UFC 213 - Nunes vs Shevchenko II - Vegas

Status
Not open for further replies.
Just watched Reem and Werdum. In total agreement Reem has looked real good even in defeat to Stipe. He has nearly perfected his new method of out fighting. If tonight goes well i will be betting Reem for sure.

what's tonight have to do with the value on reem tomorrow..?

(i'm gonna be on him, myself.. just the decision prop so far but moneyline forthcoming)
 
James Bochnovic is probably gonna drop back to welterweight.

He's 6'4 but he's not hella ripped. Weighed 200lbs before a real camp. He has fought at 205, 185, and 170 supposedly.
 
About to head over to the public weigh ins, will look out for anything visibly positive or negative.
 
what's tonight have to do with the value on reem tomorrow..?

(i'm gonna be on him, myself.. just the decision prop so far but moneyline forthcoming)

How i do tonight will dictate how big i go
 
Why is Nunes not a clear favourite here?
She beat Shevchenko last year and has since won twice in impressive fashion and vs higher level opponents than Shevchenko's opponents.
 
DId you watch? Any insight if anyone looked exceptionally good/bad?

At work, so can't really watch yet!

nope, was at work, too, and spent a ton of time doing tuf 25 stuff, hehe.. ><
 
The Browne/BF fight's are exactly what I was talking about how Reem can go from owning shit to getting flatlined. Also, if we're going to mention that Rothwell was on a supernatural spree, you should also mention that the majority of those 23 fights had Overeem juiced to the gills in destroyer mode. The more relevant record to reference is him post-Lesnar. There isn't much of a point to padding his record by including fights like James Thompson, Todd Duffee, Fujita, Goodridge, and Tony Sylvester where he was injecting the entire pharmacy to boot.

If you look at his record post-science experiment and remove the Stipe fight, he's 6-3 over 4 years with 3 KO losses, and wins over an 0-5 Arlovski, 43 year old Hunt, a 2-5 Roy Nelson, and Stefan Struve. Even his best recent win in JDS is a fighter that isn't quite what he used to be at 3-4 in 5 years.

I just can't cap him at anything over -150 against a recent champ.

agree pretty much with what you said. I also said the Reem was juiced to the gills. Sixth paragraph third sentence LOL… Best of luck either way brother!
 
fight pass:

giles-bochnovic
bochnovic a pretty unimpressive 201... yea, 201. apparently he's dropping two weight classes after this fight.
giles also not impressive, pretty soft. definitely two of the smaller 205's i've ever seen
bochnovic is 4+" taller


stamann-ware
ware looks meh, as usual.. very unimposing
stamann is a little tank.. pretty jacked. looks like a cross between cruickshank and chad mendes or something
ware is 2-3" taller

andrade-font
andrade absolutely SHREDDED. ludicrous.
font lookin pretty decent.
font is 1" taller

fs1:

muhammad-mein
muhammad looks super solid, as usual.
mein same deal, looks strong as expected
mein is 2+" taller

meerschaert-santos
meerschaert looks very solid, as good as ever for him
santos lookin huge as always, looks excellent.
they're actually very similarly sized. santos maybe a lil thicker.

laprise-camozzi
camozzi looks solid. same as debut
laprise back up to 170 and he looks mediocre as expected.
camozzi is a lot bigger.. 4+" taller

oleinik-browne
oleinik looks ok for him, i guess. can't exactly tell, as he refuses to take shirt off, hehe. in at 241. ediT: he derobed for squareoff.. he looks ok, i guess. looks his age, kinda.
browne in at 247.5, looks pretty darn good.
browne is 5+" taller

ppv:

miller-pettis
miller lookin solid. he's looked better, he's looked worse.
pettis back to 155 & he definitely looks healthier. but he's looked slightly better, too, before
pettis is 2+" taller

werdum-overeem
overeem looks pretty solid, actually a little better than a couple of his last fights, maybe? 253.5
werdum has looked better. i actually think he looks a bit soft, here.. in at 239..

overeem maybe 1" taller, etc, etc, we konw how they match up

blaydes-omielanczuk
blaydes in at 257.5, looks as good as ever
omie in at a stout 248.. same as usual for him
blaydes is the bigger man, no question. like 4-5" taller

whittaker-romero
whittaker lookin damned solid. same as usual here.
romero lookin absurdly jacked. just ridiculous. also same 'ol same 'ol, so no red text!
whittaker is like 2" taller, this i didn't know. romero wider kinda?

shevchenko-nunes
shevchenko looks excellent, as expected. small 135 but looks great. maybe the fittest she's been, in fact.
nunes looks solid for her. she's in shape.
nunes is 2" taller etc, we know this. she's bigger.

--------

pulled trigger on andrade +275 and overeem -125
 
The reason for the sunglasses... a big shiner that was covered in makeup

giphy.gif


giphy.gif
 
I think this is the best Overeem has looked since the Ubereem days. He looked great. Better than his title fight for sure.
 
Can't sleep -- just watched a couple of Trevin Giles fights and I was not very impressed. (Villanueva, Spann) He was clearly losing both of those fights early on and got significantly rocked in both of them as well.

Fast hands may not be enough here.
 
Why is Nunes not a clear favourite here?
She beat Shevchenko last year and has since won twice in impressive fashion and vs higher level opponents than Shevchenko's opponents.

Its 5 rounds this time
 
I still have some props for Werdum, but I jumped over to Overeems side with ml. Most of betting experience seems to lean that way and he did look good at weigh-ins.

I started betting last fall for the first time in my life. I made 20 mma-bets during six months. I won 640 euros and lost 250 euros. Exactly half of those losses were because of Overeem. First I bet him against Stipe and then against him with Hunt, so time to erase those losses from my betting record. I really hope this time I got it right and then again, I also really want to see Werdum to fight for the belt again. Win-win!
 
This I can agree with! Let me clarify and further elucidate on my thinking that Reem should be -275 or so. Firstly, I suppose that I'm being a bit hyperbolic in that figure. However, I just like Reem regarding the stylistic matchup of the two fighters. Now normally if a fighter is -130 and you cap them at -275 you throw down a stack. Well, Reem is the exception to that rule. Mentally you just never know how he will react and he can let his opponent snatch victory from the jaws of defeat like only a Sonnen or Vitor could.

Nevertheless, I am confident, and will be playing him for a couple units. However, I would usually make this a max bet given my personal line as opposed to the books.

Lastly, let me reiterate why I think Reem may be getting a bit underrated and unfairly pigeonholed as a feeble minded glass cannon set on the audio fade list of many.

Remove the Stipe fight — as the champ is crumbling EVERYONE — and you get a fighter who has been KO'd 3 times in 23 fights. That's THREE times in TWENTY-THREE fights in the HW division.

Further, this spans NINE years!

This is extremely impressive considering that he fights in the HW division. That is the the division with the highest percentage of KO finishes. Specifically, as of 2016 you have 77.6% of the UFC heavyweight fights ending in a finish.

So Reem is getting finished 13% of the time over nine years. That's really remarkable actually.

Furthermore, as mentioned, the KO losses were in bizarre circumstances. The first to Browne came in a fight where he nearly beat a man to death and just ran out of steam. He's corrected this approach.

The other KO coming in the 3rd round to Bigfoot Silva where he was up two rounds. In hindsight it's not as bad as it appeared at the time. Like Reem, in 2013 BF was juiced to the fucking gills and not only survived three rounds of Ubereem but shortly thereafter withstood 25-minutes worth of bunker busting bombs from possibly the hardest hitter in the division in Mark Hunt.

His only other loss came to what was at the time a supernatural Ben Rothwell who had won 6 of 7 fights. That was six finishes in seven fights. Including snatching Brendan Schaub's soul, flatlining Matt Mitrione, clubbing Brandon Vera like a caveman and forcing the seemingly "untappable" Josh Barnett to instantaneously tap to a standing guillotine. Once again, it's safe to say, that with hindsight — like BF — that is not as bad a loss as it once seemed.

Fairly or unfairly, at this stage of his career Reem has been permanently typecast in the minds of fans and bettors alike. It's like John Wayne. You couldn't imagineWayne playing the role of an accountant or a newspaper editor. No. "The Duke" is always going to be that whitehat Cowboy or war hero fighting injustice. Similarly, Overeem is always going to be that glass jawed airhead that crumbles under pressure.

Accomplishments be damned, rightly or wrongly, stats or no stats, that's just how it is, Pilgrim.

I was thinking about skipping this fight, but you sold me on Reem. His line also improved :)
 
i'm going huge on shev if i'm profitable by that point.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top