UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

I feel like Laflare DEC -104 is one of those lines that'll seem like a gift in retrospect.
His ml isn't far off and still trending upwards, you might be able to get that at -110 instead in a day or two instead
 
It might be unpopular opinion, but i feel like conors striking skills are greatly overexaggerated. For many reasons too. One of the big reasons is that he has fought so many stationary strikers throughout his career. People point to the aldo fight as adding to the legend of conor.

Aldo came in chin high and got clipped clean with a power punch and got tkod. We get it. Conor has power. Nothing was learned from that fight.
I think I know what you mean. Conor relies on that straight left A LOT. It's almost like Ronda and her armbar. (flame incoming) It will get figured out eventually. However both Ronda and Conor have shown that if your "one trick" is god-like in execution you can ride that pony up to a UFC belt.
 
Money coming in on Khabib haha. Thought it would be vice versa. Khabib is now 1.58 at betsafe. Maybe because Conor had bum open workout? I think he didn't look good hitting pads
 
Khabib at 1.58 on Betsafe is a shitty odd, I was expecting the odds to get better as it gets closer to the fight but it actually dropped from 1.60 two days ago. Shitty odds but good parlay material.

On another note I found, what I think to be the best on this card:
Khabib vs McGregor over 2.5 at 2.07 odds. Unless McG Aldo's him (doubtful) then I think it's a good choice, I predict first round for both fighters to be relatively safe, second round Khabib finally pushes McGregor to the fence and takes him down there and smeshes for rest of the round. By third round McG will be gassed to beyond belief from either defending takedowns or getting smeshed that everything is downhill from there and fight can end any moment. Also, if it turns out that Khabib somehow has a worse gas tank than McGregor and loses steam completely after 2nd round and McGregor picks him apart, then the o2.5 still wins. The odds are good.



On other notes: Anthony Pettis by sub at 12.0 odds is a crazy value bet. I think T-Ferg gets this but this is worth a small amount of €.

Betting on Kunitskaya seems to be the safest bet on the card.
 
down to 12 fights already. if everyone treats the main event as 100% owned we down to basically 11 fights. double the number of entrys and the potential for ties is huge here. hard to imagine conor being under owned with extra casuls so no edge in being overweight conor certainly. fading the fight small is an angle im thinking of as the chance of him making enough pts may be overestimated. increase the chance of a scoop.

win in r3 currently 7% chance and i dont think he 12x here. certanly not 13x. sure he could if spends a rd knocking khabib around the cage but he could also knock him out cold, 1 punch and score 60. 2kd would still need him landing 60 strikes. catching him clean at the start of r2 he potentialy comes up short too. al iaquinta had only landed 10 sig strikes by the end of r3.

its a 10% chance i think is worth targeting and hopfully will be ignored. if i was all in would prob do 20% (his r1 odds) conor and 80% khabib. wasnt playing draftkings much back when conor fought last so im kinda just assuming he is going to be over owned but dont really know. much rather be overweight khabib


7800. 12x is 93.6 pts. 13x is 101.4

I did 10 lineups so far (that will probably be it for me). All GPP lineups. Turns out I have Khabib in 7, Conor in 2, and one with neither. So I guess in the end we are thinking pretty much the same.
 
Khabib at 1.58 on Betsafe is a shitty odd, I was expecting the odds to get better as it gets closer to the fight but it actually dropped from 1.60 two days ago. Shitty odds but good parlay material..

That doesn't make sense.
 
Unpopular opinion here but I actually think he's pretty mediocre. He's excellent with his legs but his footwork and boxing leaves a lot to be desired. Dariush piecing him up was all I needed to see to solidify that opinion. Also see his straight-back-baby-deer-on-ice footwork when being pressured.

I don't think we can compare any striker to Conor because none of Khabib's opponents have the hand speed and skills that Conor has along with his footwork. It's one thing to crowd Barboza when you're just trying to avoid large windups from kicks, but another to avoid straight shots down the pipe from a boxer that has excellent distance management, range, and timing.

One thing I agree on though is how difficult it is to avoid clinching. Every Conor fight outside of Aldo has ended up in the clinch at some point -- even Eddie got there.

edit: lifeisgood12345 basically said the same..didnt see his post until after

Yeah not saying Barboza is super similar to Conor, just the closest thing Khabib has faced. Barboza's hands aren't amazing but they are okay. He does throw tight, powerful knees at short distance though to somewhat make up for it.

The bigger point though was whether Khabib can successfully navigate the distance against a far superior striker. And when you are only trying to navigate distance to clinch it is MUCH easier than when you are trying to do it to strike and do damage standing. Like you said, even Conor who prefers to snipe from distance has been forced to clinch often in his career. And being forced into the clinch vs Khabib is an entirely different animal. He will suffocate you and take you down. And from there he will do damage unless you have a terrific defensive guard (RDA for example-Khabib did zero damage in that fight). Is Conor capable of defending that well off his back? I tend to doubt it.
 
Khabib at 1.58 on Betsafe is a shitty odd, I was expecting the odds to get better as it gets closer to the fight but it actually dropped from 1.60 two days ago. Shitty odds but good parlay material.

On another note I found, what I think to be the best on this card:
Khabib vs McGregor over 2.5 at 2.07 odds. Unless McG Aldo's him (doubtful) then I think it's a good choice, I predict first round for both fighters to be relatively safe, second round Khabib finally pushes McGregor to the fence and takes him down there and smeshes for rest of the round. By third round McG will be gassed to beyond belief from either defending takedowns or getting smeshed that everything is downhill from there and fight can end any moment. Also, if it turns out that Khabib somehow has a worse gas tank than McGregor and loses steam completely after 2nd round and McGregor picks him apart, then the o2.5 still wins. The odds are good.



On other notes: Anthony Pettis by sub at 12.0 odds is a crazy value bet. I think T-Ferg gets this but this is worth a small amount of €.

Betting on Kunitskaya seems to be the safest bet on the card.

I'd be extremely surprised if the first round is relatively safe and Khabib doesn't get McGregor to the fence until Rd 2. Khabib's biggest mistake would be to try to play it safe on the outside in Rd 1. I'd be shocked if he isn't attempting a takedown or has McGregor on the fence within the first minute. If he's on the outside, McGregor isn't going to let 5 minutes go by without pressuring, and pressuring from McGregor will likely lead to a shot.
 
Could you elaborate on this a little?
Yes i will.

Conors competition in the past hasn't exactly been stellar. I don't even consider his win over Aldo as great as it should be, as it ended in 1 punch in 13 seconds. We didn't learn anything about either fighter in that fight. We didn't learn anything about how conor reacts with a striker who is better than him, how well he can take a punch, or if he has the heart to fight through adversity.

That fight ended with one punch thrown. We all already know Conor has KO power.


I will give credit where credit is due and say that he does have a couple decent wins in the UFC. His wins over Brandao and Porier are his most credible wins IMO. The rest of them........... not so much. I know I sound like a typical Conor hater with all this, but I'm just a realistic MMA fan. Most of his opponents have either been short notice replacements, or had some other disadvantageous affliction going into a fight with him. Marcus Brimage is a bum, so we'll just get that one out of the way, and Conor had some trouble with him early. Conor fans like to reference his win over Max Holloway from 5 years ago, but Holloway was very green at the time and was just coming off a loss to Dennis Bermudez.


After his win over Porier the hype machine shifted from 2nd gear to 5th gear. Dana started publicly forcing the narrative that "Conor will be the next big thing. This kid will be a star." and then he started to pick and choose who he fights. Out of all the contenders in the division he chose to fight Denis Siver. Denis fucking Siver lol. Let's not try to act like Denis Siver is a world beater. Then it was Chad Mendes (quality opponent) who took the fight on a weeks notice. That's just enough time to get off the couch and cut the weight. We all know what happened in that fight. Conor got mauled until Mendes got tired.


Do we even need to talk about the Nate Diaz fights? As I said about the Aldo fight that we didn't learn anything, his 2 fights with Diaz were on the opposite end of the spectrum. We learned that Diaz, while extremely hittable, can take that power left over and over and over again. We learned that Conor doesn't really have any assault outside of a traditional boxing attack. We learned that Conor gets amazingly tired after 1 and a half rounds. We learned that Conor DOESN'T adapt well to adversity. AT ALL. We learned that Conor isn't just a fish out of water when the fight hits the mat, he's a fish in a sandbox.

I think his win over Eddie Alvarez is overstated too. I've never thought Eddie was a UFC caliber fighter, and that his win over RDA might be one of the greatest flukes in the last 10 years. Eddie is super chinny, has a sub par offensive wrestling attack (even though people for some reason claim he's a great wrestler), and is 2 judges away from having a 3-4 record in the UFC.



What amazes me is the smokescreen that the UFC has created with Conor. Through selective matchups, marketing, and manipulation, people have been so mystified into thinking that if Khabib even gets close to Conor he will magically get KO'd in spectacular fashion by an off-the-top-ropes-flying-dragon-punch or something equally ridiculous. Khabib said it best. Conor fights for money, and Khabib fights for legacy. Conor has had a lot of beneficial circumstances in the UFC, and has had a billion dollar institution behind him trying to hype him up. The UFC manufactured a star. They manufactured a money maker. They made a trash talking Irishman look like one of the greatest fighters ever. I feel like Will Ferrell in Zoolander by wanting to scream "Am I taking crazy pills?!".

I'm sure there are a lot of points of emphasis I'm leaving out, but here is my elaboration.






TLDR: Conor only fights lesser strikers, and one wrestler on a weeks notice. Khabib will maul him.
 
Yes i will.

Conors competition in the past hasn't exactly been stellar. I don't even consider his win over Aldo as great as it should be, as it ended in 1 punch in 13 seconds. We didn't learn anything about either fighter in that fight. We didn't learn anything about how conor reacts with a striker who is better than him, how well he can take a punch, or if he has the heart to fight through adversity.

That fight ended with one punch thrown. We all already know Conor has KO power.


I will give credit where credit is due and say that he does have a couple decent wins in the UFC. His wins over Brandao and Porier are his most credible wins IMO. The rest of them........... not so much. I know I sound like a typical Conor hater with all this, but I'm just a realistic MMA fan. Most of his opponents have either been short notice replacements, or had some other disadvantageous affliction going into a fight with him. Marcus Brimage is a bum, so we'll just get that one out of the way, and Conor had some trouble with him early. Conor fans like to reference his win over Max Holloway from 5 years ago, but Holloway was very green at the time and was just coming off a loss to Dennis Bermudez.


After his win over Porier the hype machine shifted from 2nd gear to 5th gear. Dana started publicly forcing the narrative that "Conor will be the next big thing. This kid will be a star." and then he started to pick and choose who he fights. Out of all the contenders in the division he chose to fight Denis Siver. Denis fucking Siver lol. Let's not try to act like Denis Siver is a world beater. Then it was Chad Mendes (quality opponent) who took the fight on a weeks notice. That's just enough time to get off the couch and cut the weight. We all know what happened in that fight. Conor got mauled until Mendes got tired.


Do we even need to talk about the Nate Diaz fights? As I said about the Aldo fight that we didn't learn anything, his 2 fights with Diaz were on the opposite end of the spectrum. We learned that Diaz, while extremely hittable, can take that power left over and over and over again. We learned that Conor doesn't really have any assault outside of a traditional boxing attack. We learned that Conor gets amazingly tired after 1 and a half rounds. We learned that Conor DOESN'T adapt well to adversity. AT ALL. We learned that Conor isn't just a fish out of water when the fight hits the mat, he's a fish in a sandbox.

I think his win over Eddie Alvarez is overstated too. I've never thought Eddie was a UFC caliber fighter, and that his win over RDA might be one of the greatest flukes in the last 10 years. Eddie is super chinny, has a sub par offensive wrestling attack (even though people for some reason claim he's a great wrestler), and is 2 judges away from having a 3-4 record in the UFC.



What amazes me is the smokescreen that the UFC has created with Conor. Through selective matchups, marketing, and manipulation, people have been so mystified into thinking that if Khabib even gets close to Conor he will magically get KO'd in spectacular fashion by an off-the-top-ropes-flying-dragon-punch or something equally ridiculous. Khabib said it best. Conor fights for money, and Khabib fights for legacy. Conor has had a lot of beneficial circumstances in the UFC, and has had a billion dollar institution behind him trying to hype him up. The UFC manufactured a star. They manufactured a money maker. They made a trash talking Irishman look like one of the greatest fighters ever. I feel like Will Ferrell in Zoolander by wanting to scream "Am I taking crazy pills?!".

I'm sure there are a lot of points of emphasis I'm leaving out, but here is my elaboration.






TLDR: Conor only fights lesser strikers, and one wrestler on a weeks notice. Khabib will maul him.
Man the way you are discrediting Conor is way off. If you want to discredit his wins against top talent in the FW and LW division, then I can do the absolute same with Khabib.

Khabib only has two good wins on his record.

RDA from 2014 (just like you want to say Conor's win over a young Max in a fight he hurt his knee doesn't mean anything, the same Max that hasn't lost since)when he was losing off and on before he went on the juice and went on that LW tear, and Barboza. Barboza is a good win. But besides that, who else? Michael Johnson who is 2-5 in his last 7 and should be 1-6 as I think he lost to Fili. Johnson also has 8 sub losses on his record, so how impressive is that sub win?

Horcher...enough said.

Al Iquantia who took the fight on 1 days notice and was not preparing for a wrestler or a 5 round fight (just like you want to discredit the Mendes win)

Pat Healy, Triullo. Ya big names there.

Close fight he should have lost to Tibau.

Conor's wins is way better than Khabib no matter how you try to spin it.
 
I think his win over Eddie Alvarez is overstated too. I've never thought Eddie was a UFC caliber fighter

The hatred is strong with this one.

Behave.

Through selective matchups, marketing, and manipulation

Eddie was the champ. Conor was set to fight RDA who pulled out. Aldo was the champ. He didn't need to rematch Diaz at 170 but he did. I was a Conor skeptic but he is legit. Even if Khabib mauls him he's legit.
 
I have read some shit here in these betting threads but saying Eddie Alvarez is not a ufc level fighter is just terrible.
 
my man said shit odds but good parlay material ctfu
 
Yes i will.

Conors competition in the past hasn't exactly been stellar. I don't even consider his win over Aldo as great as it should be, as it ended in 1 punch in 13 seconds. We didn't learn anything about either fighter in that fight. We didn't learn anything about how conor reacts with a striker who is better than him, how well he can take a punch, or if he has the heart to fight through adversity.

That fight ended with one punch thrown. We all already know Conor has KO power.


I will give credit where credit is due and say that he does have a couple decent wins in the UFC. His wins over Brandao and Porier are his most credible wins IMO. The rest of them........... not so much. I know I sound like a typical Conor hater with all this, but I'm just a realistic MMA fan. Most of his opponents have either been short notice replacements, or had some other disadvantageous affliction going into a fight with him. Marcus Brimage is a bum, so we'll just get that one out of the way, and Conor had some trouble with him early. Conor fans like to reference his win over Max Holloway from 5 years ago, but Holloway was very green at the time and was just coming off a loss to Dennis Bermudez.


After his win over Porier the hype machine shifted from 2nd gear to 5th gear. Dana started publicly forcing the narrative that "Conor will be the next big thing. This kid will be a star." and then he started to pick and choose who he fights. Out of all the contenders in the division he chose to fight Denis Siver. Denis fucking Siver lol. Let's not try to act like Denis Siver is a world beater. Then it was Chad Mendes (quality opponent) who took the fight on a weeks notice. That's just enough time to get off the couch and cut the weight. We all know what happened in that fight. Conor got mauled until Mendes got tired.


Do we even need to talk about the Nate Diaz fights? As I said about the Aldo fight that we didn't learn anything, his 2 fights with Diaz were on the opposite end of the spectrum. We learned that Diaz, while extremely hittable, can take that power left over and over and over again. We learned that Conor doesn't really have any assault outside of a traditional boxing attack. We learned that Conor gets amazingly tired after 1 and a half rounds. We learned that Conor DOESN'T adapt well to adversity. AT ALL. We learned that Conor isn't just a fish out of water when the fight hits the mat, he's a fish in a sandbox.

I think his win over Eddie Alvarez is overstated too. I've never thought Eddie was a UFC caliber fighter, and that his win over RDA might be one of the greatest flukes in the last 10 years. Eddie is super chinny, has a sub par offensive wrestling attack (even though people for some reason claim he's a great wrestler), and is 2 judges away from having a 3-4 record in the UFC.



What amazes me is the smokescreen that the UFC has created with Conor. Through selective matchups, marketing, and manipulation, people have been so mystified into thinking that if Khabib even gets close to Conor he will magically get KO'd in spectacular fashion by an off-the-top-ropes-flying-dragon-punch or something equally ridiculous. Khabib said it best. Conor fights for money, and Khabib fights for legacy. Conor has had a lot of beneficial circumstances in the UFC, and has had a billion dollar institution behind him trying to hype him up. The UFC manufactured a star. They manufactured a money maker. They made a trash talking Irishman look like one of the greatest fighters ever. I feel like Will Ferrell in Zoolander by wanting to scream "Am I taking crazy pills?!".

I'm sure there are a lot of points of emphasis I'm leaving out, but here is my elaboration.






TLDR: Conor only fights lesser strikers, and one wrestler on a weeks notice. Khabib will maul him.
This is legit one of the worst posts on this board I’ve ever seen
 
You cannot say the phrase "Eddie Alvarez isn't UFC material" in a post and be taken seriously. You just can't.
 
The shit storm cometh lol. Poor @Ham Socks

5D killing me not having an O/U for Luque/dude who's gonna get killed.
 
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