UFC 225 PBP/Discussion

[2bet]

I was totally off this time, so many stupid bets.

In hindsight there were a few bets that made so much fucking sense.

And if de la Rocha gets another fight in the UFC I will bet my house against him

 

[Gugabe]

I was totally off this time, so many stupid bets.

In hindsight there were a few bets that made so much fucking sense.

And if de la Rocha gets another fight in the UFC I will bet my house against him

How can you fade a Big Ol' Mexican with a Big Ol' Head?

 

[NinjaCat456]

In the end though, does it really help/hurt us at all? You have this case where someone got inside info and loaded up on Carla because of it (those who bet her ML still lost, but those who took her +3.5 cashed--I'm guessing more was lost on the ML even just on 5d than was won on the props but no way to know for sure) but of course none of us got the info until after. But then you had a giant swing like this on McDonald right before the Lineker fight. Maybe not this extreme but close. And it turns out it was just someone loading up on McDonald for no reason and he got starched early. Nothing was wrong with Lineker, it was just a case of how much lines can be moved in MMA with the relative limited amount of action.

So the next time we see a giant line swing like this, won't we all just wonder if it's because of something related to one of the fighters, or if it's simply huge late action for no real reason on one of them? And in this case, despite not having all the relevant info, I was actually helped by it. I was mostly on Claudia -3.5 before the big line swings, but added a bunch to her ML when the big shift happened. Turns out I profited on the fight when I'd have lost without the huge line swing.

I'm not saying we should ignore it. I just don't know how we accurately put this to use? I'm definitely open to ideas though, if anyone has better insight than I do.

You're right late line shifts like that aren't usually any indication of how the fight is going to pan out.

But any situation where we can simultaneously get one fighter at +400 and the opponent at near -200 helps tremendously if you like money. Certainly helped me Saturday night.

 

[mkess101]

You're right late line shifts like that aren't usually any indication of how the fight is going to pan out.

But any situation where we can simultaneously get one fighter at +400 and the opponent at near -200 helps tremendously if you like money. Certainly helped me Saturday night.

Using multiple books? Yeah if you do then you are 100% right.

 

[ill800]

Well that explains the stanky leg she did in the first.

That was probably the best punch Esparza has ever thrown

Straight right hand flush on the chin that Claudia didn’t see

Knee injury or not, Claudia looked bad

For as juiced as her lines get she might getting into fade territory for me against anyone with a competent ground game/tdd

 

[Tony J]

That was probably the best punch Esparza has ever thrown

Straight right hand flush on the chin that Claudia didn’t see

Knee injury or not, Claudia looked bad

For as juiced as her lines get she might getting into fade territory for me against anyone with a competent ground game/tdd

Yup. Theme of the night was emotion, and like her fellow countryman, I think all the emotion Claudia had going into this match made her gas out faster than normal. Definitely good intel on Claudia and RDA.