I didn't say I "knew" it. I said my stat model had Moras as better and wanted to understand what information the model may have missed. I never implied that my model is the ultimate arbiter of UFC truth, as it is new and has plenty of flaws. You just took it that way, which is unfair to me when most of my pre-fight posts were logical + helpful arguments for winning underdogs. Don't get me wrong-- the model rates Moras as bad. It merely rates AES as an ultrabad joke of embarrassing proportions, which frankly doesn't seem wrong.