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UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by greenmouse, Mar 6, 2018.

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  1. greenmouse Yellow Belt

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  2. greenmouse Yellow Belt

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    About time to post a thread I thought since it's the event after the next one. Arguably this years most anticipated fight in Ferguson - Nurmagomedov.
    I think Felder @ +120 vs. Iaquinta is interesting. Felder with three wins in 2017 (all finishes with elbows, damn). Iaquinta with a win over Sanchez almost a year ago and before that had a two year lay off. Hard to know where Iaquinta stands as the fight ended with a quick KO. Before that Iaquinta won a controversial split decision over Masvidal in 2015; almost all the media scored it for Masvidal.
     
  3. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Last time this fight was announced everyone loved Ferg at the odds we're getting. Have people changed their minds? I'm tempted at +210 but think it'll get better when highlights of Khabib/Barb are shown everywhere...
     
  4. greenmouse Yellow Belt

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    What is Ferguson's path to victory? Just can't see another outcome than Khabib taking him down and having his way with him. Can't see Ferguson preventing the take down.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Pace, durability, making Khabib work really hard for everything. Then take over late.

    Easier said than done. Khabib most likely gets TD's early. Tony needs to walk a fine line between aggression off his back with elbows and possibly threatening with subs while avoiding giving away positional advances. Khabib isn't a guy who sits inside people's guard too long. He's looking to pass so that he can do more damage. Tony sometimes takes stupid chances positionally (he did it vs Lee and got mounted), he can't do that here.

    But Tony also has something the other guys Khabib has fought don't have. Insane durability coupled with an endless gas tank. Khabib pushes a hard pace, but we've never seen him past round 3. If Tony is able to do any amount of damage standing and then really make Khabib work, we could see Khabib slow down and possibly wilt late in the fight.

    So far, I have just .75u on Tony at +215 because I think odds are way off there. I can see Khabib being favored, but not by this much. But my really big action is on NOT Khabib dec at -175. I really don't see this thing going to the cards. I think either Khabib is able to pass Tony's guard and get him in a bad spot and do a lot of damage early, or I think Tony wears Khabib down and takes over late. Neither guy has the style that should lead to Khabib laying in Tony's guard for 25 minutes. As I said, Khabib looks to pass and do damage, Tony is aggressive (sometimes to a fault) off his back. FDNGD is -165, but it's dumb to bet that imo when for almost no extra juice you can bet NOT Khabib by dec. I have 3.25u total on it if you count what I have in parlays (2.5u straight, .75u spread between 3 parlays). It's absolutely the best bet on this fight imo.
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I like Felder at + odds a little. Pretty long layoff for Raging Al. Knocking out Diego isn't anything special anymore, his chin was done before their fight last year.

    Felder is EXACTLY the kind of guy you want to bet as a dog. ESPECIALLY now that he's figured out that he needs to show some urgency. The guy doesn't give up, he FIGHTS for your $. He was in a bad spot vs Olives, a lot of guys get tapped there. But toughness matters, and Felder has it in spades.

    He also has a rock solid chin, and really underrated technical striking. He took a lot of hard body kicks vs Barboza, but he also landed a lot in that fight. It was very competitive, though Barboza rightfully got the decision win. But Barboza has clowned a lot of good strikers standing, and Felder hung right with him.

    I have 1.5u on Felder. If he climbs, might add more but at current odds I'm happy with this amount.
     
  7. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    On ufc 209 I was very confident in Tony but right now Im switching to Khabib. He is a monster and I cant forget how Kevin Lee mounted Tony.. if he could than Khabib will that too
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    A fair point for sure. Tony makes mistakes off his back when he's too aggressive.

    But...despite Lee landing solid gnp Tony jumped right up at the bell and was clearly the fresher of the two guys. His durability and cardio are insane, and have to be taken into account.
     
  9. jojoRed Aint no stress on me, Lord.

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    Odds are gonna get even better for Ferguson as the fight draws near....I may make my first bet of the year here.
     
  10. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    There’s a huge difference in fighting as 1.5 favourite or as 3.0 underdog. Ferguson last fought as underdog against RDA and it was a very different approach than against Vannata, Barboza or Lee. It could work well for him as motivator to fight smart, not just to impress.
     
  11. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Lines out, took Borg -230 and Kattar -140
     
  12. quincy k Brown Belt

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    odds could get really good on ferguson in the first two and a half minutes after being taken down.

    and those odds would be really good on ferguson if he survived the first round suffereing minimal damage
     
  13. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I think you could wait 2 rounds before betting LBing Ferguson, honestly. That's what I plan on doing, anyway.
     
  14. piglord Black Belt

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    there i was hoping gruetzmacher would be +300.
     
  15. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    Lauzon should win this, he will be bigger and have the grappling advantage
     
  16. quincy k Brown Belt

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    theres a good chance hell already be +400 , maybe 500, after the first round. thats my entry point
     
  17. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    I don't think I can trust Lauzon as a favorite as this point...I think he's pretty much done. He could easily have been 1-4 in his last five (Held was robbed). His last really decisive win was over the corpse of Diego Sanchez.
     
  18. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Agree, I'm taking some Gruetzemacher +140. He looked good standing against Davi Ramos and Lauzon looked so fucking shot in his last fight against Guida
     
  19. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Tony escaped the mount and recovered to guard before the bell rang too. Just rewatched that ending, Lee did not land many clean shots at all, Tony took most of them on his forearms
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I need to rewatch. That's not exactly how I remember it, but if you watched it recently I'm sure you're right. My memory sucks sometimes. Getting old is a bitch. Beats the alternative though ha ha.
     
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