UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim

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Yotsuya said:
I think there was one good takedown but Moicano controlled Tukhugov well with rubber guard, attacked with triangle and almost got Tukhugov's back when he tried some weird guard passing jump strike. Tukhugov scored one elbow in that exchange.
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That was actually a slip/KD, got hit while off balance. The speed in which he took Tukhugov's back was crazy
 
Renato decision is the most likely outcome imo.
Then...
Ortega via 3rd round sub or tko lol
Ortega decision.
Renato KO.
Renato sub.

Renato decision prop or ML + Ortega NSC.


@Sadistics @Yotsuya what do you guys think?
 
Tebowned said:
Renato decision is the most likely outcome imo.
Then...
Ortega via 3rd round sub or tko lol
Ortega decision.
Renato KO.
Renato sub.

Renato decision prop or ML + Ortega NSC.


@Sadistics @Yotsuya what do you guys think?
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I could be wrong, but I think Moicano is so different than any of Ortega's previous opponents, that I will just play Moicano ml. If Ortega itd/R3 gets hammered I might even bet against them. Tavares, Brandao and Guida all tried to steamroll Ortega which left them open to getting finished in the 3rd. I don't think it's unthinkable that Moicano would get carried away and empty his gas tank in this fight, but it's unlikely. Based on what I've seen from both fighters I cap Moicano 2:1 favourite, but of course Ortega is a true wild card fighter, so I'm kind of expecting the unexpected, but not betting on it in this match up.
 
Not sure how well Moicano deals with Ortega's kicking game. The body kicks are pretty vicious.
 
So how do we play the Cyborg fight? O1.5 pays 2.85 so I'm putting 0.5U on that. Evinger is tough...
 
really liking a lot of the favs this card. Im currently on villante-(120) gastelum,(-149) bermudez, (-190_ and now laflare. -176) From a "game thoery" perspective i am just not a big fan of betting favs, am i off on this card all of these seems like very good plays where almost every one of these could be -200+ I have the most on villante and bermudez with medium on laflare and gastelum. Trying to convince myself not to take more. Cowboy oliveria is pretty sloppy, its built into the nature of his game. i dont think he can change this. Laflare has to be able to get position and do something from there right? Will play the dec at evens or better odds, have 20 bucks laflare rd 3 +1850, and like the money line at -176, if it gets -150 ill bite big. Any good posters on oliveria at THESE odds? at +200 its different
 
Yotsuya said:
Not sure how well Moicano deals with Ortega's kicking game. The body kicks are pretty vicious.
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moicano's kicking game is much better imo, i really hope the fight is contested at kicking range - ortega's leg will get chewed up.
 
Played Moicano for 2u at +113. I wanna add anther unit but it's hard to tell if odds will get better or not later on. Moicano is pretty unknown by the public and Ortega should have some hype behind him.

I bet against Ortega in his two latest fights, no more 3rd round finishes pls.
 
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Shoulder said:
So how do we play the Cyborg fight? O1.5 pays 2.85 so I'm putting 0.5U on that. Evinger is tough...
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I'm considering this play, but I'm really not confident Evinger can take Cris' power.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Played Moicano for 2u at +213. I wanna add anther unit but it's hard to tell if odds will get better or not later on. Moicano is pretty unknown by the public and Ortega should have some hype behind him.

I bet against Ortega in his two latest fights, no more 3rd round finishes pls.
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man where the hell did you get moicano at that price?
 
Agent Mulder said:
Played Moicano for 2u at +213. I wanna add anther unit but it's hard to tell if odds will get better or not later on. Moicano is pretty unknown by the public and Ortega should have some hype behind him.

I bet against Ortega in his two latest fights, no more 3rd round finishes pls.
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That price share love
 
piglord said:
moicano's kicking game is much better imo, i really hope the fight is contested at kicking range - ortega's leg will get chewed up.
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I agree, but I was just thinking that Ortega's body kicks could limit Moicano's circling and he could get stuck against the cage. Not sure how they would match up there. Then again, I don't think Ortega has enough power to make Moicano just cover and back up like Stephens did, but Ortega is smarter though his stand up game is weaker.
 
Shoulder said:
So how do we play the Cyborg fight? O1.5 pays 2.85 so I'm putting 0.5U on that. Evinger is tough...
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She is, but entirely different animal with Cyborg. She throws with power that isn't just unrivaled in WMMA, it's unrivaled by a HUGE margin. And more than just that, she throws combos that serve a purpose. So often in WMMA you see women putting combos together and they are really just winging rights and lefts with no actual strategy. Cris cuts off the cage well enough (not brilliantly, but her footwork has improved) and once she starts putting her punches together there's an actual plan. She will throw the hook to the body with vicious power then follow it up with the same-side hook to the chin once her opponent drops their arm to protect the body. Most women (if they even bother to go to the body) don't have near the timing or power to hurt anyone with that combo. She's done it multiple times. Just one example of how she's different.

+185 isn't a terrible line for o1.5, but I do doubt Evinger lasts 7.5 minutes in there. For Cris every fight is such a huge deal for her to justify being paid like a star. She really doesn't have a lot of drawing power yet on a big scale, so she knows she has to put on a big show at every opportunity.
 
Renan Barao -130
Aljamain Sterling -110

Over 2.5 -265
Under 2.5 +185
-

Brian Ortega +140
Renato Moicano -180

Over 2.5 -135
Under 2.5 -105
-

Calvin Kattar +230
Andre Fili -310

Over 2.5 -135
Under 2.5 -105
-

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30PM ET)

Kailin Curran +110
Alexandra Albu -150

Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 -110
-

Eric Shelton +110
Jarred Brooks -150

Over 2.5 -270
Under 2.5 +190
-

Josh Burkman +125
Drew Dober -165

Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 -110

----------

i think i like

sterling -110 (line gonna move)
ortega-moicano O2.5 -135
o2.5 albu-curran -130 (line gonna move)
dober -165


i kinda like shelton +110 but not sure where line will move...same w/ortega +140
 
Ugg DynamicLines crashed and I missed everything. Took the Ortega/Moicano and Curran overs at -165, AlJo at -130, and Ortega at +120. Wasn't even close on Dober who had already ballooned.

EDIT: I don't even like that price on the WMMA over. Got flustered
 
took ortega +140 and +120

took dober -165 pretty big (i think burkman is DONE)

took some on O2.5 albu-curran -130

took sterling -110

took ortega-carneiro O2.5 -135
 
shelton-brooks O2.5 is -400 omg.

stabbing at U2.5 +300 out of principle
 
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