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UFC 215 - Johnson vs. Borg - Alberta, Canada

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Jul 26, 2017.

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  1. Jamah Green Belt

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    I highly doubt it, he bet on JDS against Stipe, and he was very mad at him when he lost because of his poor strategy.
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    What % chance do you give Borg? 20% or so? At +700 obviously you don't need to give him much of a shot to put a small value play on him. I'm just wondering what scenario you see unfolding where Borg wins (aside from a fluke KO or injury, which of course you do need to factor in, because weird stuff does happen). Are you thinking he replicates what Elliot did early vs MM but doesn't fade?

    Just wondering what you see Borg's path to victory as, even if it's a narrow one.
     
  3. kenfloshogun Blue Belt

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    Luca's one of those guys who will complain about the strategy of any fighter he bets on who loses. Always an excuse somewhere.
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Na dude Luca doesn't have the balls at all to bet a line that steep
     
  5. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    I write him off cause he got knocked out by Stiepe, Overeem and the Cain beatings. He looked horrible vs Stiepe and he still can't avoid getting his back against the fence.

    He looked good va Ben no doubt, but Ben is tailor made for JDS to look good against. Slow and plodding is what JDS feasts on.

    Would I be surprised if JDS knocked him out in the first? A little, it's heavyweight after all. But so I think JDS can take the power and speed Ngannou delivers? Hell no.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2017
  6. kushn4pushin Orange Belt

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    Damn I have $500 on the O4.5. I feel like it will go to a boring decision. I don't think DJ has the ability to finish Borg.
     
  7. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    Like I said before I do think that Junior is coming back too soon and I'm obviously not crazy about that little habit of his either, so I agree with some of what you're saying. But what I'm saying is that it's not like he's consistently had bad performances. His boxing skills are still there and while I wouldn't say that he looked good in those 2,5 minutes against Stipe I actually liked that he decided to make use of his legs this time, so it's not like he's incapable of making adjustments.

    I guess it all boils down to this for me:

    Do I think that there's enough evidence that JDS is done? No.

    Do I think that there's enough evidence that Ngannou is the HW Messiah (which pretty much is what his current line implies)? No.
     
  8. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Why?
     
  9. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    Im on Francis, I hope his line gets better. He is legit
     
  10. Kowboy Karl Black Belt

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    Junior is finished

    Borg is a nice bet

    These streaks never last forever even though mm is goat
     
  11. kushn4pushin Orange Belt

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    Borg has never been finished and seems pretty durable. DJ has also never been finished. I just have a gut feeling it will go to a decision. However, I am a bit worried because DJ has been finishing his opponents lately. But my bet has already been placed so we'll see what happens.
     
  12. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Idk about betting against a DJ finish. He has a tendency to finish fighters who no one else has. I'm not sure if Borg is skilled enough to survive 25 minutes where other supposedly-durable fighters failed. I mean DJ's a guy who still went for (and completed) a sub with 5 seconds left after dominating all 5 rounds.
     
  13. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Yeah I just feel MMs standup is on a conpletely different level. IMO Borg is worse standing than most of the guys MM has fought lately.
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I don't think Borg is really any worse standing than Reis or Elliot (though he's not better than them either). Cejudo has a bit better boxing, but man he's predictable.

    But...think about how fast Dodson is. And how even he looked relatively slow vs MM (though not as slow as most guys). The speed of MM is just impossible to replicate in training (because there's nobody you can bring in that's as fast as MM obviously) so guys just end up looking frozen against him because they aren't prepared for how fast he is.

    I think Borg is gonna go the route Elliot did and try to hold MM down and win via top position. It's really his only chance, and it's a slim one obviously. Borg is way better with TD's than Reis, so at least he has that going for him. But if he's unsuccesful putting MM on his back, then yeah I gotta agree with you. He's most likely gonna get absolutely pieced up standing.
     
  15. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    In which direction do you guys see the dos santos/ngannou moving in? Right now I can get dos santos +250 at betway, will the insane ngannou hype get people to bet him even at -350? I doubt ngannou will be able to pressure like stipe does, and didn't dos santos have him limping with a legkick or two in the rematch? Which seemed like it kinda forced stipe to go after him and get the finnish. Still the complete lack of progression in dos santos game is a problem, but unless ngannou really goes after it and it becomes a boxing match in the middle of the octagon dos santos should have the advantage even with his shot chin. He also won't have to worry about the potential takedown all the time like he did against stipe
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
  16. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Won't put money on a huge HW fav but even in your scenario all Ng has to do is clip JDS' chin once. It seems like he has that kind of power.
     
  17. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    It sure was enough against Arlovski, but I would not call JDS as shot as him yet. But who knows
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I'd like to think there won't be many out there willing to lay that kind of juice at HW on guy who, while having shown huge power and good promise, is still somewhat raw. But honestly, who knows? People could pile Ngannou in parlays even at these odds. Not me, but there's people who will. How many I guess is the question.
     
  19. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    [​IMG]

    http://www.flocombat.com/article/60...gannou-details-championship-plan#.WY9xQ4G5mf0

    "I moved to Vegas, but it was not easy for my team to move with me," Ngannou said. "But we still keep working together. We study together… I have [also] met a guy here who has helped me with my striking. The guy is Dewey Cooper."

    Cooper, a K-1 kickboxer and WKC heavyweight champion, serves as not just a valuable coach but also a solid stand-in for sparring ahead of Ngannou's clash with dos Santos. However, even though dos Santos is known for his kickboxing skills, Ngannou doesn't expect the former UFC champion to want to stand with him.

    "Don't forget that Junior is a jiu-jitsu guy," Ngannou said. "I think Junior is going to try to take me down, but even if he's a good jiu-jitsu guy, he's not a wrestler. It's going to be difficult for him to get me down."

    And that's what Ngannou is banking on.

    "Like every fight, my game plan will be to defend the takedown and keep striking because I believe in my striking," Ngannou said. "I believe in my punch. So, I'm going to keep the fight up."
     
  20. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Took JDS DEC +800.
     
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