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UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 4, 2017.

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  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    The problem for Black Beast is that he's at his best when he's getting top position and going Donkey Kong and smashing dudes from that spot. Does he really want to mess with Werdum's guard? it's HW, so yeah BB could land something big standing too, but the Travis Browne that basically couldn't touch Werdum over a full FORTY MINUTES of fighting damn near had BB out in their fight before Browne gassed and got stopped.

    So basically, yeah, Werdum might have fallen off. Maybe even to a significant degree. And maybe it's due to USADA related reasons. Maybe. But even so, he almost stopped Overeem in rd 3 in his last fight. He's way more skilled than BB. And the fact he has the best HW guard in the history of MMA probably neutralzes BB's best weapon.
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I've been debating with myself how much stock to put into Lee's issues with the cut. Sometimes scales are just calibrated a little differently which can account for some of it. But a couple things are leading me to believe it's very likely going to be a factor, and that Lee really might see some negative physical affects from it.

    First, the fact he was spotted leaning on his trainer as they walked through a hallway (I think on the way to cutting the extra lb). That's not just "mistiming" your cut. That's you being absolutely drained by it, esp when everyone is talking about how awful you look.

    Second, him tweeting "I'll die 'bout this shit" or whatever. Yeah, so if it was just "no big deal" and you weren't worried about any of it, you don't tweet that.

    I'm adding to my Ferg -5.5 at -160. I really am not sure Lee is gonna have more than 10 minutes of real energy given the pace that Ferg likely pushes. Will Lee be dangerous early? Yeah. But after that it's easy to see him fading...badly.
     
  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Right on.

    I think my favorite plays of this card are Cody +145 and Ferg/Lee o2.5 –115 and I think I'll put 3.00 unit on both.
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    With you on Cody for sure. I think I like Ferg/Lee o2.5 too at close to evens. My issue is I'm already big on Ferg itd and -5.5, and if Lee wins it's most likely early. So if I take the o2.5 and Lee somehow does finish Ferg early, I'm really fucked LOL.
     
  5. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Harris Fastest KO +400 is awesome
     
  6. t6p Brown Belt

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    I'm big on Ferguson but Lee sub +704, Lee rd1 +1325 and even Lee NSC +350 are all nice lines IMO. I'm taking sub and round 1 small as hedges to my Ferg ML bet.
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah that's nice, but +325 now.

    I'm actually gonna hit Werdum fastest KO at +1200. Browne damn near had BB out in rd 1, Werdum capable of it too.
     
  8. AxeMurderer Orange Belt

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    I could be way off, but I don’t think werdum will do much more than jabs and kicks and win my decision. I don’t think he will want to get in range too much to chance getting clipped by Lewis. As of now I have no bet but not werdum itd would be it if I decide to bet this one.

    If lee slows down at all he will get finished. The pace that ferg sets and the weigh cut almost makes this a certainty. Lee has 1 maybe 2 rounds to finish a very durable ferg or shit goes south fast. Still no bet for me on this but ferg itd and or -5.5 with lee by sub or round 1 as small hedge.
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I will be interested to see what Werdum does. You could be right, but after inactivity cost him in his last fight, he might be willing to engage more. Plus BB isn't the striker Overeem is. And if BB starts to tire, Werdum could start teeing off. (Although Werdum's weight has me a little concerned about his cardio too...)
     
  10. Papi Green Belt

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    I think werdums going to front teep him 3 or 4 times to the tummy and BB is gonna already be hurt to the body with his back to the cage looking very labored. Theres no reason werdum dont win this. If at this point in his career he cant get past a fighter like BB its time to hang it up
     
  11. Jamah Green Belt

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    Who is going to be the underdog that nobody talked about that wins tonight? Moraga?
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    God, such better prices than i got on Lee sub and lee rd1. I like
     
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Haven't seen anyone really on godbeer moraga, hehe. Or Borg..
     
  14. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    I would never bet Moraga ML, but I took a stab at Moraga sub +1600

    Bibulatov is really aggressive and Moraga is probably the best grappler he has faced. I could see his aggressive ways getting into him a bad position where Moraga can finish. Short of that outcome, this fight is Bibs all the way.

    Godbeer I'm not touching. Just have some action on u1.5 bc I think Walt will make quick work of him.
     
  15. Caicara Purple Belt

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    I'm on Moraga. Count me in on his DEC line ar +800

    Another thing: I'm not on Godbeer, but Harris surely has problems on being hit. I have a small fodder play at U1.5 for the fight just in case.
     
  16. vkram Brown Belt

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    Anyone else think that there is some value in fight doesn't go the distance for Duquesnoy/Stamman?
     
  17. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Yeah. I'm on the under. One Duquesnoy elbow can finish the fight at any time, and Cody has a chance of finishing as well. I think it should be a fave to finish ITD
     
  18. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    I'm on a bunch of dogs small and werdum.

    Lee, borg, stamman, Beltran and maybe some others.
     
  19. t6p Brown Belt

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    I'm likely going to be on Moraga and Borg very small, still thinking how I want to play them though.
     
  20. Jamah Green Belt

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    ok fuck it , 0.4u Moraga
     
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