What's wrong with Magny's durability? Larkin's the only one to really kick his ass, and Lorenz Larkin when he's on point can do that to most guys at 185 or below. I think you're substantially overrating both Condit's power, and how he's kept up with the MMA metagame. His guard's not going to stop Magny from wrestlefucking, and I think even on the feet you'll see a bunch of iffy-split rounds where they both land volume and neither really manages to take it decisively.
I see this either going to a contentious split decision, where Magny's won 1 round clearly by top-control, and there are 2 50-50 rounds that get debated over for the next month. Or Condit just not having the willpower and drive to keep struggling out of shit positions on his back, and getting TKO'd/Sub'd. Lawler gave Condit the fight that Condit wanted, where it was a pure striking battle and Lawler was willing to concede both pace and volume to Condit for the most part. I just think there's a bigger chance than most like to think about that Magny grounds Condit in the first and Condit just doesn't have it any more. Also consider that Jackson's itself is in a slump.
ya the opening odds was pretty much what i was expecting on Condit vs Magny
