might be my final free pick and a farewell. I never thought in my wildest dreams a select group of e-thugs could sap the the life-force from me. Of course, the $500 free pick offer is still on the table but it's looking like the last free lunch offered from yours truly. We'll see... All good things come to an end... right?

    Thank you for reading what I wrote. I am delicate and fragile inside despite my diamond exterior and I needed to vent a bit of frustration.


    - Barry
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Is this the same ex GF as last year or a different one?

    Barry...we care. You are a national treasure buddy. Hope it all works out for you.
     
  10. Mcgregorian Purple Belt

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    So who's ya top pick for 211 Bazza?
     
  11. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    A lot of guys (not all), who profess to be the sharpest sharp on this thread, go really really quiet when they lose. Noticed it in the last event particularly.
     
  12. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    sounds like barry needs to get laid
     
  13. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Some interesting thoughts right there, I think Stipe will finish JDS but a decision is very possible too, JDS has declined since their first meeting, Overeem cracked his chin, I think JDS has taken too much damage and Stipe will be able to find the chin unlike Rothwell who was just too slow. I like Stipe moneyline and I'll like it more if the line keeps tightening.

    Seems like you know your stuff though, be good to hear your thoughts more often.
     
  14. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    This Masvidal vs Maia talk is getting silly now, people are either going round in circles like myself or they are talking about irrelevant information.

    Even worse people are calling it a coin flip or a toss up. Believe me this fight will not look like a coin flip. One side is going to dominate the other, there's a massive contrast in styles and whoever implements their game successfully will win and do so easily. I said the same thing about the Cormier vs Johnson fight.
     
  15. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    I need to get back the $200 I lost on Weidman so gonna do $200 on Maia and hope I don't get even farther behind. Lol
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Idk why that's a bad thing though. I'm depressed as fuck when I'm down/if I lose lol seems pretty normal
     
  17. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Who are you referring to?

    Better not be me, cause I own my L, losing is a big deal to me so when it happens you'll know.

    IDK where Goodfella is at though seems like he's been getting rekt.
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Not me. I piss and moan like nobody's business LOL. Like when I lost 16 damn units a few events ago.

    But that said in this being my 13th year of MMA betting I've only had 2 losing years. One was brutally bad but overall I'm up a very good amount.

    But I will always own my losses.
     
  19. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Well @lawmills2006 better start naming names, clearly taking shots, but at who? tell us @lawmills2006
     
  20. King_Brown #AndStill #1 bettor on Sherdog ($4300) Banned

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    I hope he is not talking about me me because my sig even says publicly that I suck and I have lost a lot of money. I'm not running anywhere. Still considering myself as an elite bettor and I will shock everybody with my big wins in the near future. But I prolly know who he meant but no need to say these names. Let it be
    I made some changes in my tactics. special shoutout goes to @Joseph Budden and @Oblivian who gave me expert advice how to handle this situation. Hopefully it works out for me.
     
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