I really wouldn't bet on Moraga ML or decision. He's just a hair better than the competition that Bibulatov regularly mops up. And Moraga doesn't tend to do well vs superior competition. Couldn't give MM, Benavidez, or Dodson a scare. And frankly he should be 0-3 in decisions vs middling competition: Pettis, Pereira, Ortiz (I know Pettis is > middling, but he was only 23 then and still has no finishes-- Bibulatov is tougher) Bibulatov is somewhere in between his 3 tough matchups and 3 middling matchups, and arguably closer to the tough ones. Dude is strong + athletic with versatile striking + grappling and I don't think he's particularly likely to lose outside of a sneaky submission.