UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

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Guys on BestFightPicks tend to circlejerk about everything related to them. I know it’s self promotion but it has become very off putting to me, which is a shame because they are good cappers but I can’t listen to them saying how they are the best in the game every week.
Almost reminds me of a lovable scamp who used to post here. Think he called himself... King ...
 
Porbably gonna parlay Kowalkiewicz in double
Maybe Kowalkiewicz by decision
Odds which are on, well will have to analise
Waiting for odds at Dunham, Rawlings and Caceres vs Lobov
 
joe lauzon looks like he's fallen off a cliff in the last few years. the guy has an obscene amount of mileage for 33. he gassed horribly against ray and got flatlined by guida.

gruetz for all his faults has a good chin and can push a pace. if he doesn't get subbed in r1 i think he while blocking punches with his face ryan janes style. also training at att this camp can't hurt.
 
2 things...

I think JJ beats Rose this time and will not even be that close.

I think Ferguson will slow down and his cardio will not be a big factor. People will say there is something off...I will say he had a crazy russian throwing him around. Not counting him off tho.
 
Im the only one here again with Felice ? <Fedor23>

Nope, I'm on Herrig. I think she can make it a dirty, grind it out type fight and will have a chance.

So far just 1u on her ML and 1.5u on her NSC.

If this fight was a pick 'em I'd pass, but I think Felice has value at +160.
 
2 things...

I think JJ beats Rose this time and will not even be that close.

I think Ferguson will slow down and his cardio will not be a big factor. People will say there is something off...I will say he had a crazy russian throwing him around. Not counting him off tho.

Interesting. You are counting on the guy with arguably the best cardio we've ever seen in MMA to slow down? Hmm...

There's plenty of reasons to pick against Tony here, but cardio would not be on that list to me.

That said, if it's just your gut feeling, so be it. Carrying Khabib's weight is a new kind of draining experience, no doubt. It's just that we've seen Khabib slow down a bit, even in fights he's controlling. We've never seen Tony slow down at all.
 
joe lauzon looks like he's fallen off a cliff in the last few years. the guy has an obscene amount of mileage for 33. he gassed horribly against ray and got flatlined by guida.

gruetz for all his faults has a good chin and can push a pace. if he doesn't get subbed in r1 i think he while blocking punches with his face ryan janes style. also training at att this camp can't hurt.

Yeah, I'm really pissed this o/u got set at 1.5. That surprised me. I thought maybe we'd get 2.5 but have to pay a little juice. Instead, it's 1.5 but at +140 for the under. I still might play it. I think very good chance this doesn't see round 2 one way or the other. Joe either snags a sub or his chin is totally gone and he gets pounded out. Haven't pulled the trigger yet though.
 
2 things...

I think JJ beats Rose this time and will not even be that close.

I think Ferguson will slow down and his cardio will not be a big factor. People will say there is something off...I will say he had a crazy russian throwing him around. Not counting him off tho.

i think that there is a good chance the first round of jj/rose wont be close and a live bet hedge on rose freerolling jj after the first five minutes will be available

jj still has that great striking and output even though her punch resistance is questionable
 
Nope, I'm on Herrig. I think she can make it a dirty, grind it out type fight and will have a chance.

So far just 1u on her ML and 1.5u on her NSC.

If this fight was a pick 'em I'd pass, but I think Felice has value at +160.

In my opinion, it's Karolina who wants to make this fight dirty, not Herrig. Technique wise, KK's striking leaves a lot to be desired, she has no jab to speak of, she closes the distance by rushing forward while throwing and often eats counters in the process. But, she makes up for her deficiencies with her constant forward pressure, volume and solid chin. Meanwhile, Herrig's boxing has come along nicely and I think she would get the better of KK in a technical striking match.

Karolina is also very strong in the clinch. If you look at the Rose fight, she was getting outstruck fairly comfortably from distance. She didn't start having success until she was able to initiate the clinch and land those nasty knees to the body. The last time we saw Herrig spend any significant time in the clinch, PVZ was getting the better of her, so I have to assume KK has a massive advantage there.

Herrig would also obviously like to get the fight to the ground and I'm sure she'll mix in some takedown attempts. I see this ending in a competitive decision either way, so it's dog or pass for me. I do think KK decision is more likely, primarily because I think Herrig is going to get out volumed and she won't be able to stay out of the clinch. But I do like that NSC play since Felice sub is the only legit shot I see for this ending inside the distance.
 
In my opinion, it's Karolina who wants to make this fight dirty, not Herrig. Technique wise, KK's striking leaves a lot to be desired, she has no jab to speak of, she closes the distance by rushing forward while throwing and often eats counters in the process. But, she makes up for her deficiencies with her constant forward pressure, volume and solid chin. Meanwhile, Herrig's boxing has come along nicely and I think she would get the better of KK in a technical striking match.

Karolina is also very strong in the clinch. If you look at the Rose fight, she was getting outstruck fairly comfortably from distance. She didn't start having success until she was able to initiate the clinch and land those nasty knees to the body. The last time we saw Herrig spend any significant time in the clinch, PVZ was getting the better of her, so I have to assume KK has a massive advantage there.

Herrig would also obviously like to get the fight to the ground and I'm sure she'll mix in some takedown attempts. I see this ending in a competitive decision either way, so it's dog or pass for me. I do think KK decision is more likely, primarily because I think Herrig is going to get out volumed and she won't be able to stay out of the clinch. But I do like that NSC play since Felice sub is the only legit shot I see for this ending inside the distance.

When I say "dirty", I guess I mean a lot of level changes and forcing scrambles. I agree Felice can probably have some success at distance, but KK isn't gonna sit outside and be comfortable with a sparring match imo. I think KK is fine in the clinch, but so is Herrig. She looked WAY better there vs Grasso and Kish (I think there were pretty long stretches in the clinch vs Kish iirc) than she did vs PVZ. I think with Herrig being able to keep KK guessing with level changes, she can look busier and have success when the fight is pressed up against the cage.

I maybe agree that the most likely outcome (by a very narrow margin) is KK dec. But it's so razor close, odds dictate a play on Lil Bulldog here.

The play here imo is Herrig NSC. I have 1.5u at +190 and honestly just added another 2u at +175.I should have just put down 4u at +190 right away. Oh well, still amazing odds imo. Felice has never been finished, and if she can get the fight to the mat she has a chance to find a sub. This line should honestly be reversed imo.
 
When I say "dirty", I guess I mean a lot of level changes and forcing scrambles. I agree Felice can probably have some success at distance, but KK isn't gonna sit outside and be comfortable with a sparring match imo. I think KK is fine in the clinch, but so is Herrig. She looked WAY better there vs Grasso and Kish (I think there were pretty long stretches in the clinch vs Kish iirc) than she did vs PVZ. I think with Herrig being able to keep KK guessing with level changes, she can look busier and have success when the fight is pressed up against the cage.

I maybe agree that the most likely outcome (by a very narrow margin) is KK dec. But it's so razor close, odds dictate a play on Lil Bulldog here.

There were some brief clinch exchanges in the Kish and Grasso fights, but not enough to take much away from imo. Regardless, Karolina is a completely different animal there than either of them and I think it's a spot Herrig would like to avoid here.

Either way, it seems like we agree on the best play(s) on the fight.
 
Claudia took down kk and tapped her like it was nothing. Felice can wrestle and she has submissions

+180 was a great spot on Felicia

Kk is over valued by books.

Herrig sub +875

I might do a full unit on that
 
Claudia took down kk and tapped her like it was nothing. Felice can wrestle and she has submissions

+180 was a great spot on Felicia

Kk is over valued by books.

Herrig sub +875

I might do a full unit on that
I think we can agree the first time on something :) I doubt Felice subs her but the line is very nice.
 
Claudia took down kk and tapped her like it was nothing. Felice can wrestle and she has submissions

+180 was a great spot on Felicia

Kk is over valued by books.

Herrig sub +875

I might do a full unit on that

Yeah Gadhela obviously has way better TD's than Felice, but I think Felice is for sure crafty enough on the mat to find a sub if given the opportunity. I expect her to try to cause some scrambles to look for opportunities.
 
Yeah Gadhela obviously has way better TD's than Felice, but I think Felice is for sure crafty enough on the mat to find a sub if given the opportunity. I expect her to try to cause some scrambles to look for opportunities.

And I think she’s smart enough to understand that’s where she’s going to win the fight and she’s going to look for takedowns
 
You're overrating Fellice's grappling or underrating KK's grappling, maybe both.I don't see any area where Felice is better.
 
You're overrating Fellice's grappling or underrating KK's grappling, maybe both.I don't see any area where Felice is better.

KK looked absolutely lost vs Claudia. I don't think Herrig is quite the grappler that Gahdela is, but she wouldn't look completely lost like KK did in that fight.
 
KK looked absolutely lost vs Claudia. I don't think Herrig is quite the grappler that Gahdela is, but she wouldn't look completely lost like KK did in that fight.
I wouldn't be so sure about that
 
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