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UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Conor/Khabib: I have a small bet on "Fights ends via KO/TKO/DQ" at -125 and I like it.
    I think it covers 95% of the way Conor wins and at least 50% of Khabibs. I know Khabib by decision is likely (maybe a sub too but he said he wasnt going for subs) but 25 minutes is a long time.

    Already on Pettis at +272. I favor Ferg but I think Showtime has a really good chance here. He is one of the most dynamics finishers in the UFC and Tony puts himself in bad positions a lot.
     
  2. Danis_champ Brown Belt

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    Khabib KO/TKO is 4.25. Gold mine imo if you on Khabib. I doubt he goes for sub if he can in this fight. Khabib held back against Al because Al took it on short notice. AKA fighters do that previous example Silva vs Cormier. Khabib said he wants to rearrange Conor's face I think he won't stop until he pounds McGregor out with punches. And Conor has the worse cardio of all guys Khabib has ever fought. Imo it's a matter of 1-3 rounds until Conor gets finished. Let's be real Conor doesn't have the heart of Barboza or MJ. Very very unlikely this goes to dec. This is for Khabib backers. If you on McGregor by KO then don't read this
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Conor showed plenty of heart in the rematch with Diaz. I think great chance Khabib pounds him out so I don't mind your bet at all but saying Conor doesn't have MJ's heart? Can't agree with that.
     
  4. Karmello Purple Belt

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    I'm hoping to freeroll this fight and that's why I'm pretty big on Conor now, not because I'm sure he will win, but because I think the odds on Khabib will get better and I think a lot of people are on Conor for the same reason as me. I just hope I'm right and can get a freeroll going on both sides, so that I can just enjoy the fight as a fan.

    And to be honest I favor Khabib here and if Conor can't KO him in the 1st or 2nd I think Khabib will win.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2018
  5. AxeMurderer Orange Belt

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    I don’t think people give enough weight to how taxing khabibs wrestling is on his opponents. If conor does not get khabib out of there early, I just don’t see him stuffing all of the takedown attempts. That means multiple minutes of this beast constantly working on top of you. Can conor survive? Sure, but not without expending tons of energy just to survive and have that same animal coming at him next round.

    We have seen fights go different than expected, but not with this drastic of styles. I would be absolutely shocked to see khabib last longer than 2 roundsof straight stand up or conor under khabibs pressure top game. I am on khabib, but will wait til weigh ins and Conor money comes in to bet and also under 3 rounds depending on the odds.
     
  6. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Yeah that's what I've been thinking. Khabib may have looked slower toward the end of 5 rounds, but if Khabib gets that going early it's gonna drain Conor a lot more than it'll drain him
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    He slowed down even in rd 3 vs Barboza.

    I wonder if Khabib has a lot more variance in how his weight cuts go than other guys. And if his cardio is mostly a reflection of whether it was one of his easier or more difficult weight cuts.
     
  8. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Khabibs dad said in an interview once that cutting the weight is harder than being in the octagon for khabib
     
  9. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    Plenty of money has been wagered on both sides already. for sure some people have already bet large amounts on conor @2.5ish and khabib @1.71 before the line got hammered down. this fight has probably already had more wagered on it than many entire ppv's. now ofc most of the money will come in on fight week but just because it's happened before don't expect mcgregors odds to get hammered down to evens, it could happen but we've already seen khabib's line get uni-formally smashed from 1.7 to 1.6. this is a different circumstance to all of conor's other fights.

    many people are lining up to bet khabib who has a very trustworthy style for betting. on top of having a pretty large grp of ppl betting him too in the russian/eastern european books. I've seen many ppl in here just assume conor's odds are going to shorten a LOT when the "irish money" comes in, just because it's happened before in completely different circumstances.. and again it could happen but im a lot more doubtful this time we will see the same amount of movement on conor.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2018
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Agree. I think the **best** case scenario for Khabib bettors is gonna be around -125 to -130. That's BEST case imo. I bet Khabib -140 and don't regret it one bit.

    The 0 in Khabib's loss column is a big deal. And you put it perfectly calling Khabib's style "trustworthy". There's nothing big money bettors like better in gambling than predictability.

    In addition, how many casuals that ran out to put their $20 on Conor at +500 or whatever he was at a given time vs Floyd are going to be as gung-ho to do it after losing that bet? (Especially knowing the payout will be much less if he wins this time).
     
  11. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    it pays to shop around for bets like this, same line is 4.75 at most places. dunno if you have access to betfair but same line is 5.2 there atm. I agree that it's unlikely khabib goes for a sub though. too much to gain from him just smashing conor for a tko, and that's his style anyway. he's not gonna let conor of the hook like he did with MJ. sub could happen if khabib's getting tired and near the end of a round i guess or it's rnd 5 and can't get conor out with GnP. but i don't understand why khabib sub line is much lower than his ko line.
     
  12. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah, I thought the same about khabib's price. that's sorta where im looking. i regret not taking him at -140 (1.7/1.71) I just did not expect it to get bet so quickly at that point. ppl discounting that line movement so far out from the fight could miss out on the odds they want completely. 1 thing that worries me about the line though is how volatile it could become if khabib looks to be having a real tough weight cut. could cause chaos with the line 1 day out.
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah, I think there could be some large swings both ways in the days leading up to the fight (depending on a lot of things--including what you mentioned about Khabib's weight cut). But...that could also mean great opportunities. I'm checking the lines (props included) often, and might end up with a lot of freerollls based on the line swings.
     
  14. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    I think 1 thing everyone needs to be aware of is how a fight of this magnitude can easily change how you bet compared to if these guys were an avg ppv fight and relatively unknown. all of the hype that is beginning to circulate will make it very easy for people to over analyze and deviate from there normal betting system. watch how lots of ppl will bet huge amounts seemingly just because it's a giant fight, or bet like 10 different props on the same fight among other things. if you aren't that confident there's no need to force a bet just because it feels like everyone else is gonna bet this fight.
     
  15. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    If anything I'll have less at risk on a fight like this. I'll have big amounts "in play", but a lot of it will be freerolls as the lines swing due to the increased overall action. If we don't see those swings, I'm totally fine with my relatively small action and to just look to live bet it.
     
  16. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    same, im checking them every day. should be a lot of opportunities if patient. there's a lot of extra ways to play this fight to play the fight too with lines that aren't normally common, making it easier to hedge and freeroll. I'll probably have a lot of money on this fight but a small liability.
     
  17. Karmello Purple Belt

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    Yeah for sure on the Matchbook Exchange that I use there's already over €100K matched for this fight.

    For me I don't need Khabibs odds to get to evens to get a nice freeroll going and they probably won't get to evens anyway, but I do think the odds on him will get better closer to fight night. And a ridiculous amount of money did come in on Conor against a 49-0 boxer in a boxing match and so many people were convinced he was gonna beat Floyd<45>, so who knows what can happen here. But we can speculate all we want about this, but the only way to find out is to wait and see.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2018
  18. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    Its a matter of 2 rounds my friend, house on Khabib. Joking with the house but Khabib should win this fight if he doesnt get a left punch by Conor in first 2 rounds.
     
  19. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Huge on Conor on the +165 opener but only so I can hedge for maximum profit when Khabib closes as the underdog.
     
  20. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    what makes you think khabib will close a dog?
     

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