UFC 212 - Aldo vs Holloway - Rio de Janeiro

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Well i wouldnt expect him to talk like a defeated man. He has very limited striking hence why he panic shoots every fight and he doesnt react well at all to being hit all hyperbole for me. Hes even talking of making a run for the title lol
Yeah, my takeaways from this video are not in Spicely's favor. He talked about Junior's wrestling as just being jui-jitsu guy wrestling, but then he sort of contradicts himself mentioning singles and doubles. ACJ actually has really solid MMA wrestling with singles, doubles, front trips, and taking the back and tripping as well. He can also scramble as we saw in his last 2 fights.

He mentions cardio, but Junior had to push harder than Vettori in the 3rd last fight and he did. He won the fight before that in the 3rd, and with Kelly I think that fight has been talked to death but let's just say that fight is very misunderstood imo.

Spicely also is sounding like McGeary in the last fight - oh I don't cut much weight so the other guy with the bigger muscles will get tired. The problem is not only does Spicely not go long, but what happens when the bigger, stronger guy is able to go the distance quite comfortably and winds up on top.
 
What makes you think he looked good against Gastelum? I didn't think that at all

From memory he landed some goood shots and he is still fast and have continuously been fighting better guys than Marq. I got a little one Nate the great, but I'm not confident.
 
Hey gents, on my honeymoon so haven't been posting much. On Aldo 5u, with some on his unan dec line, Carlos + Claudia 7u, Eduardo and wall head small and a few small props. Good luck all!
 
From memory he landed some goood shots and he is still fast and have continuously been fighting better guys than Marq. I got a little one Nate the great, but I'm not confident.
You should rewatch the fight. It won't take you long.

As for fighting better competition, it's not a factor in this fight, imo. Vitor can spend the next 2 years fighting the Top 10, but he'll continue to lose to them. Marquardt can do the same.

Vitor does the same stuff every fight, so whether you think he looks good or not is subjective. IMO, he is a lesser version of himself each time I see him, so I definitely wouldn't say he looks good. Can he still beat Nate? Yes.

While many think Vitor/Nate will end fast, I think their fight will go past Round 1, as Vitor is a counter fighter who blitzes, and is fine with doing nothing for 4 minutes if he can't find an opening. Nate is either all the way out or in, not a lot of mid-range these days, and he'll be cautious in R1 and respect the blitzing power of the old lion.
 
Pretty heavy on Moyle @+140. Pereira looked awful in her debut and got gifted the win. She landed 1.67 strikes per minute on Laterneou who was dead tired for most of the fight... Atleast Moyle has shown some heart. I think her knees in the clinch may be the difference here.

Slight edge to Moyle, but probably pretty close to 50-50 after you consider how Pereiras home crowd may affect the judging.

with ya.
 
NOT medeiros ITD -149. the fuck.

on it.
 
Those trying to predict moyle/pereira, just play the over. Going to be a close dec either way. Agree it's dog or pass but just pass and parlay the over imo
 
A-typical for me:

i'm betting a total newcomer (newcomer for me) -- i like this figueiredo guy. he's a freakin POWERHOUSE at 125. i think he walks thru anything beltran throws and think he finishes him. ...unless he gasses out late.

i'm not going nuts, just a unit (even tho i previously had beltran in an early RR or two).

if he loses i'll go back to "wait and see" approach w/the new people =P
 
come on man, you are smarter then this. he hasn't 'turned' into a boxer, he has been kicking less because he has fought grapplers it's as simple as that. he started kicking less after edgar managed to time a couple in the first dance they had, and he stopped throwing them against kz because he fractured his foot in the first round, and not because kz 'timed' and checked a kick but because he threw a technique at the same time aldo did.

and what you are saying about holloway being a switch hitter? then how come lamas, pettis and stephens were all landing on holloway just fine? the difference being here that none of them have anywhere near the power aldo has. we are talking about some one that throws with picture perfect technique, foot pointed outward and zero 'hip' tell meaning you get pure shin meets muscle on the poor guy being hit.

Frankie Edgar 4 in 15 minutes (GRAPPLER)
Chad Mendes II 7 in 15 minutes (GRAPPLER)
Frankie II 10 in 15 minutes (GRAPPLER)
Kenny Florian 12. In 25 minutes
Korean zombie 2 in 15 minutes (FOOT INJURY)

stop trying to sidestep facts.

also, max does stand heavy on his front leg. and when did kenny have ''success'' against aldo? aldo kicked kenny twice and after that kenny turned into a 'wrestler' and tried to desperatly hold onto aldo every chance he was given. two kicks is what it took and after that kenny was fighting aldo in a way where he was desperatly trying to not end up on a highlight reel.

every breakdown iv'e heard (including ruebush and co) have all mentioned the fact holloway tend to stand heavy on his front leg, and that he's more the type to absorb strikes rather than avoid them. but according to you this simply isn't true?

pettis broke his hand in the first round, and eventhough he lost the round he was still keeping up fine for the first few, and jeremy stephens did not make holloway look like no worldbeater, and all jeremy did was use legkicks and try to take holloway's head off with every shot.

I've NEVER bet against Aldo, this is the first time and it's not like I'm dropping a nuclear payload. But you are having a bit of confirmation bias I believe. You can argue this either way. Yeah Connor Ruebush and a lot of other analysts are on Aldo, but bro, they're not batting 1000% LOL I've also seen many smart people on Holloway. Go back and watch Aldo against Mark Hominick just to get an idea of some of the success that hallway may be able to have. I know the Jose has progressed but in a lot of ways he's remained static because of repetitive injury's.

There were times when Mark was absolutely tuning Aldo up on the feet forcing the champion to become a wrestler. If Mark had a chin on him and take down D that fight could have went very very differently. Mark was having serious success with his hands especially in the second and third round. But to Jose Aldo's credit, every time MH would start landing he would throw back and land of on something heavy to hurt Hom.

I didn't know that Jose broke his foot and leg KZ fight though. But heading in to round three of their fight KZ was starting to have some real success in the striking. At times Jose was just staring at him . He also started to go to the wrestling that he went with Hom but after early success KZ started stuffing them. It would have been very interesting to see what happened have KZ had not fucked his shoulder.

Look, there's very very very little to criticize Jose Aldo for. He is a technical machine who does nearly everything right and is an A+ Fighter who can do everything. He's a bona fide triple threat and the only way to beat him is to separate him from his consciousness or ostensibly apply so much pressure that you break him with a high output. Through my eyes I believe it's going to be super close. But I think the Holloway is going to be able to reverse engineer the blueprint that Hom + KZ and Chad Mendes had done with the striking except he is a far better striker then those guys and is not going to sit back and let Aldo just smash his legs or keep it on cruise control.

If Aldo does win I think we are going to see a of the Brazilians wrestling and BJJ top game.
 
You don't think location factors into this at all? Medeiros has had one fight outside of the US, a bout in Brazil against Francisco Trinaldo where was on the receiving end of a one sided beatdown.

By contrast, Erick Silva is 6-2 in Brazil (no I'm not counting that bullshit Yamasaki fuck up against Prater).

In such a close affair, could where they're fighting make the difference?


This is correct in a lot of ways. In fact, I have switched my thinking after a bit more research. I had picked Yancey, but never planned to bed him. However, with Erick as a dog upwards of +123 (where I got him) I think he has the value. The thing that swayed me most is that Silva is such a big 170 pound fighter and I believe that's going to have a lot of bearing on this contest. Also, I went back and watched Yancy fight with Jon Macdessi — yes he did win the fight — but there was a lot here that I believe Eric Silva can exploit The shots that the Canadian were landing were clean but do not have much mustard on them. Entering the octagon tonight Erick will probably be around 187 pounds and is definitely going to be the larger man and his wrestling and BJJ might make the difference. At any rate, I do believe that he is the right play and I bet him accordingly.

BOL
 
.5u Lopez dec +400. Line has gotten to a playable point. Think it'll be a close decision one way or another, hoping Lopez control in the clinch and with grappling enough for the W
 
Anyone on the Nate/Belfort O1.5 @ +175? Two older guys, respectful of each other. Reasonable chance they might fight cautiously.
 
.5u Lopez dec +400. Line has gotten to a playable point. Think it'll be a close decision one way or another, hoping Lopez control in the clinch and with grappling enough for the W

whoa. +400!? i just hit some at +365 after you dropped it, i like it.
 
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