Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.
Good luck to anyone betting on this guy after looking like this a few months ago.
he said he was battling depression, that can make you look completely fucked. i'll be interested to see how he looks during fight week.
A fully fit Max beats Ortega 7-8/10 times IMO. Everything I've read is how people are fading Max because of the last fight but he won't get sanctioned if he's in a bad way...
If the fight goes ahead, you have assume he's fine. If he's fine, do people really favour T-City?
This is a sick fucking card.
I favour T-City. Some people will just fade T-City in every fight no matter what. He's going to bring it for 5 rounds, he looks like he has a solid chin. He has improved rapidly and no reason to think he won't improve again. Holloway looked out of it, he's taken a lot of shots and I feel like there is absolutely no way I can pick a guy who was thought to have brain issues and looking like a retard on TV before having his fight scrapped a few months ago. What the hell are people thinking? Research the Paul Briggs Danny Green rematch. Ortega is going to test that chin. Of all people Ortega is the wrong opponent to fight if you have any kind of issue. There is nowhere to hide in there with Ortega. You have to be mentally 100% at all times. We have seen him only need one mistake from his opponent to finish the fight a few times and I haven't seen him hurt in a fight
Ortega is very opportunistic but he isnt systematically beating people to a pulp. I think Max outlands him 3 to 1, he has good cardio and an edge in the stand up. On top of this, Ortega doesnt have great wrestling to then hunt for subs.
Max very well may be cracked but Im not willing to bet on that. IF there are any lingering issues given the seriousness of head trauma, he wont get cleared so i have to think hes ok.
If Ortega hangs in there he is going to get chances to finish/land. Its a fist fight, everyone has that chance. Hes better than many at taking his chance too but Max is the better fighter with a pretty good match up here. Im sticking to that at -120 (and that number is getting better as time goes on)
I'm pretty sure that's not just depression... His team said he was falling asleep and they had problem waking him up and getting him to respond etc during fightweek or the days before
I think it's much more likely his depression was enhanced by the symptoms of whatever he had. Feels like it has to be related to headtrauma somehow.
I refuse to get excited for this fight before it's atcually happening, got a bad hunch
I am guessing his issues related to weight cutting, dehydrated/malnourished etc. Could be way off of course
Some very interesting points made regarding Holloway vs Ortega in this thread. Personally I was leaning Blessed heavily before rewatching Holloway Aldo 1, then Ortega Swanson (very little footage I know) - changing my pick to Ortega for sure.
This guy is like an eel, everybody considers him a bjj fighter with some rudimentary striking, but boy he can take heavy shots and just zombie forward. Holloway needs to be at his absolute best to dismantle T-City, idk if he can get there anymore after these three pullouts.
I agree, I think this ain't happening. We'll end up with Ortega vs moicano 2 which gets me pumped af too. I like ortega in both matchups tbh.
I am very excited for this fight card! i would favor Holloway over Ortega. Holloway could pull the win off. I wouldn't be surprised if he does win though. If this fight goes as planned.
Love Max in this one. Gonna be huge on him absent some obv signs of CTE in the next couple of weeks.
I love Max on this one but Ortega striking is getting better with every fight. He has a helluva chin and a lot of power.
Brian always dropped rounds until he got the finish.. but in his last couple of fights he has been much much better.
Almost always a mistake to judge from a freeze frame image of a fighter.
The first pull-out was a leg injury. The second was Holloway coming in to replace Cucuy and deemed medically unfit because the weight cut ruined it (short notice weight cut to be fair). For the third the only info I saw was "concussion-like symptoms with slurred speech, drowsiness, and altered vision." Anyone not Holloway or his doctor claiming to know otherwise - whether CTE or permanent damage or something obscure like the broken neck Sidney Crosby had that gave him "concussion-like symptoms" - is merely speculating.
In my opinion, he is being smart by putting his brain first and being 100% (to fight for our money, of course). If anything, I'm going to speculate that the commission will be extra careful with him now and if/when he's cleared to fight it's only because he's 100%.
Max will show us just how inflated that can crushing 14-0 really is, propped up with wins against 30-somethings like Guida & Cub & a short-notice, slow-motion Edgar who watched as the most telegraphed upper-cut KO'd him. Short guys were landing on Ortega before head diving into chokes. Max is also the tallest and longest opponent he's faced in the UFC outside of de la Torre.
3.5 units Max ML @ 1.71
I'm not just judging it just from that picture, but by interview the picture is from and other interviews that week. Also the open workout he had then, he looked slower than Chuck did on the pads, wasn't registering which combinations his coach wanted him to throw etc. Also a lot of alarming statements that came out from people who had been around him that week
And the sentiment by many that he would not get cleared if he's not completely 100% is pretty laughable considering Chuck just got licensed to fight. The man could barely walk.
Of course he could be 100% and all the issues are gone, we just have to wait and see
Ortega all day.
JJ at this odds is a good play too, Valentina is overrated and boring as fuck.
JJ without this big weight cut might do better than in strawweight.
Man, I can understand wanting to play Max here but I can't get on board with any of this reasoning.
For one, you say Ortega's record is padded by beating out of their prime fighters? Holloway's last 4 fights: Lamas (34 at the time), Pettis (29 at the time but clearly a deteriorated fighter, moving down to weight class he had no business being in and coming in after a brutal weight cut where he missed by 3 pounds) and Aldo x 2 (30 and 31 at the time, similar situation to Pettis with him not being close to the same guy that he was during his title run and gassing horribly in both fights).
As far as the Edgar vs Ortega fight goes, Ortega was the one who stepped in on short notice, not Edgar. Also, you're forgetting that it was an elbow which had Edgar badly hurt before the uppercut that put him away. Not to mention how many here were advocating big plays on Edgar as a small favorite in that fight.
You've also neglected to mention Moicano at all, a guy who's in his prime right now, has looked like a future title challenger outside of the Ortega fight and is arguably a better win than Aldo at this stage of their careers. He's also the same height as Holloway and has a 3" longer reach. On top of that, literally everyone Ortega has fought in the UFC has had the same or longer reach than Holloway's 69".
Not to pile on too much, but I'm not sure who you're referring to as far as "short guys were landing on Ortega before head diving into chokes". The only submission in the UFC he's gotten off a takedown attempt was against Moicano, who's certainly not short.
Yeah, fair. That was a while ago though right? Brain issues are probably a forever thing though I suppose.
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