UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

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The D'arce choke is going to be a big weapon for Ferguson in this fight. If Lee gets shoots for a sloppy takedown, he is going to get caught.
 
Ferguson is my favorite fighter but there's no way I can play him at these odds. He's not exactly the most defensively conscious guy and he takes a lot risks. Lee has gotten so good at finding opportunities to take the back, whether that being during a transition/scramble (Chiesa, Matthews) or forcing you to give up your back from top position (Trinaldo, Mustafaev). Once he's there he's just an absolute beast and he's excellent at securing and keeping the body triangle.

That said, I do think Ferg is going to be end up being too much for him right now. I have a really hard time seeing Lee having the cardio to sustain a wrestling heavy gameplan over 5 rounds, especially against a guy with this type of cardio, pace and durability. I also think he's going to struggle with Ferguson's awkward striking style.

My biggest concern is what could happen if Lee is having success with his wrestling early in the fight and he manages to get Tony's back. I'm looking forward to seeing props but at this point I'm leaning towards hoping that Lee wins the first round or two and possibly getting some nice live odds on Ferg.
 
http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Re...ghtweight-Championship-Bout-at-UFC-216-126865

Herb Dean will be the third man in the cage when Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee square off for the interim lightweight title at UFC 216.

The Nevada Athletic Commission on Monday announced referee and judging assignments for the headlining bout, which takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Oct. 7. Chris Lee, Junichiro Mamijo and Derek Cleary will score the contest from cageside.

Ferguson is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak that includes triumphs over the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Edson Barboza, Josh Thomson and Gleison Tibau, among others. “El Cucuy” has won 12 of his 13 Octagon appearances overall and is 22-3 since beginning his professional career in 2008.

Lee, 25, enters the matchup with Ferguson on a five-fight winning streak. Most recently, “The Motown Phenom” submitted Michael Chiesa with a first-round guillotine choke at UFC Fight Night 112. Lee is 9-2 during his tenure with the Las Vegas-based promotion.
Read more at http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Re...ip-Bout-at-UFC-216-126865#2lTQcUbEHYEsOa5L.99

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not sure how relevant this is for capping purposes, but thought i'd s hare
 
Maxed Ferg/Lee ends ITD at -235 and -240. Disappointed in Dunham dec and Werdum dec prices
 
Any opinions on not Werdum itd -176?
Hmm I have to give it some more thought but I think I like it. Lewis is durable and I dont see this hitting the mat.
Lewis KO is possible if Werdum doesn't take him seriously and respects his power.
 
Feel like this is one of the worst possible matchups for Lewis. Almost all of his wins come from him falling on top of guys when they both get tired, and then they can't get up. Won't be a problem with Werdum; only risk is that he seems to have a mental lapse every fight and could get clipped.

I'm all aboard the line of thinking that Werdum just picks him apart to a decision
 
I like Doom so much better than Ferguson. As long as he's in shape

Doom just looked so bad against Travis Browne. If Doom copies Browne's kicking strategy then it could be interesting.
 
2 close fights I hate your parlay... GL tho.
How is werdum/lewis a close matchup? I feel like fabricio makes black beast look like an amateur in there worse than mark hunt did..
 
Doom just looked so bad against Travis Browne. If Doom copies Browne's kicking strategy then it could be interesting.

Did he really look that bad vs Browne? I'd say he was overly passive to compensate for being overly aggressive vs Stipe, but he still was doing far more damage between the 2 fighters.
 
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