UFC 218 - Holloway vs Aldo II - Detroit

[betterthanjones]

It all comes down to whether Felder can land something decent enough, and early enough. I haven't watched much of him lately but in my distant faded memories Felder tends to wait a too long before committing to something, if anything.

There was this one fight I can't remember against who he was just staring the dude down c'mon man 30-27 for staring but land something.

 

[mkess101]

You are giving Felder's ability to keep this standing WAY too much credit.

I don't think it's a "lock" that Felder keeps it standing, but he's shown pretty good TDD and Olive's ability to get fights to the mat against guys who absolutely don't want to grapple is pretty average.

Brooks has shown himself to be a bit of a flake. Not saying it's irrelevant that Olive took him down and handled him, but it's not that big a deal in hindsight.

And it's not that I think Olive sucks or Felder walks through him easily. I just don't understand the odds is all. If was trumpeting Felder here and he was -160 that's one thing, but he's +110! That's just stupid to me.

 

[mkess101]

It all comes down to whether Felder can land something decent enough, and early enough. I haven't watched much of him lately but in my distant faded memories Felder tends to wait a too long before committing to something, if anything.

There was this one fight I can't remember against who he was just staring the dude down c'mon man 30-27 for staring but land something.

Agree, it's been the one major flaw in Felder's game in the past. Inactivity. I just don't see that being a big factor. Olive is extremely hittable, and isn't a huge volume striker himself. Even if Felder isn't as aggressive with his striking as he should be tonight, I don't see Olive being the guy to make him pay for it.

 

[cagebrain]

Don't follow the chicks so much, can someone explain to me why Magana is still in the organisation? She's lost her last 5 fights.

Five!

It's not like she's that hot.

shes got an ass on her and thats about it

 

[ivanilich]

Aldo's wife to a brazilian journalist on 11/30: "I feel he is tired and wants to breath new air. He is not as motivated as he used to be... I like MMA more than him. I'm a fan, he is not. He is full of this and wishes for new challenges, something to motivate him."

 

[turbozed]

I like Crowder Decision +650.

There are some red flags when it comes to Willis I think. Mulheron I think isn't a legit heavyweight. Size-wise I mean. If you look at his legs, he's got the frame of a LHW. He may be even more top heavy than Big Country. Despite this, Willis wasn't really overpowering him despite winning on the ground. Crowder is the same weight as Mulheron, but by how lean he is Crowder is "bigger" in terms of functional weight. Crowder was able to handle Mayes (262 lbs and relatively lean himself) in a very high paced fight. The two looked gassed but they were doing significantly more grappling and at a higher pace than Mulheron/Willis. Despite this, Willis looked pretty slowed down in the 3rd round and took a break against the cage before taking Mulheron down (easy to do against someone who's legs and hips are half the size of his).

Crowder may have a way to win this if he clinches up and grinds Willis, assuming Willis doesn't have a particularly good ground game. This is really the question mark. Though we can criticize Crowder for not doing much with positional control, at least he was able to find himself in better positions in his fight. This might be enough to win it. Willis' range striking is pretty sharp so Crowder will have a problem with that. But I don't think Willis has 1 punch KO power. Looks like he retracts his punches and stays balanced which is good for scoring points but maybe means Crowder can take a few coming in.

 

[RuthlessRich]

Looking to play willis and crowder over 1.5 at -160

 

[t6p]

I don't think it's a "lock" that Felder keeps it standing, but he's shown pretty good TDD and Olive's ability to get fights to the mat against guys who absolutely don't want to grapple is pretty average.

Brooks has shown himself to be a bit of a flake. Not saying it's irrelevant that Olive took him down and handled him, but it's not that big a deal in hindsight.

And it's not that I think Olive sucks or Felder walks through him easily. I just don't understand the odds is all. If was trumpeting Felder here and he was -160 that's one thing, but he's +110! That's just stupid to me.

I think a little more highly of Olives ability to get fights where he wants them than you do, but still I'm on Felder at + money here (with an Olives sub hedge).

Olives may not have great takedowns in the traditional sense but he's sneaky with trips from the clinch and he can transition to the back in split second. He also likes to initiate the clinch, press guys against the cage and work from there. This is an area where I think he needs to be very careful against Felder. Felder has some nasty elbows and knees, I can easily see him hurting Olives in this type of situation.

On the feet, I agree Felder has the advantage. I was very impressed with him against Barb even though he lost. Oliveira's striking has improved over the years, but he mainly uses it to setup his grappling IMO and Felder has proven that he has an iron jaw.

 

[turbozed]

Looking to play willis and crowder over 1.5 at -160

I like this too, for the same reasons I like Crowder DEC +650

 

[RuthlessRich]

I like this too, for the same reasons I like Crowder DEC +650

Yeah debating on whether I should play fight goes the distance at +135 as well. It may turn out to be one of those slower heavyweight fights that go the distance, definitely more confident with over 1.5 tho

 

[mkess101]

I'm liking the over props for KO/TKO tonight. In looking at it:

Crowder/Willis-could definitely end in a KO, it's HW obviously.
Magana/Cooper-pretty unlikely KO
Kimball/Reyes-likely KO for Reyes
Alhassan/Homasi-definitely could end in a KO
Casey/Herrig-unlikely KO
Klose/Teymur-unlikely but wouldn't be crazy
Madeiros/Brazilian Cowboy-could definitely end in KO
Felder/Olive-Felder could for sure KO Olive
Waterson/Torres-almost no chance
Alvarez/Gaethje-likely ends in KO
Pettis/Cejudo-unlikely
Reem/Ngannou-likely ends in KO
Max/Aldo-very good chance ends in KO again

So out of 13 fights, you have 4-5 that are unlikely to end in KO, 4-5 that are likely to end in KO, and 3-5 that definitely could, but you might not say are super likely to.

I'm playing o5.5 KO/TKO and up at increasing + odds. I think we see a good amount of KO's tonight.

 

[thesharktank]

I got in on Oliveira at the start of the week at +120. I think Felder gets too much respect from bettors because of his techincal style and the start to his UFC career (he entered undefeated and got big hype off his spinning backfist KO of Castillo). I was quite impressed with his last perfomance against Steve Ray, but haven't been over the course of his UFC career. Hes too tentative and his striking defense is actually subpar (most notable was his destruction at the hands of Trinaldo). His game really needs an offensive wresting aspect to seal or steal all the close rounds he has on the feet, but he has none. I don't think Oliveira will be able to piece him up standing, he obviously lacks the ability to fight 3 consistent rounds on the feet and has lots of wholes in his D, but he will land shots on Felder.

Look at Oliveira's last opponents - Will Brooks, Lamas, Pettis, Jury, Holloway, Lentz, Jeremy Stephens (4 -3 record). He is a bit of an enigma as his performances vary quite widely amongst and even within fights, but I wouldn't be surpised to see him run through Felder. On the other hand, you're hoping for a poor performance out of Charles, or a nail biter decision and thats only if Felders TDD holds up.

 

[mkess101]

I got in on Oliveira at the start of the week at +120. I think Felder gets too much respect from bettors because of his techincal style and the start to his UFC career (he entered undefeated and got big hype off his spinning backfist KO of Castillo). I was quite impressed with his last perfomance against Steve Ray, but haven't been over the course of his UFC career. Hes too tentative and his striking defense is actually subpar (most notable was his destruction at the hands of Trinaldo). His game really needs an offensive wresting aspect to seal or steal all the close rounds he has on the feet, but he has none. I don't think Oliveira will be able to piece him up standing, he obviously lacks the ability to fight 3 consistent rounds on the feet and has lots of wholes in his D, but he will land shots on Felder.

Look at Oliveira's last opponents - Will Brooks, Lamas, Pettis, Jury, Holloway, Lentz, Jeremy Stephens (4 -3 record). He is a bit of an enigma as his performances vary quite widely amongst and even within fights, but I wouldn't be surpised to see him run through Felder. On the other hand, you're hoping for a poor performance out of Charles, or a nail biter decision and thats only if Felders TDD holds up.

Both guys have defensive holes standing. The difference is that Felder has a granite chin and even in the Trinaldo fight was landing his own shots despite having the fight stopped due to the cut. Meanwhile Olive has shown on multiple occasions he reacts poorly to getting hit.

That's not to say he doesn't have a path to victory, he obviously does. He's a slick grappler with good subs. But if this does end up a standup fight, thinking there's any chance at all that Olive "runs through" Felder is just insane. So if both guys are landing shots (which it seems like you agree both will), I'll take the guy with crisper striking and more power who also happens to have a much better chin.

 

[turbozed]

Event starting in about 15 mins. Good luck to everyone here!

 

[thesharktank]

But if this does end up a standup fight, thinking there's any chance at all that Olive "runs through" Felder is just insane. So if both guys are landing shots (which it seems like you agree both will), I'll take the guy with crisper striking and more power who also happens to have a much better chin.

The 'running through' occurs when he has more success than expected on the feet, is able to land solidly and chains that into grappling and getting the back which he does very very well when hes on his game. This is one of the closest fights on the card imo, but I favor Oliveira. And I think Trinaldo was badly beating Felder and on his way to a 30-27 UD. Great chin from Felder no doubt that held up as I expected it would, but I ended up losing badly as all my money was on Trinaldo by dec.

 

[Joedaman55]

Live betting all day, $20 on Mags, +385

Prolly betting Aldo, Ngannou, Gautche, Oliveira

 

[RuthlessRich]

Small bet on crowder vs willis over 1.5 rounds hopefully they play it calm and no one scores a first round KO

 

[Caicara]

When does it start exactly?

 

[iGnP]

i need one of the first three dogs to come through

 

[mkess101]

The 'running through' occurs when he has more success than expected on the feet, is able to land solidly and chains that into grappling and getting the back which he does very very well when hes on his game. This is one of the closest fights on the card imo, but I favor Oliveira. And I think Trinaldo was badly beating Felder and on his way to a 30-27 UD. Great chin from Felder no doubt that held up as I expected it would, but I ended up losing badly as all my money was on Trinaldo by dec.

Trinaldo was winning, I agree. But it was competitive, and Felder was landing too. The cut made it moot.

Like you said, Olive is a bit of a flakey enigma. Talented, he does have slick transitions and subs. But he can be hit, and doesn't always react well when he is hit. So how is it not equally as likely that Felder "runs through" Olive when both guys land a few shots but one eats them easily and the other starts looking for somewhere to hide?

All this said, you bet Olive as a dog so that definitely changes the conversation. I like Felder at the current dog odds better (and cannot imagine anyone laying juice on Olive here) but the fact you have Olive at +120 makes it a play I can't criticize much at all.