1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,042
    Likes Received:
    6,976
    Will be something to watch for live for sure. Although odds tend to get swayed live quite a bit by serious cuts.
     
  2. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    was looking at cyborg +175 and twood +800, too, hehe. and lol @ cerrone fastest sub paying less than the straight sub prop we got! =D

    agreed FOTN props suck. no bet yet. they will adjust them at some point today. will look at that point.
     
  3. piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,904
    Likes Received:
    319
    Location:
    Sewers
    manuwa dec +700? not implausible. i also think jones sub is worth a shot at +600, cormier's chin makes him unfinishable via strikes and jones has been focussing on bjj on his time off.
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,042
    Likes Received:
    6,976
    Yeah, I was gonna look at Knight/Lamas at +800 or better, Lawler/Cowboy at +700 or better. I'm gonna be gone all day. Will try to check my phone but I doubt either of these get to where I'd want them anyway. Oh well.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,042
    Likes Received:
    6,976
    I like that Manuwa line honestly. It's unlikely, but if it does go the distance most likely he's the one with more gas and finishing stronger.
     
  6. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    Covers the stoppage too. Nice. Bout to get on that. Pretty good value
     
  7. quincy k Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2016
    Messages:
    3,653
    Likes Received:
    0
    the blood will affect his vision if it were to open

    julio caesar chavez went into the first de la hoya fight with a pre-existing cut, it broke open upon the first dlh punch and julio then proceeded to get his nose broken and the fight stopped in the fourth round.

    admittingly, a lot of my decision to bet lamas is based upon knights cut. if the cut does not open and affect the outcome of the fight then i made a mistake.
     
  8. Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2017
    Messages:
    1,146
    Likes Received:
    0
    RockstarZee pro MMA betting tips

    5 units Jason Knight +105
    2 units Cerrone KO/TKO +525
    3 units Jones/Woodley/Manuwa +225
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,042
    Likes Received:
    6,976
    Not necessarily (I guess it depends on odds you got). I lean slightly toward Knight but I like my Lamas dec bet at +230 as a good hedge. I think Knight is more likely to finish, but if Lamas gets his wrestling going and it goes to the cards, he can for sure win a decision.
     
  10. quincy k Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2016
    Messages:
    3,653
    Likes Received:
    0
    i played lamas round two and three as well as his money line so im betting that the cut has not healed. iirc, chavez was one week before his fight with dlh but did not require stitches.

    also consider the cut happened three weeks ago so knight also may have some timing issues in the first round as im assuming he has had zero sparring since then.
     
  11. null Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    16,361
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gabe & Lou like DC, Woodley, over 1½ for Cyborg, Lawler, Knight. I'm against them on every play.

     
  12. null Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    16,361
    Likes Received:
    0
    Love Jimi Manuwa Fastest KO prop at +700. Also like Maia Fastest Sub at +500 and Knight/Lamas FOTN at +700.
     
  13. Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2017
    Messages:
    1,146
    Likes Received:
    0
  14. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    16,987
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    In front of the TV waiting for Game of Thrones S8
    I'm officially on Eric Shelton. Think he's going to be too big and too athletic for Brooks.

    By the way did you see him at the WI's. This kid has the worst case of little man syndrome I've ever seen! Jarred Brooks like a hybridized version of Joe Warren and Junie Browning LOL

    Perhaps Brooks may win the first round, but after that I believe that Eric is going to take over in the latter stages of the fight with size, strength and technique. Eric is immensely underrated. He was good before TUF and already a champion on the regional circuit. However, he came in to TUF 24 seriously unheralded with not much expected from him. That said, he was a single judge away from fighting Demetrious Johnson for the title after almost upsetting a very good to Tim Elliot. I'm glad that that didn't happen because he needs time to develop.

    Having said that, Shelton did very well against the frenetic wild man that is Timothy Elliot. Like mentioned above, Shelton was a single judge from getting that victory. Elliot is a highly athletic and superstrong flyweight with exceptional wrestling and scrambles. This is important because Brooks fights very similar to how Elliot fights, and Shelton has showed that he can fare extremely well vs. the style.

    The biggest difference here between Brooks and Elliot is size. Indeedd Elliot is a bona fide 125 pound fighter who can compete successfully against 135 pound fighters. For his part, Brooks is probably the smallest 125 pound fighter in the UFC roster.

    Shelton was good before TUF, fantastic during TUF and — like we've seen through the series history — he's improved leaps and bounds post TUF.

    The one thing that concerns me is that Shelton is frustratingly apathetic. Then all the sudden he will up the athleticism and explode. He has to remain smart, but he also has to get the truck out of second gear. Make no mistake, Brooks is going to push a chaotic pace and Shelton is going to have to match it. There will be lots of opportunities for Shelton to demonstrate why Brooks is not as good as he thinks it is.

    This should be a close fight that goes to the wire. But Shelton is an underdog and has value. Still though it's a small play.

    As a fan I'm excited as this should be a scramble fest from hell.
     
  15. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    16,987
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    In front of the TV waiting for Game of Thrones S8
    Oh I forgot to add that Brooks reminds me so much of a younger Urijah Faber — and I have a fight of his at the bottom — that perfectly encapsulates my thinking. The similarities jump off the screen.

    While, Urijah had a bit better striking, it was still clumsily delivered and just clunky in its implementation. As with Uriah, I'm certain that Brooks will clean up I want out of this mess as he matures. However, at this point he's very vulnerable defensively. Look no further than Urijah's fight against former UFC lightweight stub Tyson Griffin. It was an absolute war, and all of the sudden Tyson uncorks a right-hand that sleeps Urijah. Importantly, Tyson was never known for his striking power — like at all. It was just that Urijah was so vulnerable to getting clipped due to his chaotic and unkempt striking fundamentals.

    that defense of Lee he left himself vulnerable.

    This was also the case when Urijah fought Mike Brown. Again, Mike Brown was never known to be a knockout artist, but Urijah was wild — like Brooks is — and his attempting a spinning elbow allowed Brown to hand out a free nap and take away his belt in the process.

    So even if Shelton doesn't have lead in his fists, he can take advantage of a chaotic Brooks and use his momentum against him as he catches him flush with something coming in.

    The unique footwork and explosive bursts into Brooks' techniques are what is most similar to TCK. As are his entries into the TD and subsequent guard passes and ensuing submission attempts. The transitions are fluid once he hits the ground, but he fought also often gets over aggressive and gives up position for submission.

    This is a fight from an early Brooks.I'm not sure why this isn't on his record, but it illustrates what I am talking about in relation to Urijah . Keep in mind the guy he's fighting is 0-2 and it was in 2013. But you could see the athleticism and potential immediately.

     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,042
    Likes Received:
    6,976
    Thanks for the update on movement on Lamas/Knight. I decided +700 was good enough for me.
     
  17. CR0W BOXING

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2011
    Messages:
    5,694
    Likes Received:
    0

    The fight is listed under his amateur bouts on MixedMartialArts.com
     
  18. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    16,987
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    In front of the TV waiting for Game of Thrones S8
    I've not really followed him this week (Jones that is) what has he been doing that's awkward?… I know he's been acting weird in a few interviews — where he looks almost… ummm...dare I say… High?

    What other actions do you think he's been awkward in? In a brief summary.

    I'll try to go back and watch some interviews.

    But Robbie looks like he doesn't even want to be here. I just wonder how much the Matt Hughes situation has affected him. They have been best friends since like 1998 or something. It must be devastating. Matt is like Robbie's big brother
     
  19. Dooze Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2009
    Messages:
    1,967
    Likes Received:
    123
    Looking at PotN odds, how do you guys like Maia +600 and Jimi +900?

    With it being a title fight the winner gets it a lot anyway, especially if via finish. Maia won't KO Woodley and I don't see him winning a decision given his age/so-so cardio and it being a short training camp. If he wins, I think about 80% chance of it is via sub. I essentially see it as getting the Maia sub prop as +600 instead of +250.

    Manuwa one is more the fact I see it being a brawl and him just landing on Volkan consistently until he puts him out. He's won it with finishes in his last 2 so maybe again in a fight he has a good chance of getting a KO in?

    It seems to be an award where you need a finish to get it, or a big upset. I think Jones wins a hard fought decision rather than stopping DC, so doubt he gets it, more likely win FotN.

    It's likely a toss up of DC/Jones, Lamas/Knight and maybe Lawler/Cerrone for FotN but I do think PotN is a bit more open and usually requires a finish.
     
  20. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    16,987
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    In front of the TV waiting for Game of Thrones S8
    I almost forgot to mention what I thought when I seen Ortegas man bun. Two words that should be banned from our entire lexicon..

    This is Ortega's future if he continues killing himself to hit 145. That man bun is going to look like Thoros from Game of Thrones fame LOL.

    [​IMG]

    ...."You think you’re fooling anyone with that ‘top knot?’ Bald cunt.”

    – The Hound
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.