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UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. The Blob Banned Banned

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    Khabib is the far better fighter and I plan to place a huge bet on him when he gets closer to even money.

    However Unibet had a special of McGregor to win @ +200 so I placed $25 on that, because you never know if the judges could seriously fuck it up, or perhaps the fix is in for Conor to win. Pro sports have a long history of shady shit happening for money makers to get the edge.
     
  2. stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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    I am surprised by how many people are MEGA confident in Khabib....

    That last performance vs Iaquinta was average at best and Connor is the striking king. Prior to the Iaquinta I liked Khabib to win but now not so much.

    Probably betting Connor...maybe.
     
  3. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    It’s Conor, there will be a huge dumping of money on him on the way to fight time.
     
  4. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    that's a rather basic assumption tbh. when has conor's line ever moved that much before? i'm not sure conor's line has ever moved that much apart from a few days after an "off" opener. and to do so against khabib who is by far his hardest test to date is a reach. the line movement so far has already showed a substantial interest betting khabib whenever he drifts. he got bet pretty hard when he drifted to 1.7 back down to 1.6 very quick and the lines been fairly stagnant since. not saying it's impossible but something very big needs to happen for khabib to be a dog at the start of the fight..

    this "irish money" thing is becoming grossly exaggerated by a lot of people in here.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    People's memories are skewed by the boxing match vs Floyd is the simple explanation honestly. And that was a COMPLETELY different scenario for a lot of reasons, but the main 2 are:

    1. Conor was a MONSTER dog in that fight. People saw a "name" guy at +600 or whatever, and thought, "Hey, why not throw a bit of cash on him for a big payout if he wins. He's obviously a big deal..."

    2. It had a ton of people with eyes on it that don't normally watch (or bet on) MMA. The ppv #s were obviously way beyond any UFC card ever. So you had all the UFC casuals throwing a bit of change on "their guy" trying to hit a good payout, plus casual "event" fans (not specifically MMA or boxing fans, but people who just like to be a part of a big "happening") tossing their $20 on the big underdog. Sure, the "Irish" money maybe got added to that, but it wasn't the driving factor at all. I saw an interview with the guy who runs one of the bigger books in Vegas who was saying that it was one of the first times he could remember actually WANTING more sharp $ to come in on Floyd because it wasn't keeping up with the casuals betting Conor and they were super exposed if Conor had somehow won. He said they were fine having more liability and exposure than normal on Floyd but it actually got a bit too far out of whack to the point where they were genuinely nervous. The books made a FORTUNE on that fight, but would have taken an absolute bath had Conor somehow won.
     
  6. MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    good breakdown for the most part but this line is just pure player hating. Like another poster has said, Connor is ridiculous but he is a fighter to the bone.
     
  7. MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    hey I found "that guy"
     
  8. joenewbie Orange Belt

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    I think you are correct about this however I know some casual MMA fans who know nothing about betting could place their first wagers on this fight. The Supreme Court decision last June plus the excitement of this superfight might get some off the fence regarding putting money down.

    I was one of the casuals who put money on Conor. This was before I knew anything about the odds and money side of betting but I was in Lake Tahoe, NV and put $50 (at +425) for myself plus bought two $10 tickets for friends. I just read an old article about betting on the Floyd fight and the director of MGM race and sportsbook in Vegas said they took 2,500 separate bets on Conor and only 65 on Floyd. It was that lopsided.

    I will be going to Vegas again for this fight and a friend wants to join me. I would like to see Khabib get down to -120 or better since I do think Conor is a threat with his stand up, but I'm not counting on the line flipping. It did flip for GSP/Bisping though.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
  9. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    I do think he had to work harder by expending more energy at the 170 fights, fighting at 170 really hurts his cardio. Eddie was working just as hard as Diaz in those early rounds, the fight metrics are misleading because Diaz was good with just boxing McGregor, Alvarez tried to initiate a takedown for a good portion of the 1st which captured no punching statistics (although Conor was using energy more efficiently by defending the takedown).
     
  10. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    This guy’s video are the best, I highly recommend the Khabib ones regarding Khabib’s ground techniques and Conor’s takedown defense using his right.
     
  11. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    There can be a lot of money made based on how you think the line is going to move as more information is known by more casual MMA fans. This will probably be the biggest MMA fight and people that normally don’t gamble on MMA will gamble for this fight (feels like “arbitrage” but it’s not because MMA betters having information advantages). Those bettors will shift lines from the normal MMA betting equilibrium based on their betting tendencies (I.e what they value when assessing a winning fighter). The more casual bettors probably overvalue confidence and striking as they are more entertaining to watch after initial viewing and people anchor on what they initially see.

    This fight is a classic example of beating the market before it gets to the place it should be. A recent example is the Fili/Johnson fight where it should have been a coin toss and Johnson went from large favorite to small underdog.
     
  12. WetBlanket White Belt

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    Agree with everything but one thing Johnson went from slight favorite to small underdog.
     
  13. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    even with the floyd fight, conor's odds have never moved as much as people are claiming they will here. the price was obviously way off vs mayweather, but being a different sport, ridiculous hype and juicy odds for dumb casuals to bet conor at there's not many things that are relevant when comparing the odds for that fight with this one. I've yet to see 1 good reason why the line would change so radically in conors favor without khabib having a brutal weight cut or injury. I'm still pissed that i didnt make more money on the floyd fight, really was as close to free money as you can get. Could see a couple smaller books going broke if conor had somehow won lol.
     
  14. Lightbringer Yellow Belt

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    With the ESPN deal coming out, this Conor / Khabib fight will be all over sportscenter and on dumb shows like First take and I have a feeling a lot of casuals who bet all sports will throw some cash on Conor. I do feel at some point Conor will be a favorite. Maybe not at close, but at some point.
     
  15. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I don't honestly remember exactly how much Conor's line moved in the boxing match vs Floyd but it did move a lot. Books ended up so exposed.

    But yeah...we aren't gonna see that kind of movement here imo.
     
  16. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    For this event I like
    Felice Herrig
    Alan Patrick
    Dominick Reyes
    Sean O Malley
    Khabib Nurmagomedov
     
  17. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    I think Johnson started around -160 to -170.
     
  18. starfish01 White Belt

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    I dont think the energy expenditure/draining of defending a few desperate, poorly set up takedowns(by only a above average wrestler, Alvarez gets overrated in that dept) is anywhere near what he was dealing with boxing with Diaz, idk what to tell you man. I think you are trying too hard to convince yourself its the weight instead of the massive difference in dynamics between those two fights. Versus Khabib I think there is a chance we see that the difference in boxing skill is so great that McGregor looks like he did vs Alvarez and doesn't tire as quickly, but I highly doubt that'll be because he is a bit leaner and cut more weight. As much of a meme " i was ineffecient with my energy " is, its def true that if you are having the exact fight you want without getting challenged with much adversity, you aren't going to tire as quickly.
     
  19. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Yeah. He got to set his own tempo against Alvarez, and was never really in a position of psychological difficulty. Panic's like 80% of cardio-expenditure, from personal experience. Relaxed fighter can last longer easily.
     
  20. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    That’s fair assessment and I don’t think we’re going to agree regarding this topic.
     

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