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UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by greenmouse, Mar 6, 2018.

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  1. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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  2. Tony J Blue Belt

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    I was really surprised when Taisumov was announced for this card. He'll never fight in the US, and unless the UFC creates regional titles he'll never get a title shot.
     
  3. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    Having posted in awhile and have been betting right before fights, probably up around $50.

    Put $200 on Ferg at +205. Originally was thinking Khabib but I don’t think Khabib is going to finish him within three rounds. I see the pace of the fight being crazy and a round 4 or 5 sub for ferg as Khabib gassed and gets caught with a couple shots leading to a sub.

    Khabib going 5 rounds strong concerns me and Tony just never seems tired in the last few fights I saw him in.
     
  4. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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  5. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    I can see this comparison too and after some consideration lean towards it. I think it’s possible, that JJ will never be the same fighter again.

    I listened Heavy Hands post UFC 217 conversation (episode 184 starting around 40 min). They thought JJ fought too aggressive and in rematch should try to potshot more from range until she can figure out Roses timing. It’s possible, that JJ took Rose lightly as such a heavy favourite and thought that she’ll crumble easily, but was surprised at her speed and fast boxing developement. If that’s the case and she truely blames it all on weight cut, then it’s guestionable if she can make right adjustments. Even if she would come to rematch with more strategic approach, she would still be trying to catch up with extremely talented fighter who’s developement could still be very fast.
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Not just the last few fights. We have never seen Tony slow down, even a little. If anything he increases output as fights go on. Even at the extreme altitude of Mexico City, he poured it on in rds 4 and 5 vs RDA.

    I think Tony sort of feels his opponents wilting too which spurs him to turn things up as fights progress. He is absolutely an attrition fighter, albeit a very skilled one. But to him cardio and durability are assets to exploit. He forces guys to crumble with the constant pressure he applies.

    And that is honestly one of the things that makes this fight so interesting. If Khabib is getting the better of it early with grappling and gnp, can he sustain it? Will his constant top heavy pressure actually wear Tony down when we have never seen Tony even start to fade? Will Tony be too aggressive early and give up dominant positions?

    Such a great fight with so many questions.
     
  7. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    loading up on rose @2.38, too many ppl buying her odds, this will go lower. could be real close to evens, or she could even go favorite at some point closer to the fight imo. easy bet to take now for a probable freeroll opportunity. very limited risk of her price drifting past 2.5. good risk reward opportunity.

    edit: similar bets on machida, anderson, and felder for the same reason.
     
  8. Karmello Purple Belt

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    Machida is already down to 1.42, not going to bet him at these odds and I don't think it will get much better. Wished I could have gotten him at 1.88 though.
     
  9. Connor Prince GOAT

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    UFC 223 Predictions:

    Ferguson Round 4 Sub
    JJ Round 5 Dec
    Kattar Round 3 Dec
    Pettis Round 2 Knockout
    Felder Round 1 knockout

    Tis the the choices and what i am going to bet on
     
  10. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Made an account here just to reply to this. I've been capping fights for awhile now, anyone who puts any weight on Ferguson is an absolute moron.

    Khabib will retire as one of the greatest fighters of all-time, perhaps even undefeated. He will only lose to someone with solid takedown defense and striking. He completely nullified Barboza, Ferguson will have nothing to offer on the feet. He's a sambo world champ, dude is not getting caught in some 10th planet BS sub. Tony Ferguson has glaring weaknesses. He's going to get mauled for 25 minutes. Do not touch him, bet Khabib.
     
  11. northsofia Blue Belt

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    We are very glad that you made an account just for warning us not to bet Ferguson, you saved us a lot of money!
     
  12. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Thanks!

    I'm glad that after seeing Khabib slow down in rd 3 in a few of his fights that you figured out he is for sure gonna have the energy to go hard for 5 full rounds against a cardio machine like Ferg.

    Buying out of my Ferg action and switching sides based on new user's superb analysis.
     
  13. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    i took him at 1.57, I think it's still available at betonline, but the sites down for maintenance atm to check. 1.88 was a gift, where did it open that high?
     
  14. Larthus Orange Belt

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    If the best defense you have for Tony winning is his cardio, don't waste your money.

    Tony Ferguson was temporarily controlled on the ground by Kevin Lee who isn't even a fraction as deadly or active as Khabib is

    RDA has better TDD than Tony, he got ragdolled. Barboza has better striking, he was nullified.

    Where's the path to victory?
     
  15. Karmello Purple Belt

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    Sportbet opened at 1.88 and at 5Dimes also around there. But at the bookies I use it opened really low or they don't even have odds up. For now I pass on this fight and I will see what happens when we get closer.

    1.57 is still nice though.
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yes toughness and cardio mean nothing to an attrition fighter that's won 10 fights in a row by breaking people with pace, cardio, and toughness in addition to his other skills.

    Ferguson was controlled by Lee for a bit in round 1, yes. He regained guard just before the bell, and got up not even breathing hard and looking like he'd taken absolutely zero damage.

    Tony did way more damage to RDA than Khabib did. Khabib was slowing down in round 3 too of that fight, but you want to pretend that didn't happen? Tony also finished Barboza.

    The point is, you come in here and none of us have any clue who you are and you think we're supposed to take you seriously because...?

    Nobody is saying that Khabib doesn't have a good chance to win and a clear path to victory. Or even that he shouldn't be favored. But he's well over a 2-1 favorite right now, and those of us here with proven track records of long term gambling success are just gonna laugh at someone like you coming in here acting like you know everything. It doesn't even matter if you're right. You're picking a -240 favorite to win. Acting like you are some kind of betting whiz isn't gonna play well when you are brand new and offered no real insight for the most part.
     
  17. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Just throwing 2 cents in here but I think maybe you've gotten off on the wrong foot here friend. Using your first post to call people morons is not only rude it's downright disrespectful. This forum is based on sharing information, analysis, and above all respect. Coming out guns blazing is a sure fire way to be met with sarcasm. But Hey, do what you like.
     
  18. zeckdo Blue Belt

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    Tony Ferguson round 4 +2050, Round 5 +2800..... seems like a must bet from all sides, to hedge khabib bets, and if you're betting tony you most likely see him winning in the championship rounds.
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah no question. Those are must bets. Just waiting to see what we get on 5d.
     
  20. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    223 props are out on 5D
     
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