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UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    I think it's hard to gauge where the line should realistically be, but Conor's line will probably start getting smashed by Irish/British bettors soon. Anyone on Conor should be getting their bets in ASAP. I can't imagine his line getting any better
     
  2. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    I agree, this is a tough fight to gauge. I want to put my personal line higher as I think Conor’s TDD is extremely underrated but can’t because if Conor makes a mistake early in a round, he is in serious trouble.

    The big betting factor that’s being overvalued by people anti-Conor is his gas tank. Conor doesn’t have the best but it is very good. Most seem to point to the Diaz fights; however, he had to put on weight for those fights and I don’t think he realized the affect it would have on his cardio. His body is made for 155 and his cardio is much better at that weight compared to fighting at 170. Watch the Alvarez fight and Diaz fights, round 1 only. He looks way different at the end of each round after having thoroughly dominate rounds.
     
  3. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Guys, we are giving Conor WAY too much credit in this thread. He's not nearly as hungry / motivated as he was when was chasing belts, he was LOSING to Mendes the entire second round (Mendes had over 3 minutes of control, until the end) and was taken down repeatedly in the fight.

    I get the AKA guys have each others backs, but the way DC talks about Khabib is legit. The guy is the best grappler Conor has EVER faced and probably ever will face. He has completely nullified anyone he has fought. Conor has less than a 10% chance of winning this fight. He is going to get taken down and mauled repeatedly on the ground. There's levels to this shit. Conor is a good fighter, but Khabib is EXCEPTIONAL.

    *AL IAQUINTA, MICHAEL JOHNSON, AND BARBOZA BOTH HAVE BETTER TDD THAN CONOR AND KHABIB MADE THEM LOOK COMPLETELY SUBHUMAN*

    YOU ARE NOT STOPPING A KHABIB TAKEDOWN UNLESS YOU HAVE A DOMINANT WRESTLING PEDIGREE I.E KEVIN LEE, GREGOR GILLISPIE ETC. STOP SHILLING CONOR'S TDD. IF MENDES CAN TAKE HIM DOWN, KHABIB IS GOING TO AT WILL.

    85% of my gambling account on Khabib's ML

    edit: I fully expect this post to be quoted in every thread I post in if Khabib gets flatlined
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2018
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I favor Khabib and have bet him but holy shit man. 85% of your BR isn't just bad money management. It's lunacy.
     
  5. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Firstly, I'm a huge Khabib fan, I've been calling for him to be the next big thing for a while, I have 2 year old bets with my friends on Khabib beating Conor.

    But I still see a lot of reason to pick Conor here. Conor's grappling was trash against Mendes. But that was 3 years ago. He's extensively worked on that factor since then.

    Is Khabib's grappling better than Conor's? Absolutely yes. I think Khabib can dominate Conor on the ground. But it's a 5 round fight.

    Iaquinta, MJ, and Barboza all tagged Khabib in their fights. It didn't stop him, but that doesn't mean Conor won't be able to. Khabib's shown himself to be pretty hittable on the feet. If Conor can put up any defense to Khabib diving at his legs, he's going to hit him at some point. We don't know for sure how well Khabib can deal with that. The striking disparity may end up being as big as the grappling disparity.
     
  6. Ruthfella Purple Belt

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    Pettis +287
     
  7. Lightbringer Yellow Belt

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    I can't imagine Conor being able to defend Khabib's chain wrestling and his power will go after a round. Khabib moneyline is the play here, if you are betting Conor moneyline, just play his ko line because he does not have the game to win a decision. Khabib's pace vs Al was super impressive, he never got tired and he went for takedown after takedown and Al has WAY better TDD than Conor. I expect Khabib to win a pretty easy 50-45 decision or finish Conor in the later rounds.
     
  8. Larthus Orange Belt

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    My first post was overly shill but I just don’t think there’s any evidence to suggest that Conor’s TDD has evolved enough to stop Khabib. No chance he wins a decision, Conor KO is the only path to victory

    @mkess101 I want to clear a lot of money on this that’s why I’m putting so much - super confident
     
  9. joenewbie Orange Belt

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    I agree with most of what has already been said. Khabib should be the favorite and will most likely win late in the fight or by DEC due to his wrestling and ground control but McGregor has a chance early in round 1 or 2 with his one punch KO power, so that bet is worth a small play due to the odds. I realize that is simplistic but those are the basics as I see them.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Everyone keeps talking about Conor's TDD as if these things play out in a vacuum. But that's not how MMA works. Everything feeds off something else. Keep in mind, I've already stated I favor Khabib and have placed a bet on him at -140 when you read what I'm about to say next:

    Conor may not have the TDD of Raging Al or Barboza from a strictly grappling standpoint. But what he does have is FAR better distance control and timing. That, along with his power (and the THREAT of his power) can aid in his ability to potentially have a better chance to keep the fight standing. I will be surprised if Khabib is unable to secure takedowns while fresh, but I won't be absolutely floored like some people here will be. The combination of masterful footwork, timing, and power is a huge obstacle for a wrestler that wants only to close distance and get their hands on the opponent.

    Khabib obviously presents challenges that Conor has absolutely never faced. I think that's pretty obvious to everyone. But Conor also presents challenges to Khabib stylistically that Khabib has never seen. Conor has a unique ability to manipulate distance and draw his opponents into places where he can hurt them with perfectly timed shots that pack a ton of power.

    Conor also doesn't seem to be getting credit for his toughness. He gassed horribly in the first Diaz fight obviously. But Mendes (who hits like a truck at FW) landed clean multiple times on Conor and Conor wasn't fazed at all. Then Chad hit the TD and landed some gnp and Conor stayed cool and there was no panic at all. Chad was foolish to attempt the sub from there, but throughout what was not a great stretch for Conor, he stayed calm and then turned it around and got the finish. Point being that assuming Khabib does get an early TD or two (and I think he will), Conor will not just instantly wilt under the attack. I think he'll take some damage for sure, and I think it's more likely than not that Khabib does enough damage to take control of the fight. But again, Conor won't roll over and die. For all his ridiculous craziness and showmanship outside the cage, the kid is a FIGHTER.
     
  11. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    If Conor stuffs takedowns he will land enough shots to take out Khabib eventually. Khabib is hittable on the way in, and just look what Conor did to Eddie and Aldo. His timing, power and precision is amazing

    He takes damage well and delivers it like a motherfucker.
     
  12. Karmello Purple Belt

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    Really hope we're not going to be wrong about the line movement and we're going to get a really great price on Khabib. Still a bit worried that the Khabib money is also very strong, but if the Irish and casuals can get Floyd up to -333 / 1,30 or something like that, I think we should be fine here.
     
  13. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Khabib money'll probably wait till weigh-ins/fight's confirmed to actually be happening without a bus attack or weight miss.
     
  14. Karmello Purple Belt

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    I think we have to wait at least till the week of the fight for the big money to be coming in.
     
  15. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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  16. Dilan Cummingsworth Banned Banned

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    All I want to see is Conor standing in front of Khabib yelling at the top of his lungs like a mad man with Dana standing there with his arm in between the two during the pre-fight faceoffs and I will be a happy fan




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  17. anthdeg White Belt

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    The only way to make money on this is by Conor KO or maybe you believe it goes in the later rounds and bet the over.. this is possible considering many times we always think someone is gonna get knocked out in the first and it ends up going to a decision
     
  18. starfish01 White Belt

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    You dont think the difference in cardio between the Alvarez and Diaz fights is that Mcgregor had a tough fights with Diaz and a ridiculously easy one with Alvarez? While I dont think Mcgregor has horrible cardio, but IMO it has absolutely nothing to do with what weight class he is in, its on how much energy he has to expend to maintain a level of pace to implement his volume pressuring style, based on the matchup he is faced with. The Diaz fights he had to unload on Nate to get any effect, Nate would give him a couple back in exchanges, McGregor really had to work hard to implement his game. Alvarez was in Conors world the entire fight, he was getting hurt and detered anytime McGregor landed a punch, McGregor maintained excellent positioning in the cage through the entire bout, landing anytime he threw with minimal effort while taking minimal shots himself.

    EDIT: after perusing fightmetric, Over the first 2 rounds of both Diaz fights, Mcgregor threw approx x2 more strikes and received x8 more strikes when compared to the Alvarez bout. 2 of Eddies 9 total strikes were to McGregor's head.

    We'll see if Khabib looks more like Nate or Eddie. But Khabib's chin, pressure and toughness leads me and many others to initially believe that Conor is going to have to work hard in this fight, and in that case putting stake in his historic gas tank issues is 100% justified. Conor's energy seems to be cyclical throughout the bout so he does recover, but he has very visibly gassed during moments in his tough fights.
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2018
  19. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    I think a lot of you are making the classic mistake of thinking you have to have a big wager because it is a big fight. There are so many better spots on this fight card than trying to guess if Conor sparks Khabib early or Khabib mauls him on the mat. And you really are guessing because we haven't seen Conor in a very long time.
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Agree. I have .7u on Khabib -140 only so far plus tiny stabs at Conor dec +1300 and split/maj dec st +2650. Basically with this fight I'm just watching lone movement on EVERYTHING and sniping little bets when specific lines make big moves. I might end up with a decent amount in total but it will be spread over a lot of bets and all of them will be at juicy odds. That's one great thing about huge fights is that the increased amount of action (even on props) means big line swings that you can take advantage of if you are keeping an eye on them. Or...you don't get the swings you want and you have less action which costs you nothing.

    I have a feeling there will be a lot of sharp minds in here with big freeroll opportunities. Not just on ML but even on props.
     

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