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UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 4, 2017.

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  1. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    What about fighting 2 rounds vs Ferguson?

    Lee's past four fights have ended in round 1 or 2 and Ferguson is a notoriously slow starter. The way I see Lee winning is tagging Tony early like Lando or Trujillo did, and then having the submission skills to finish on the ground.

    Also took Lee sub +569, rd 1 +1178, rd 2 +1647, rd 3 +2377. Only bet a little on +221, I'm not dripping with confidence here.
     
  2. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    I hear ya I just think a lot of times these big weight cuts zap these guys energies and they come out flat. Not saying lee can't catch him early but ferguson is a tough guy to put away and this weight cut puts lee at a big disadvantage in the later rounds.
     
  3. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I think Lee Rd 1 is the best bet there. By the second rd Ferguson will be getting his groove. Even in past fights where he had trouble in the first he was back on track by the second or end of the first.
     
  4. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Double edge sword also. If Lee goes after him in the first but doesn't get a stop he will just sap that energy
     
  5. Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    Look at the shape Stamann is in, hell of a fighter
    Look at the shape Green is in, hell of a fighter
     
  6. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Probably just talk but in a recent interview Walt said he has a slick sub game and strong top control, said he might go for a TD
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    I'm not betting +1200 Walt sub so I'll feel doubly dumb!
     
  8. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Not being 100% fighting Ferg is always going to be a difficult ask. FFS, you're going against a man with the athleticism of an Anthony Pettis, the conditioning of a Nick Diaz and the crazy as fuck mentality and granite chin of a Diego Sanchez. Additionally, he's a D1 wrestler with a black belt with his hands and his BJJ. He is just one of those guys that is just a nightmare to fight. The type of guy that when Sean Shelby mentions his name your cell phone abruptly loses service lol.
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ferg itd -140 now, makes more sense to bet -5.5 at -160. There's a chance Ferg is more systematic in how he attacks Lee (like he did vs RDA) and he ends up winning a clear decision. Yeah, I still think he finishes, but with odds where they are his pt spread makes way more sense.
     
  10. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Is it just me or did Werdum look like shit?
     
  11. ChoKuRei Purple Belt Platinum Member

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    This guy seems like he has no dedication. He is about to get McDoomed tomorrow night. Bye bye to bellator black beast
     
  12. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    I agree completely I did a parlay of ferg points and demetrius points at -109
     
  13. Reign Supreme Green Belt

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    I'm sure I am reaching here, but put 1u on Lee KO/TKO at +1033.
     
  14. ChoKuRei Purple Belt Platinum Member

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    Lol.
     
  15. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    slightly sub par for him. wasn't werdum-JDS shape, but still not great.

    finally decided on a way to play this fight: small.

    0.35u werdum sub +285 and 0.15u fight ends in RD3 +700
     
  16. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Not a D1 wrestler and not a BB, but yeah Ferguson is a beast.
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Juco National champ though right?

    I think his MMA wrestling is underrated too because he ends up on bottom at times due to rolling for leglocks and other crazy entrances he uses. He's so confident in his guard he just doesn't care. But when he wants to show his wrestling chops, he's a legit top tier MMA wrestler. Maybe not with traditional TD's, but his counter wrestling is great. And his front headlock (and snapdown) might be the best in MMA.
     
  18. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I'm really not worried about Tony being out wrestled for a large amount of time. Especially with the weight cut
     
  19. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    No, he didn't wrestle JUCO. He was a club wrestler.
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ahh okay that's it. I'm not sure how a national champ club wrestler would stack up against a juco national champ. Neither on scholarship or anything, I can't imagine there's a huge difference? Anyway, Ferg has obviously proven to be plenty athletic enough.
     
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