UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

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The Russian drunk is too wild. Pedro will break his weak legs. I'm expecting a brutal flying knee/ head kick KO.
 
Luke only got KOed in the UFC by Bisping and his perfect punch combo and TRT-Vitor's spinning heel kick. So I wouldn't go writing his chin off as cracked yet at his age just based on those knockout losses. And Yoel is known as a round 3 finisher, not round 1. One could easily hedge a bit with Yoel in round 1 at what will surely be decent odds if one is worried about Yoel catching Luke early.
He may not have been flatlined many times, but the fact that his chin is always there to be hit is the bigger problem. Branch could've taken him out if he did not decide to clinch and try to take Luke down when he hurt him
 
As long as he don't try any of those stupid trip throws he did against Coulter I think he will smash Asker on the feet, Tuivasa got deceptive speed and athleticism and should have a decent size advantage. And I just rewatched Askers last fight, his ground game is not that good, going against a 3-0 chinaman with 0 wrestling everyone will look good. Also his punches are weak as fuck for a heavyweight
he does them stupid throws that put himself on bottom a lot if I remember correctly
 
Safarov's gas tank is comically bad. Even more comical is the Russian ref standing him and Wallace up when Wallace had his back!
 
I ma not sure that knocking out washed Silva and Belfort can be considered as a legit KO power, because Weidman hasnt KOd almost anyone else...
Even Belfort was a mounted TKO, not a standing KO.
 
I'm honestly chocked at how many people ITT that are doing HUGE plays on Li. Matthews is not an easy fight.
 
I'm honestly chocked at how many people ITT that are doing HUGE plays on Li. Matthews is not an easy fight.

Well I'm certainly not going huge on Li haven't decided how big yet. But Matthews has looked shite three fights in a row. I get the lnp threat but Matthews gasses and I honestly think hes mentally weak. Looked really dejected on his stool between r1 and r2 against fuckin Holbrook and hes never faced a big puncher like Li before.
 
Count me in as another one staying away from Li. I'm hoping Matthews gets up to around +200. I think he can grind/stall out Li, but I also think he could snag his neck if Li gives up his back. This being in Australia also gives a decent likelihood for less likely standups/breakups since the crowd will be cheering Matthews.
 
Li has good grappling. I’m not too concerned about Matthews taking him down or wall and stalling him.
 
Li has good grappling. I’m not too concerned about Matthews taking him down or wall and stalling him.

Kinda my first thought too. Li has solid counter wrestling. And Mathews is pretty aggressive if he does hit TD's so lay n pray not a huge concern. Mathews himself gives his opponents tons of chances to scramble back to their feet or reverse him like Holbrook did multiple times. I don't see him holding Li down for long stretches.

Li -200 probably still some value imo. But guys saying he should be -400 are crazy. Even at -300 I'd steer way clear in this spot.
 
safarov opponents since 2012
Pocevicius, 7-27 last 33. current skid 1-10 safforovs win came in this bit
Giga Kukhalashvili, ok this dude is fighting m1 and gone on to have a 11-3 record. was only 4-1 when the drunk fought him. reversed safrov before quick tapping. this ones on fightpass
Rodney Wallace 1-6 last 7 jobber
Gian Villante villantee had his way with him. chewed up his leg. safarov finished off his own leg kicking villante arm. yeah he had success in this fight but villante ain't hard to hit.

this guy was brought in v short notice for villante. he wouldn't be here otherwise. we all know the drill. you get a second fight before you are cut. usually against an opponent they want to look good. he fights as bad as his record.

take the 1.42 at dimes. that line is only there as i don't have access to it. i see this line closing 1.28. happily bet it down to 1.25
 
pedro recovered real quick from a nice shot by roundtree. bit of extra confidence when you are backing a fav against someone who just swings wild head down without looking. pedro looks to have good get ups. pedro is better everywhere so doesn't really matter where the fight goes
 
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pedro recovered real quick from a nice shot by roundtree. bit of extra confidence when you are backing a fav against someone who just swings wild head down without looking. looks to have good get ups. although pedro is better everywhere

Good get ups when the ref stands him up when Wallace has his back with hooks in lol
 
Kinda my first thought too. Li has solid counter wrestling. And Mathews is pretty aggressive if he does hit TD's so lay n pray not a huge concern. Mathews himself gives his opponents tons of chances to scramble back to their feet or reverse him like Holbrook did multiple times. I don't see him holding Li down for long stretches.

Li -200 probably still some value imo. But guys saying he should be -400 are crazy. Even at -300 I'd steer way clear in this spot.

Outside the Arreola and Dashon fight (i didn't rewatch Dashon) Matthews hasn't held anyone down for more than like 60 seconds.
 
Good get ups when the ref stands him up when Wallace has his back with hooks in lol
i ment pedro had good get ups. last chance to fade this guy sham. you were all over villante when you saw tape on this guy
 
i ment pedro had good get ups. last chance to fade this guy sham. you were all over villante when you saw tape on this guy

Yep you always have to take last chance saloon on fading these guys. Bojan (lhw Bojan) will forever spring to mind.
 
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