UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

[Kyle Stephens]

What is this "clear path" you say?

 

[raketmannen]

You make him sound like a skinny Derrick Lewis...

Yeah it's getting a bit ridiculous now, I've just stopped reading everything Gugabe says about Ortega, he clearly got some weird bias against him

 

[Dianabol]

Depends how he does it. If he puts together a well-rounded performance, sure. If he memes out a shitty guard-pull sub, I'm gonna keep fading him since he's a combination of a ton of factors that should not be working in MMA.


Relative to the division, he is. Hell, Derrick Lewis atleast relies on a very tangible attribute in the form of his insane power. Ortega leans on chin, cardio and guard BJJ. Three things that I happily fade all day. I'll fade Ortega till he changes his style. Maybe he'll retire one day as undefeated GOAT, but I'm willing to bet that he'll fall back to the mean and stop wildly overperforming his skill level. Miracle runs happen.

Ortega arguably has the most dangerous submission game in MMA, he's subbed 3 blackbelts in the UFC alone. I don't think you should call what he's doing "overperforming" anymore, he's a legit talent and he's proven it.

Betting against Ortega is a losing proposition and you should know this as well as anyone. Betting on Ortega is ultra profitable because he wins all his fights and he's an underdog in many of them

Betting on Holloway who is having concussion problems doesn't sound like a great idea either, that's seriously concerning and a real gamble. And even if Holloway was 100% there is still a good chance he loses to the ultra dangerous Ortega

Saying things like Oretga won't be top 10 in 2020 is just crazy, he might be champ in 2020, he hasn't even lost yet and he's still getting better.

 

[Gugabe]

Ortega arguably has the most dangerous submission game in MMA, he's subbed 3 blackbelts in the UFC alone. I don't think you should call what he's doing "overperforming" anymore, he's a legit talent and he's proven it.

Betting against Ortega is a losing proposition and you should know this as well as anyone. Betting on Ortega is ultra profitable because he wins all his fights and he's an underdog in many of them

Betting on Holloway who is having concussion problems doesn't sound like a great idea either, that's seriously concerning and a real gamble. And even if Holloway was 100% there is still a good chance he loses to the ultra dangerous Ortega

Saying things like Oretga won't be top 10 in 2020 is just crazy, he might be champ in 2020, he hasn't even lost yet and he's still getting better.

Betting on Ortega so far has been a profitable proposition. I was on him in his wins over Guida and Brandao, two wins that made me say 'Jesus, this guy's got a horrible gameplan and is the definition of -EV'. The way that Ortega gets subs is the concern. It's all relatively low-percentage stuff. It's like saying that Anthony Pettis has the best grappling game at LW since he has the most guard subs. There's a lot of context there, and a lot of room for error when you're doing things the way that Ortega does them. Sub props are my most profitable area by far, I know how to gauge guys' ground games. Ortega's is interesting, but functions a lot more like a brawler's chance than a clean, process-driven dangerous BJJ game.

I need clean performances to take him seriously. He doesn't produce them, and till he does I'm going to continue to fade him. Nothing in the tape's showing any deeper levels to his game, and I'm going to trust my judgement on that front. Maybe he's just on an entirely different level from the rest of the sport and has created his own unique approach, or maybe he's got a very high-volatility style with a ton of possible break areas that's overperformed so far. Having an 'aura' and being a winner only helps in hindsight.

Props to him on getting better, but he's gone from a mid-tier FW talent to maybe a fringe top 15er in terms of what he actually does in the cage. Process matters so much more than results when predicting future fights, and Ortega's yet to show a clean, clear process. The Moicano fight's probably his best performance, and even that involved leaning on his chin/cardio way more than is realistically sustainable. Which is partly why I believe why he'll go on a slide when he does finally lose, since his chin taking a significant dent'd completely wreck his gameplan and there are a lot of heavy hitters at FW.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Yeah. I'm small on JJ, and it'll prettymuch be down to Shevchenko not putting up the same volume stats as JJ. I'm actually expecting Shevchenko to win the 'fight', but JJ to win a sketchy contentious split dec on doubling Shevchenko's volume. Shevchenko doesn't do a hell of a lot if she doesn't have a reason to.

Agreed. Shev is definitely not someone I'll ever take short odds on. This has the potential to be a terrible style matchup for her because she will be outvolumed and she's going to have to come forward for the fight. I think JJ by decision will be my play. and im someone who really hates JJ

 

[Card]

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@Gugabe, just stop, man. Enough with the Ortega talk.
You do realise a lot of people are luriking in these threads, a lot more than the people that actually post here? Sherdog's forums are the biggest community by far where we talk betting MMA.

So, we have some responsibility here. The more confident one talks, the more people believe him blindly, without thinking for themselves. That is how religions works. Calm down with that Ortega fading game. I understand what you said from the first time you posted, no need to defend it until the end of times.

There are a lot of people that just read what is written here and take the side of the guy that sounds very confident. And they like to hear what is in line with their pre existing opinions on the fights, they block everything else.

I am writing this because I was like these people before and was influenced by some confident lad to put my money on a fight I knew just enough to get myself in trouble. I like this community to be helpful to each other and to people outside too.

 

[Oblivian]

Tell me more about your reasons for Jedrzejczyk. I' genuinely wanna know.

High output of JJ makes this a close fight.

 

[GrantSorenson]

@Gugabe, just stop, man. Enough with the Ortega talk.
You do realise a lot of people are luriking in these threads, a lot more than the people that actually post here? Sherdog's forums are the biggest community by far where we talk betting MMA.

So, we have some responsibility here. The more confident one talks, the more people believe him blindly, without thinking for themselves. That is how religions works. Calm down with that Ortega fading game. I understand what you said from the first time you posted, no need to defend it until the end of times.

There are a lot of people that just read what is written here and take the side of the guy that sounds very confident. And they like to hear what is in line with their pre existing opinions on the fights, they block everything else.

I am writing this because I was like these people before and was influenced by some confident lad to put my money on a fight I knew just enough to get myself in trouble. I like this community to be helpful to each other and to people outside too.

I don't think we have any responsibility towards lurkers. I think this forum should be closed off or at least restricted to people with a certain amount of posts

 

[Paulsp]

In absolute shock at Ortega being “maybe a fringe top 15er in terms of what he actually does in the cage”

I’m on max 1u at -125. No one in the ufc yet has been able to last 15 minutes with Ortega let alone 25, so max is going to have to fight cautiously here but still aggressively. He’s a smart fighter so I’m sure realizes that. I think he’ll win a decision based on volume.

 

[ViolenceFight]

Betting on Ortega so far has been a profitable proposition. I was on him in his wins over Guida and Brandao, two wins that made me say 'Jesus, this guy's got a horrible gameplan and is the definition of -EV'. The way that Ortega gets subs is the concern. It's all relatively low-percentage stuff. It's like saying that Anthony Pettis has the best grappling game at LW since he has the most guard subs. There's a lot of context there, and a lot of room for error when you're doing things the way that Ortega does them. Sub props are my most profitable area by far, I know how to gauge guys' ground games. Ortega's is interesting, but functions a lot more like a brawler's chance than a clean, process-driven dangerous BJJ game.

I need clean performances to take him seriously. He doesn't produce them, and till he does I'm going to continue to fade him. Nothing in the tape's showing any deeper levels to his game, and I'm going to trust my judgement on that front. Maybe he's just on an entirely different level from the rest of the sport and has created his own unique approach, or maybe he's got a very high-volatility style with a ton of possible break areas that's overperformed so far. Having an 'aura' and being a winner only helps in hindsight.

Props to him on getting better, but he's gone from a mid-tier FW talent to maybe a fringe top 15er in terms of what he actually does in the cage. Process matters so much more than results when predicting future fights, and Ortega's yet to show a clean, clear process. The Moicano fight's probably his best performance, and even that involved leaning on his chin/cardio way more than is realistically sustainable. Which is partly why I believe why he'll go on a slide when he does finally lose, since his chin taking a significant dent'd completely wreck his gameplan and there are a lot of heavy hitters at FW.

Dude, when Ortega beats Holloway I’m gonna come back & ask you what happened? You’re so off-base about Ortega that it’s literally jaw-dropping.

 

[Gugabe]

I don't think we have any responsibility towards lurkers. I think this forum should be closed off or at least restricted to people with a certain amount of posts

Hell. Tracked records'd go a long way towards establishing who to take seriously, too. But it'd be nice to see less of the random troll accounts (RIP Farmer Joe).

Dude, when Ortega beats Holloway I’m gonna come back & ask you what happened? You’re so off-base about Ortega that it’s literally jaw-dropping.

Ortega may win, but I give it a 10% chance of random asspull finish. I'm willing to die on this hill of Ortega sucking if it costs me another 5u.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

This has the potential to be a terrible style matchup for her because she will be outvolumed and she's going to have to come forward for the fight.

With all my respect, Grant, it doesn't work that way. You can't outvolume Shevchenko that easy. If you aggressively put volume on her (and this is JJ's path if there is such), you'll enter her range a lot more and you'll give her opportunity to clinch with you. And she is looking for that opportunity all the time, you watched her fights. Joanna can't strike with impunity like vs all the other girls she fought, she doesn't own the clinch here. She was better and/or stronger in the clinch than I think everybody that fought her before in UFC. That gave her the freedom to play her outside game. Not the same with Shevchenko. And even without the clinch, you can't really play the volume game v hard hitting counter fighter. How many girls she fought in UFC actually threw something back when she is making her combos?

I don't think we have any responsibility towards lurkers. I think this forum should be closed off or at least restricted to people with a certain amount of posts

Yeah, but it isn't. And what about the people that reply here? They have to read tons of needless personal opinions that have nothing valuable. Come on, man, be serious.
You are responsible. There is not forum police, but you have to feel at least guilty if your flawed thinking (I'm not talking about you) contributed to somebody to lose his hard earned money on stupid bet. We could all just keep things to ourselves, we don't have to write it down for everybody to see. If you make something public, you try your best to be thoughfull and to iron out the kinks before you send it in the ether.

I know nobody else thinks my way, but don't give a shit.

 

[ViolenceFight]

@Gugabe
You obviously can't see or think straight when it comes to Ortega. You still think the guy has gotten lucky, when he's basically cleared out tons of top competitors at featherweight, & he's finished everyone.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@ViolenceFight and when Ortega finally loses (because he will at some point, how many fighters retire undefeated?) he will say "See I was right all the time, guys! I bet against him and won! You gave me so much shit and you were wrong, wroooong!!!" But of course the money buried against him will not be mentioned.

Edit: I think you quited the wrong guy

 

[Gugabe]

With all my respect, Grant, it doesn't work that way. You can't outvolume Shevchenko that easy. If you aggressively put volume on her (and this is JJ's path if there is such), you'll enter her range a lot more and you'll give her opportunity to clinch with you. And she is looking for that opportunity all the time, you watched her fights. Joanna can't strike with impunity like vs all the other girls she fought, she doesn't own the clinch here. She was better and/or stronger in the clinch than I think everybody that fought her before in UFC. That gave her the freedom to play her outside game. Not the same with Shevchenko. And even without the clinch, you can't really play the volume game v hard hitting counter fighter. How many girls she fought in UFC actually threw something back when she is making her combos?


Yeah, but it isn't. And what about the people that reply here? They have to read tons of needless personal opinions that have nothing valuable. Come on, man, be serious.
You are responsible. There is not forum police, but you have to feel at least guilty if your flawed thinking (I'm not talking about you) contributed to somebody to lose his hard earned money on stupid bet. We could all just keep things to ourselves, we don't have to write it down for everybody to see. If you make something public, you try your best to be thoughfull and to iron out the kinks before you send it in the ether.

I know nobody else thinks my way, but don't give a shit.

You've been here like 2-3 weeks, there's a bunch of people here with proven, tracked records that know what they're talking about.

You obviously can't see or think straight when it comes to Ortega. You still think the guy has gotten lucky, when he's basically cleared out tons of top competitors at featherweight, & he's finished everyone.

You're trying to analyze Ortega from a results-based angle, not a process-based one. Results come and go, process is forever.

@ViolenceFight and when Ortega finally loses (because he will at some point, how many fighters retire undefeated?) he will say "See I was right all the time, guys! I bet against him and won! You gave me so much shit and you were wrong, wroooong!!!" But of course the money buried against him will not be mentioned.

Edit: I think you quited the wrong guy

My record's in my signature. Can see everything I've put against Ortega so far, but 3 losses is no reason to abandon a fundamentally sound strategy of fading a guard BJJ player with no TDs, lackluster defense and a trend of leaning on his chin and cardio.

 

[ill800]

What is this "clear path" you say?

This has been discussed

Outvoluming to decision victory

 

[Oblivian]

I am writing this because I was like these people before and was influenced by some confident lad to put my money on a fight I knew just enough to get myself in trouble. I like this community to be helpful to each other and to people outside too.

Because his strong opinion on this fight is unpopular? How many times has this thread circle jerked on a favorite that has resulted in a loss? It was ok then because it was a popular opinion? Anyone following others blindly without forming their own opinion is taking a risk, and they should know that.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

You've been here like 2-3 weeks, there's a bunch of people here with proven, tracked records that know what they're talking about.

I didn't say you are not proven winner or anything like that. I know who you are. I've read this forum for years.

But you are arguing about that one fight like you are going to make thousands of badly set line. Calm down, it's just you blindly fading a guy and will profit a little (if he lose), if that. It's not something like you found gold. Did you?

Rocco Martin was underdog and there were slim chances for him to lose this (on paper) and I didn't bore the rest of the users talking about him like a maniac.

Guys, I have a small request? I am really thinking to add like another 2-3u (up to 5) on Bochniak. I've already put 5u on Shev and Gunni @106. For me I don't like to make another bet, it's too much units per event. But Bochniak really impressed me with that Zabit fight. Really liked what I saw there! Help me with that, watch video to see if I missed something. He is the fucking underdog and I think he is going to win, without the need of a miracle.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Because his strong opinion on this fight is unpopular? How many times has this thread circle jerked on a favorite that has resulted in a loss? It was ok then because it was a popular opinion? Anyone following others blindly without forming their own opinion is taking a risk, and they should know that.

Hey, Oblivian, I like you, but don't support him. He is not right here. The more people got his back the more he thinks he is right and he isn't. Think about it for a second, don't just go against the new guy.