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UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    I was calling Ladd ITD waaay back early in the thread. I still believe it, and am going to back it up with a good sized bet. Completely different career trajectories here, Ladd is 23, Evinger is approaching 40 with a rebuilt knee, dropping back down in weight after a pointless and brutal thrashing by Cyborg.

    Doesn't seem like a winning sort of momentum to carry into a bout with someone like Ladd. These two were dead even when the line opened but money has been consistently trickling in on Ladd.
     
  2. null Gold Belt

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    I bet Evinger early, but this is making me seriously re-think my position. This can't just be great nutrtition.
     
  3. Bestonian Can't be assed with grammar

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    Post Aspen's mother's pictures pls. There is something very elevating going on. In my pants.
     
  4. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    I could care less what it is, lol, to be completely honest. I predicted a brutal rag dolling and I stand by it. It was 4xx but has since dropped to something like +240ish. Wonder what I'll be able to get it at.
     
  5. piglord Black Belt

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  6. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Ladd opened -265. Also I strongly suggest you watch tape and reconsider
     
  7. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Confidence uh......... increase in Ladd. Yeah that's it. <Lmaoo>
     
  8. null Gold Belt

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    I just switched to a big wager on Ladd at -165 after having early action on Evinger between +185 & +100. Also the Under 2½ for +215 at Bookmaker is much better price than elsewhere.
     
  9. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Because of that picture? Seems pretty odd to do a complete 180 on a lean and switch to a "big wager" because she looks ripped.
     
  10. Larthus Orange Belt

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    I absolutely agree with Ham Socks (the Alvarez comment was slightly out of pocket, but the rest was spot-on)
    --
    Conor's power is discussed on an almost hyperbolic level. His precision may be elite, but there's no evidence to suggest that he throws harder than MJ who Khabib has already fought. His infamous left hand isn't as good as people think against fighters who are larger than him.

    Conor almost lost to Nate Diaz twice. That is an indication of a fighter who will retire within the upper echelon but will never be on the level of Jon Jones, TJ Dillashaw, etc. He simply does not have the complete skillset to do so. His cardio is terrible, his ground game is average, he relies completely on his standup.

    People are betting on him because of the picture he paints of himself through his charisma. The only wrestler he has ever faced (Mendes) does not have the same type of pressure Khabib does on the ground. If Conor goes down, which he will, he will be holding Khabib's weight & have to deal with his top control. This will gas him. He will lose his power. This has mismatch written all over it. Khabib wins this 95% of the time, there will be no fairy tale knockout. I repeat, there will be no fairytale knockout. Conor will be taken down, slowly gassed out, and mauled.

    You don't almost lose to Nate Diaz TWICE & go on to be considered an "elite" fighter.

    Love Conor? Cool. Just know that your hero is going to get ragdolled throughout rounds 3 - 5, potentially for the entire fight, and his aura of invincibility will be completely diminished after this Saturday.
     
  11. Xuh Silver Belt

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    agree & it's a immediate post-workout pic... you can even see weights behind her... it's not like she walks around looking like that.
     
  12. Ham Socks Professional Fighter

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    Preach it.


    The greatest fighters in their division don't lose to Nate Diaz.
     
  13. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    He has more than enough meaningful wins under his belt to consider him elite. Almost every elite fighter and champion has at least one or more losses on their record, because they're human and they can make mistakes despite being really good at what they do. He's a specialist, of course he's going to rely on his stand up, and it has brought him great success. I don't think cardio is his strength, but if it is straight up terrible how was he able to hang (and beat) a strong cardio-fighter in Nate Diaz in a 5 rounder? Any fighter can gas out in a fight, especially if they're pushing for a finish. Nate's losses historically came from grinding type grapplers, something Conor obviously wasn't going to replicate, so stylistically it was kind of a tough match up for Conor.

    I'm not sure why you're taking this passive-aggressive tone either, this isn't the heavies. There is no need for that. Who here really identifies as a Conor fanboy? I certainly don't, doesn't mean I can't acknowledge when people are selling him short. Does he match the massive amount of hype, probably not, but almost no one can really match their myth.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2018
  14. null Gold Belt

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    Look at Ladd's social media, it's not just one photo. She's clearly gained a lot of muscle and is surely on the sauce imho, not just eating healthy. I thought Evinger was a decent value bet between +185 and +100 before based on her experience and skillset. But Ladd's youth, improvements, finishing ability and this new regimen contrasted with Evinger's age and injury recovery have switched the value proposition for me.
     
  15. Caicara Purple Belt

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    I have a small feeling that I should ask for Conor by Knee KO prop.
    He's a fast learner and I remember him mimicking Romero's knee vs Weidman

    Odds should be astronomic...Yeah. I'd do it
     
  16. Orion Brown Belt

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    Her voice has sounded sauced up for awhile too. Clear change from her Invicta days and definitely some side effects going on there
     
  17. Ryan Kelly Green Belt

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    He meant Eddie is the most accomplished LW of all time. Conor has only 1 fight at 155.
     
  18. Ryan Kelly Green Belt

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    Oh fuck. I bet Evinger early. Confidence decrease.
     
  19. Ryan Kelly Green Belt

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    Volkov at -170 is one of my favorite spots on this card. Vastly superior technical striker. Doesn’t have a huge reach advantage even though he’s several inches taller than Lewis, but I expect him to be able to pick Lewis apart from the outside. Lewis is relatively unskilled and has just been super fucking lucky in the ufc imo. He’s a guy I’ve never believed in similar to Vick and Ortega. Plus his back is all fucked up. Been waiting for a good spot to fade him and here it is.
     
  20. Jackonfire BMF Mod Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Reminder to keep your posts on topic. If you're in the mood to argue, take it to the Heavies.
     

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