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UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

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  1. null Gold Belt

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    Yoel wins in round 1 is a decent price at +550 on BM in case anyone wants to hedge Rockhold action or thinks he may go in aggressively and try to KO Luke early.
     
  2. JkMMA Brown Belt

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    I parlay bet on tai and li jingliang with a little money line on them too. I hope they fuckin win lol. I also money line bet on Ben nguyen.
     
  3. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I was thinking the same thing but Yoel really tries to pull an Anderson Silva early- using his feints and gauging his opponents tendencies so he can explode in later rounds. Off the top of my head, I dont know when his last round 1 finish was. But yeah, +550 is nice
     
  4. piglord Black Belt

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    yeah i agree. luke isn't the most articulate guy at the best of times but that interview was some straight johnny hendricks crystal meth shit.

    luke is obviously having a hard time with the weight cut. i thought he looked terrible on the scales against branch. he needs to move up to 205, your body isn't the same in your early 30s as it is in your mid 20s.
     
  5. piglord Black Belt

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    did formiga make weight on second attempt?
     
  6. turbozed Red Belt

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    Yeah he did. He was only 0.16 lbs over anyway so not a big deal.
     
  7. molest Purple Belt

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    Thats pretty bad for my Yoel bet, i kind of completely ignored the short notice because he was supposed to fight Branch in 2 weeks anyway.
     
  8. vkram Brown Belt

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    I don’t think it should affect him that much really. He didn’t really seem like he killed himself during the two extra hours.
     
  9. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Yeah. That's probably the result of a faulty scale in his hotel, moreso than concertedly missing weight.
     
  10. Bloodfaya White Belt

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    So, I assume the general expectation on Tuivasa is a fairly quick T/KO?...but “wins by points” @14.0 is a liiiiittle bit tempting. Maybe even a parlay with Pedro on “ko or points” @2.0 for a total of 28.0....
    Just small money for the fun of it, what do you think?
     
  11. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Pedro's got a few clubs/subs, and Safarov's tough as nails.

    Maybe the Matthews' line movement is Aussie books hedging their exposure from Australian bettors? I've always kind of wondered if inter-book hedging was a thing.
     
  12. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    Isn’t Brown just the type of fighter who could bring out the brawler in Kim? I think Kim will start pretty safe but could end up banging. I like Brown R3 (19.0), Brown ko/tko (7.8) and u2.5 (2.5). He needs the win and will go for broke R3 if needed. Then again, Kim already has two UFC losses by R3 tko. Will that mean, that he will try play it extra safe in R3 and rather lose dec than risk another ko? His team mate just got ko’d for getting careless against Stephens.
     
  13. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Everyone lose bets, but everyone does not ridicule others for their picks just because they are betting the other side
     
  14. pytycrys Purple Belt

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    We have Romero +800 R1 at Ladbrokes...
    I still like it, even though he missed weight...He's an animal.
     
  15. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    This. Trying to predict where Romero's at is near impossible because he's a lunatic.
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    You pretty much HAVE to bet that line. Even if you are REALLY confident Luke wins, that line is just way, WAY off. Luke's boxing just isn't very good. At kicking range he's a solid striker, but when he's crowded he freezes up and is WAY too hittable. Like @iGnP said, Yoel isn't necessarily the guy that rushes in for the immediate kill, but with his power there's a very real chance he catches Luke with something early, even if he's not blitzing him looking for the quick finish.

    Maybe it was ring rust vs Branch. Maybe. But for those who are just SOOOOO confident in Luke, how the hell does the early part of that fight not give you pause? Branch is a solid fighter, and Luke survived and came back for a nice win. But if that's someone who hits like Yoel tagging him, Luke no way survives that. Bisping isn't a big puncher and Luke couldn't handle getting hit clean by him either.

    This is a fight where there are VERY clear paths to victory for both guys AND where both guys have glaring weaknesses. Yoel is easily the more explosive, powerful guy who can finish fights quickly either standing or with gnp. His wrestling speaks for itself, although in MMA he's been less inclined to try to take guys down than would be expected. In this fight, it's his TDD that might be key. But he (depending on the pace of the fight) has 10-15 minutes worth of cardio, tops. Luke has great kicks, and is a beast top control grappler who is impossible to deal with if he gets guys on their backs. But his boxing is bad (at least if he's forced to fight in close quarters). He doesn't seem to react the best to getting hit (at least recently). Essentially, he doesn't do well with being pressured.

    So, my view is that in a fight that really could go either way, bet the dog. If I was going to be home to watch this, I'd be of course looking to live bet Luke after rd 2 depending on what the fight looked like and how much energy Yoel was forced to expend early. But in this spot, making a big bet and paying juice on Luke? Man, I don't get it. Because I can't watch this card live and have no chance to live bet, I am keeping all my action pretty small outside a decent sized bet on Li.
     
  17. Card Silver Belt

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  18. Card Silver Belt

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  19. quincy k Brown Belt

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    i would be more concerned with lukes chin. 40-year-old usada anderson did get knocked down by a bisping left hook but was never in trouble, rockhold folded up like a 5.00 kmart lawn chair by what was essentially the same punch...in the first two minutes of the fight
     
  20. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    Can't be helping dat chin much
     
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