Ferguson is my favorite fighter but there's no way I can play him at these odds. He's not exactly the most defensively conscious guy and he takes a lot risks. Lee has gotten so good at finding opportunities to take the back, whether that being during a transition/scramble (Chiesa, Matthews) or forcing you to give up your back from top position (Trinaldo, Mustafaev). Once he's there he's just an absolute beast and he's excellent at securing and keeping the body triangle.
That said, I do think Ferg is going to be end up being too much for him right now. I have a really hard time seeing Lee having the cardio to sustain a wrestling heavy gameplan over 5 rounds, especially against a guy with this type of cardio, pace and durability. I also think he's going to struggle with Ferguson's awkward striking style.
My biggest concern is what could happen if Lee is having success with his wrestling early in the fight and he manages to get Tony's back. I'm looking forward to seeing props but at this point I'm leaning towards hoping that Lee wins the first round or two and possibly getting some nice live odds on Ferg.