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UFC 215 - Johnson vs. Borg - Alberta, Canada

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Jul 26, 2017.

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  1. rille31 Brown Belt

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    Jds the jiu-itsu guy

    Thats a new one
     
  2. Sapp Silver Belt

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    No way a champion-level guy like JDS should have this line against a still not fully proven prospect. On JDS for 3u.
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    lol wth. when's jds been a bjj guy? does ngannou know that not all brazilians are bjj specialists?
     
  4. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Probably not
     
  5. Aventurero White Belt

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    Am I blind or I am the only one seeing value in RDA even at -200? Neil Magny does not have the attributes that seem to beat RDA. A major grappling advantage i.e. Clay Guida (fight would go way different today at the same weight IMO) + Khabib or some nasty knockout power i.e. Eddie Alvarez + Jeremy Stephens. RDA lost a 48-47 5 round decision to Tony Ferguson, who may be a future title holder and this was after RDA won round 1 and 3.

    I don't give Neil Magny the grappling advantage and he doesn't seem to possess the KO power that would stop RDA. I don't know how his reach and lack of KO power is going to affect a pressure fighter like RDA in a 3 round fight.

    Neil Magny in his last fights has barely come out on top against Hendricks, Gastelum and Erick Silva. His win over Hector Lombard was over a man who is not some beast on steroids anymore. Hector does not look like the same human honestly. USADA seriously transformed him and possibly Hendricks as well. I mentioned that Neil Magny's performances over people who are off steroids and not making weight doesn't seem all that impressive and he has arguably lost all the ones that went to decision includying the Hendricks fight.

    RDA looks just as good physically at 170 as he did at 155. It doesn't seems steroids were a part of RDA's past diet.

    Feedback please. This is just the way I see it. Btw, RDA's line is getting worse. Looks like people feel the same way?
     
  6. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    RDA *might* be the better grappler, but Magny should be stronger and have the size advantage. Someone mentioned earlier how RDA's first WW fight was against a guy who's only 1 inch taller than him in Tarec. Magny is a good 6 inches taller than RDA. Magny should have a clear advantage in the standup here, and I'm not sure how consistently RDA can take guys down up a weight class.

    I think I'd consider RDA more if it was pick'em odds. But at -200 or worse I don't think so
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    there's no question rda is the better grappler, if we're talking about bjj skillset, etc

    and magny clear standup edge.. uhh, idk...
     
  8. sonhow Silver Belt

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    I think Ngannou might be confusing JDS with Werdum :confused:.
     
  9. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    If I had to say someone has a clear standup advantage it's RDA no doubt. I dont think Magny is very good at keeping range anyways. Many refs would have stopped that fight against Lombard, he only came back and won because Lombard was completely gassed.
     
  10. t6p Brown Belt

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    I pretty much agree. I didn't think RDA looked great against Saff and I was kind of looking for a good spot to fade him moving forward but this is not it IMO. I'm just not impressed with Magny. He arguably lost to Hendricks and Gastelum, he was destroyed by Larkin, and Lombard was smashing him before he completely ran out of gas.

    I like the matchup for RDA stylistically as well. Magny's main advantages here are his length and cardio, which shouldn't be a major factor in a 3 rounder.

    I hit RDA's -150 opener for 5u, anticipating the line getting worse. I'll most likely buy out of some of it before the fight, there are still some questions surrounding RDA, but I do think he gets it done here. As the line moves past -200 I think the value is starts to diminish though.
     
  11. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Maybe. I'm just saying Magny should be able to have control there. Also I think it's worth mentioning that Terry Etim is the only opponent RDA's ever faced over 6 ft tall. I think he'll have to look better than he has recently to win here.

    Regardless I don't see any good argument for -200 confidence on him
     
  12. Aventurero White Belt

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    I wouldn't give Magny the standup advantage here. Pettis and Cowboy should have had standup advantages against RDA and you know how that turned out. Magny doesn't possess some nasty KO power in his punches like Heathen and Eddie Alv.

    Can someone research how Pettis and Cowboy's reach compared with RDAs? Sorry, but very tired right now and I need to save energy lol.
     
  13. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Pettis is 1 in. taller and Cowboy is 3 in. Dunno about exact reach. But 6 inches is a bit more extreme than usual
     
  14. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Also a couple things on this. Magny clearly beat Silva, have no idea why that was a split. I don't remember enough about the other 2 fights, but according to MMADecisions only 1/16 in the media scored for Gastelum and 3/23 for Hendricks. He was the rightful winner in each (unless you scored the Gastelum fight a draw).

    RDA has also had steroid accusations. There hasn't been any proof, and iirc he's never been popped for them. But coincidence or not, RDA has not looked like the same RDA that dominated Pettis since the new USADA stuff.
     
  15. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    Odds haven't posted on my betting site yet but if they're similar, I like JDS fight under 1.5, Svchenko, and Magny.

    Ngannou is the most athletic HW I've ever seen and I think he'll be the champ very soon. JDS has been getting knocked out so I see this getting finished inside of two minutes.

    Svchenko should pressure Nunes enough to gas her and win by decision. I don't think Nunes will knock Svchenko out and she has too much muscle mass to win a five round fight against a good technical fighter (see last Romero result).

    RDA hasn't looked good since coming back and should not be -200. Magny hasn't looked great but I have this as a toss up fight and will bet the underdog.

    I'll prolly bet Reis to as he shouldn't be that much of an underdog unless he is fighting DJ.
     
  16. quincy k Brown Belt

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    magny injured his knee early in the larkin fight which was probably the reason he lost so badly

    and imo, larkin would destroy rda as would any top 10 170.

    hes a little guy at ww where he did well by bullying people at 155 behind a granite chin. lke yourself, i was impressed that he did so well against saffadeine, even though saff is no longer a top 10 170.
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Took some ngannou sub +1210... He has a few subs already...

    Lol I'm tempted to bet not cejudo itd -370 or whatever straight... I genuinely don't think he's come close to finishing ANYONE in the ufc.. like ever... And Reis got stopped by just DJ...
     
  18. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Reis has been in trouble before, even against Ulka Sasaki. But yeah, I don't think that's a bad bet. I'd actually give Cejudo respect for the first time if he could get a finish on him
     
  19. t6p Brown Belt

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that knee injury due to the brutal kicks Larkin was landing? RDA has some nasty kicks himself and I think he's going to use them here.

    I also think it remains to be seen if RDA is too small for 170. Look what he did to Cerrone, Diaz, Bendo, etc., who have all had at least some success at 170. He also recently took 2 rounds off of Ferguson, maybe the best 155'er in the world right now and a guy who could certainly have a lot of success at 170 if he were to ever move up.
     
  20. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    Devil's advocate... Larkin killed him with calf kicks but he's orthodox. RDA is southpaw and can't get the same angle.
    RDA's best leg kick performance was against flat footed nate diaz who is also a southpaw.
     
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