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UFC 227 PBP/Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by PuertoRican, Aug 4, 2018.

  1. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Fell asleep yesterday, sucks because I was just waiting for better odds to unload on Munhoz.
    Fuck that Moicano KO was close, had 0.33u at +1100. Finally a circlejerk dog cashes also!
    Still got the co-main and main to watch but right now the nights looking good. DJ finish and TJ win would give me a 10u~ profit

    edit. What an upset from Cejudo, it would be criminal if DJ dosen't get the immediate rematch
    Dillashaw is a fucking beast, won a lot of money on him in these 2 past fights
    Ended up +5.2u so nice to be back on the winning side

    The first round in Torres/Perez, Munhoz/Johns and Dillashaw/Cody could all be up for rounds of the year
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2018
  2. wigglestick pess de gward Platinum Member

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    Well that makes sense, he is a family man
     
  3. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Man, I would have had a killer night if DJ got the decision. I round robined the favs that I was very comfortable with (Vera, Santos, Munhoz, MM) and then I had him with a couple small parlays with weird props on the female fights (not Taylor dec + not Viana Rd 1). I can understand the decision, but it outlines why scoring is a bit goofy. If a wrestler is pushing for a takedown most of the round and secures it, it's far more significant to me than Cejudo's reactive takedowns. He's not really advancing or imposing his will at all before the takedown. With that said, I did not feel good going into that decision and really thought Rd 5 was important.

    At this point, I definitely disagree with Dillashaw/Garbrandt being a coinflip. Garbrandt is fast on counters or the initial couple punches, but Dillashaw is better in the pocket without a doubt. His hands remain fast on long exchanges and he's finding angles with head movement. Garbrandt essentially just wings and the punches become more telegraphed. I also think Dillashaw's killer instinct and swarming is much better. If they have that fight 10 times, I'd be very surprised if Dillashaw wouldn't win 7+ times.
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Cody can't seem to fight composed vs TJ either. Where against Dom he was content to zap Dom with counters and not chase the KO, with TJ it's basically been that if any type of distance is closed (by either guy) Cody just wants to wing power shots head hunting the KO.

    He reacts poorly to getting tagged too.

    Agree, 3/10 is probably the chance I give him in this matchup after seeing last night.
     
  5. stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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    Remember when you disagreed with me in the pre event thread about Cody not being a hype train banger who is levels below TJ? ;)
    j/k. Hope you did alright on the event!
     
  6. piglord Black Belt

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    hit a huge parlay and went yolo on cody like an idiot lol.
     
  7. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    It felt more like he was just having too much fun taunting Dom, rather than necessarily showing restraint and self-control. Also the margin of error availabe in striking with Cruz is a lot bigger.
     
  8. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    Luckily I cashed out from my Montel Jackson bet, anyway small plus on this event + maybe ++ :)
     
  9. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Couple of parlays got killed by that split so just broke even. Can't complain if its not loss though.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Ha ha there's a difference between being worse than the best BW in the world and being a "hype train banger". He's still a top 5 guy.

    Yeah I absolutely smashed this card. I didn't bet the ME other than a few peanuts props in RR's.

    I got a gift dec with Cejudo, I had his dec line at +900 plus I bet him live at +350 and +375. So yeah, made over 11u on that fight alone. Plus JJ came through. I haven't added it all up but it will be for sure my best event in 2018. I don't feel like I just "owned" it because I really do think DJ won, but I'll still take it.
     
  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Both good points. Although I do think he just has a bug up his ass about TJ and feeling the need to KO him, and it makes him do stupid stuff.
     
  12. Karmello Purple Belt

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    After a long and good run, the last couple UFC events I really wasn't on my game and the only thing that saved me yesterday was that the Cody - TJ finished early as expected, before that I was really big in the red and to slow with livebetting. Being full of antibiotics and medication doesn't help either and while normally I like a UFC event every weekend, I can use a little break here. So it's perfect for me that the next event is in 3 weeks, so I can recover a bit and come back fresh when my treatment has finished and get the ball rolling again.

    Still ended up with 0,46u profit yesterday because of the main event. Hope most of you had a lot more profit yesterday and see you sherdoggers in a couple of weeks, that is if my degen ass can stay of for that long and especially for @Ham Socks ;) , here are some slips that saved me yesterday:
    Schermafbeelding 2018-08-05 om 15.43.40.png Schermafbeelding 2018-08-05 om 15.43.29.png Schermafbeelding 2018-08-05 om 15.50.42.png Schermafbeelding 2018-08-05 om 15.53.52.png
     

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  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Both good points. Although I do think he just has a bug up his ass about TJ and feeling the need to KO him, and it makes him do stupid stuff.
     
  14. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    Ha kind of the same. I was drunk and put down a pretty hefty bet on Cody that wiped out a fair bit of my profit.

    I don't usually post my plays here because it is a bit tedious but this is what I was on yesterday minus a few parlays that I put together and a 1.45u bet on Alex Perez https://www.betmma.tips/BxOzZy
     
  15. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    I'm just catching up with the fights since I was busy celebrating my kids birthday this weekend. I felt so good about my bets this time around but still ended up -0.1u. Not a big loss or anything but thank god for Aldrich because I lost almost every other bet I made for this card.
     
  16. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    I'm just catching up with the fights since I was busy celebrating my kids birthday this weekend. I felt so good about my bets this time around but still ended up -0.1u. Not a big loss or anything but thank god for Aldrich because I lost almost every other bet I made for this card.
     
  17. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    After two losing events I got +15u this time and doubled my bankroll in GambleMaster!
    upload_2018-8-6_1-50-16.jpeg
     
  18. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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  19. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    Made a fortune off TJ In his last two. Was big on both his ML at -115 and ITD. He should be right up there in the P4P discussion imo. Feel kinda bad for him that DJ lost.
     
  20. mmaHobbyist Blue Belt

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    congrat!! which site let you bet 3g on a prop bet???
     
  21. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Gamblemaster's a fantasy MMA tracker, IIRC. Like how Betmma has guys going 15u deep on opener prices somehoow.
     
  22. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Yeah I really like that site for my own tracking. I'm outside the top 140 when if I did 11u instead of 1u I'd be near the top. I'm sure there are plenty of snake oil salesmen when you look at it like that but I really only use it for myself as that side of things is very fraudulent. I hope people aren't buying those picks...
     
  23. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    Funny coincidence, but Bookmaker actually had 3k limits for that line with same odds. Too bad I only had 150 euros on it irl.
     
  24. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I'm at the top with minimal bullshittery, but it is annoying when there's a churning sea of 11u players that get on top for 2 weeks, make a ton of noise, and then bleed out immediately afterwards.

    The element of accountability means something, but people are also terrible at figuring out signal v noise.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2018
  25. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    You are hardly at "the top" but to be fair you're results are pretty decent but you do play like an amateur. Your record is a complete mess, it looks sloppy and it must be hard to tail. You have like a dozen bets per card and you also bet a lot of props which is another clear sign of someone that is an amateur with a small bankroll. Big boys play ML

    Why not just clean up your record and stop posting your bets in such a messy way, it would look much more respectable.

    99% of "touts" (lol) on betmma are broke frauds that don't know what they're doing. A lot of them also post bullshit odds and bet ridiculous stakes, like you say 11u players.

    Even that Oracle MMA guy, he's got really good looking results but he's inflated his record by betting a lot of 11u plays early on, he built is record of that but now he doesn't do it anymore so his ROI and profit is very misleading.

    I really don't know any MMA touts that would be worth paying for. Even more well known ones like bestfightpicks are really not good at all, they haven't profited anything in over 13 months lol and they are trying to take peoples money.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2018

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