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UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by greenmouse, Mar 6, 2018.

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  1. 5cent Refund Orange Belt

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    @lawmills2006 - Im hearing you - was so pumped to wake up , head to the pub and watch this card on a drunken sunday morning - now I will probably check how my golf bets are going!
     
  2. EndlessCritic Steel Belt

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    Pretty much zero chance he goes to jail over this.

    However, he will have his suit sued off of him.
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Not sure if this is your area of expertise within the legal field, but you're still gonna know more than the rest of us.

    Is it likely he's able to settle with everyone who's liable to try to get a piece of him because of this. You have essentially everyone on the bus, the security guys, the venue, the UFC (if they'd actually pursue legal action against their cash cow). If he just throws, IDK, $10m-$15 to his legal team and says "Spread this around and settle all of this out of court" is there a good chance it works and all the civil stuff goes away?

    And what about visa issues, etc.? Does his status as an international superstar sort of ensure he can still come and go as he pleases, but during this and after?

    As for the criminal aspect, I'm assuming he's gonna get a hefty dose of mandatory community service as part of his plea? Probably some anger management classes too?
     
  4. EndlessCritic Steel Belt

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    I have zero idea how the visa thing will work.

    As a practical matter, yes, he will basically tell his lawyers to make the lawsuits go away. Although, given the number of plaintiffs involved here, Conor may have bitten off a little bit more than he wants to chew. He might even have to fight in the UFC again to pay some of these people off...

    Yes, community service/fine. He's too rich to go to jail.
     
  5. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Can we talk about JJ and Thug Rose for a second? Rose has dealt with an abusive relationship in the past. Her father was a schizophrenic and had to leave her family. Pat Barry has commented that she's a very emotional person.

    As you all know, she was almost hit while in the bus yesterday, which led her to be "super upset" and "shaken up" because of the incident

    During the weigh-ins, Joe asked her how does it feel to be in the position of being the champion- to which she replied "I'm super blessed and grateful to be here, despite everything that has gone on this week. I'm just grateful for another chance to face my fears and to prove to myself that I'm the best in the world". Normally I wouldn't read too much into it, but I think it's interesting that she primarily addressed the bus incident when she wasn't directly asked about it


    I hate when people try to play psychologist in these threads, but I think this is a unique situation where it's at least worth discussing. Does anyone think this emotional distress plays a big enough factor in a fight that's essentially a pick em at current odds?
     
  6. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Last time she fought Johanna in ny, there were rumors that Antifa was planning some kind of big attack. She stayed in her room and trained instead of going out and running.

    She was definitely on edge with the protestors near her hotel

    I’d think that this incident shook her up more, but I’m not sure if it will factor into her performance
     
  7. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Amateur psychology incoming. Rose has deep paranoia and anxiety. She has expressed a lot in the past about "just wanting to be comfortable" and about "having to look over her shoulder constantly" as a child and also "feeling bad energy" about an area they're frequenting. As someone pointed out earlier, at UFC 217 she had a bit of a run in with the Antifa protests as well as a few other adversities but none to the level of the Donor incident. One key factor about that incident? She wasn't with her team. They're the ones that can get inside her head and calm her down. Because she was by herself, a bit of that old paranoia set in and she was morbidly freaked out. I mean who wouldn't be? She'll be thinking about it for a few weeks from now.

    Now, I guarantee Pat and Wittman are working with Rose, meditating on crystals, breathing exercises, chanting her mantra, the works. Her team back home are probably getting in contact with her too. Gaethje included. She needs to be reassured. Refocused.

    She'll still be the most dangerous early and might wilt if she gets outlasted in the later rounds. Her having a bit of a freak out doesn't make Joanna less chinny either.

    She'll have a bit of media to attend to tomorrow. I think we ought to look at that as it comes out. Fwiw I'm on Rose too and I have a bad feeling about it.
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    IDK about how it affects Rose honestly. (More armchair psychology incoming...).

    Could it have a negative affect on her? Absolutely. But the reverse is true as well. If her anxiety really does stem from previous abusive relationships and her father's mental health issues, there's a good chance the thing she most fears is helplessness. People stuck in abusive relationships tend to feel powerless and trapped. I'd imagine the situation with her father left her feeling helpless as well when there was nothing she could do for him. The situation with Antifa, the craziness with Conor's gang, same thing. She was powerless to do anything about her situation.

    But stepping into the cage, she controls her own destiny. She's not powerless, it's one other woman in front of her that she is battling on even terms. She has a level of control. It's a place she's familiar with and comfortable in.

    So basically, imo we're sort of right back at square one. Her routine was thrown off before their first fight, and she gave the performance of her life. This time...who knows? Maybe this was worse and she's rattled so badly that she'll look awful. Maybe she'll be so relieved to be in the cage that she'll look calm and composed and lay waste to JJ again. Maybe none of this matters that much at all and we're speculating for no reason. I think it's really just guessing in trying to get a good read on any of this.
     
  9. null Gold Belt

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    Khabib/Iaquinta Under 2½ +115 at Sportsbook.com. Much better than 5D or BM at -160 or so now.
     
  10. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    yeah i agree with your points Rose seems a bit weak mentally. I think small things can throw her off. She talked about it some on JRE.

    JJ at evens is great
     
  11. Caicara Purple Belt

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    I'm glad to see you back!
     
  12. K1fan Green Belt

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    Hate mcCokehead scared the shit out of Rose.Injured Borg.Two fights i was confident in betting.
     
  13. turbozed Red Belt

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    I'm no expert on psychology but I have read a few good books on childhood trauma and stuff like that. Much of what I've read argues exactly what you're saying. Triggers for dormant anxiety are more traumatic when the person feels like they don't have control over the situation. In response, they either become super violent and lash out, or they shell up and disassociate. It's really sad to read about theses cases of childhood trauma because the anxiety and reactivity to triggers never really goes away. No matter how good a person's life is and whatever therapy they receive later on in life, trauma is never resolved, only mitigated.

    As for Rose, I would expect fighting to be a familiar situation where she feels she has control. Still, controlling emotions requires willpower, and there's a certain amount of mental fatigue that occurs dealing with stressful situations. For example, psychologists do studies where they put the subject through a stressful situation, and then test things like their cognitive performance or health choices (e.g. picking fruit over dessert pastries). The more stress a person goes through, their performance decreases and ability to make good long term choices decreases. Rose has performed well in the past even with the stress of cutting, media obligations, and fight week. Adding more stress on top of that just saps the mental reserves just a bit more.

    In the fight, I wouldn't expect it to be a problem in earlier rounds, but maybe if the fight is a war and goes to the later rounds, it may have an effect on performance. We've seen in the past where Rose looked great early in a fight and then shut down later.
     
  14. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Good discussions and input
     
  15. Sapp Silver Belt

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    Value on Raging Al. Has a much clearer path than Holloway.
     
  16. bruthead Blue Belt

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    They are offering refunds now. Came over from the UK so weighed up and still gonna go, but only because I don't have particularly expensive seats.
     
  17. Levels Banned Banned

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    Rose is shook 100%

    Contemplated pulling out of the fight and was crying at the weigh in. Conor McGregor got in her head, now she's mentally compromised.

    JJ is getting her belt back, not going to be a close fight, this fight will be how the 1st fight was meant to be, she was -600 for a reason, SW Queen, Female GOAT
     
  18. Levels Banned Banned

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    Do you guys really think Felice is natural?

    I'm almost convinced she's taking something

    Females don't look like that unless they are on PED's

    You guys think Dana Linn Bailey is natty too?
     
  19. Kowboy Karl Black Belt

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    You can turn to backpage

    Wait nevermind
     
  20. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Is it just me or is Al/Khabib starts round 3 at around even odds huge value?
     
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