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UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

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  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Couple other very small stabs I'm taking:

    Ishihara dec +350. I think the fight will be close and go to the cards. Quinonez won't stop coming, but I think Ishi can have some early success. Maybe enough to get the nod on the cards.

    Formiga KO/TKO +1350. I know, I know, he has ZERO wins by KO or TKO in 25 fights (20 wins). BUT, 5 of Ben's 6 losses are by KO or TKO. And Ben showed vs Smolka that if he gets his back taken, he's willing to roll and get mounted as opposed to giving up the RNC. Yeah, if Formiga wins itd the sub is more likely. A lot more likely. But imo not 4 times as likely. Not against this opponent anyway.

    Matthews sub +725. People got this at a much better line I think, kinda sucks for me. This is just my hedge on all my Li action. Matthews is really aggressive with his grappling. I think if he wins, it's most likely by snatching a sub.

    Tuivasa dec +724 and fight goes distance +350. If (and it's a huge "if" I know) Tuivasa doesn't get Asker out of there early, this could be two gassed HW's that don't have enough left in the tank to finish each other. We've seen it before enough times...
     
  2. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    ME is still 5 rounds, right?
     
  3. vkram Brown Belt

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    Yes, it's still a title fight for Luke and all title fights are 5 rounds, also nearly all main events are 5 rounds unless it's on super short notice. Last main event that was 3 rounds was Smolka vs Holohan after Duffy/Poirier fell through the week of the fight.
     
  4. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    Good to know, thanks for dropping that knowledge
     
  5. t6p Brown Belt

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    Like what’s seems to be everyone else, I favor Li here. With that said I’m playing Matthews NSC +280, ITD +643 and KO +2650 all small. Li’s defense is not exactly his best attribute and 4 of Matthews 5 UFC wins have been by stoppage. I have to take the shot at these prices.
     
  6. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Abe all day, too fast and sharp on the feet and his judo>Jumeaus shitty wrestling
     
  7. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Love it, thanks for pointing out. Played all the way from 4.5 up as well.
     
  8. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Agreed I’d bet that if available.
     
  9. t6p Brown Belt

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    Hunt NSC -104
     
  10. Jamah Green Belt

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    I think that Hunt vs Blaydes will go to decision.
    Blaydes is hittable, but he has a rock solid chin and Hunt will play it safe because he will be scared of the takedown.
    The over 1.5 rounds at -140 had insane value imo.
     
  11. t6p Brown Belt

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    I agree with all of that. I do think Hunt is much more likely to get a stoppage though. I’m also on Hunt dec +700.
     
  12. pytycrys Purple Belt

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    Quick tip for europeans. To play NSC, as we don't have that type of prop, you could do the following, as in the example. - Hirota NSC
    1u on Hirota-Pearson to go to distance to get 1.45u
    0.45u on Hirota ITD to get 2.7u

    This way, if Hirota gets it itd, you win 1.25u profit, if it goes to distance, you get the money back -> the NSC prop.
    Hirota NSC gets the odds of 1.86, which I love..
     
  13. NewcastleTom Purple Belt

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    I get why you hate the early stoppages lol
     
  14. pytycrys Purple Belt

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    0.3u Wilkinson itd +900. Wow, that's crazy. I get it, Adesanya is a great kickboxer. But what happens if Wilkinson gets the TD? Moreover, Adesanya weighed in at 183, did not look like he cut any weight at all...

    I think we might have to much hype in here!
     
  15. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    he needs to go 170. mentioned in a vid he had to work to get this big. quit the weights
     
  16. null Gold Belt

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    I put some on it at +890 as well to complement or hedge my under 1½ and small Adesanya round 1 prop.
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    2 ufc's in a row with no FOTN props, weird.

    saving us all $, probably!
     
  18. JkMMA Brown Belt

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    Formiga by tko? I doubt it lol. Ben Nguyen has more tools to win this fight. Formiga about to get ktfo if he stands with Nguyen.
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Did you read why? I'm not betting it because I think he's gonna light him up standing LOL. I'm betting it because if he can get Ben down, there's a solid chance he takes Ben's back. If he does that, Ben has shown he'll roll and give up mount and get TKO'd instead of giving up his neck and getting subbed.

    It's +1350. I'm not banking on it hitting obviously. I just see a path to where it could happen, and it has steep odds.
     
  20. clemente Blue Belt

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    So nobody is gonna go with Peason?
     
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