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UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    All good. I cherry-picked, no doubt about it but I stand by my overall sentiment.
    I do think Holloway had to beat much higher competition and did so very well. But anyways, the fight here and now is what really matters.
    I mis-remembered and flipped the Ortega-Edgar short notice, my bad, sorry about that.
    FWIW, I would/will bet Moicano against Ortega if/when that fight happens again.

    I could've said: 'I think Max gets this done and gets it done somewhat easily.' But where's the fun in that?


    edit: words
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2018
  2. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Not sure about that but on JJ too because of the odds. Would not be surprised in the least if she is WMMAKO'd though.
     
  3. t6p Brown Belt

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    Fair enough. Like I said, I understand why a lot of people are going to bet Max at this price.

    But, personally, I'm higher on Ortega than most. He's not going to wilt after 2 rounds like the last few guys that Holloway has fought. He's shown a great chin and excellent cardio. He's not going to back down from Max's pressure. Max has no problem exchanging with guys in the pocket and I feel Ortega's striking is not only improving rapidly, but he's also heavy handed. There's also a notion that Ortega is losing most of his fights until he wins, which is simply not true, at least not post-Brandao.

    I'm high on Moicano too and my bet on the fight if there's ever a rematch would depend on odds, but the way Ortega beat him was extremely impressive IMO.

    I'm at 2.5u on Ortega ML at +120. I'll be looking to possibly add to his NSC line as well since I think the chances of Max finishing are low.
     
  4. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    And at 3.5U vs 2.5U we're both being reasonable. Betting aside, hopefully Max has his shit together and its a good fight.
     
  5. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    If I could rely on Max's health, he's a -400 in this spot for me. Ortega's made a habit of losing every fight he's been in until he fishes a finish out of nowhere. Swanson was completely teeing off on him. Even Edgar had like tripled his strikes landed when Ortega landed the elbow.

    By this time 2020, we'll look back on Ortega as the second coming of Jason Knight after his chin slips a bit and he starts getting punished for terrible gameplanning and fight IQ.
     
  6. theTKDguy Silver Belt

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    Max ain't finishing ortega, i'm 99% sure. Ortega by sub is a nice prop
     
  7. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Holloway TKO4 by brutal, extended combo to the body Pettis-style, IMO. Ortega won't be able to gas Holloway out, and will just start absorbing more and more shots.
     
  8. burge13 Purple Belt

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    -400 is too far but I agree with Max being a bigger favourite than odds show. I'd say -200 if we could rely on his health.
     
  9. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    Would also be on Moicano if they rematched. Ortega on one of the luckiest streaks ever imo.
     
  10. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Y’all remember when Moicano was dismantling T-City and got ended by the guillotine one trick?

    That’s the biggest reason I’m afraid to fade this fucker he’s always pulling some bullshit out in the end

    Like a more successful Darren Elkins
     
  11. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I'd happily take Edgar or Moicano in a rematch at evens against Ortega.
     
  12. t6p Brown Belt

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    [​IMG]

    19-19 on all three judges scorecards headed to the 3rd, which was another very close round before the guillotine. Not exactly a dismantling IMO.

    While we're on the subject, the Guida fight was 19-19, 19-19, 20-18 (for Guida) headed to the third and Ortega was easily having his best round of the fight before the knee. He would have won a majority decision if it went to the cards.

    There's also no way Cub gets out of that choke at the end of the first if the round didn't end and he put him away in the second. He was the first person ever to finish Edgar and he did it in round 1.

    This idea that he's somehow getting lucky in every fight is way overblown and frankly not true. He's proven himself to be one of the most dangerous and opportunistic finishers both standing and on the ground in the UFC and now he has 5 rounds to get it done.
     
  13. conmemay Boxer-Puncher

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    Ortega's striking is pretty underrated by alot of people. He puts an insane amount of pressure on his opponents. He was breaking down both Cub Swanson and Moicano and was on his way to winning the decision had he not finished them. That said, Holloway has really good footwork, crazy stamina and tough as nail himself. If Max comes in healthy, I say he outboxes Ortega all night. Then again, the guy is too tough for his own good and gets into wild brawls for no reason. If he does that against Ortega, it will end up bad for Holloway. If he is careful and fight a discipline fight, he can probably comfortably outbox Ortega for 5 rounds.
     
  14. GrantSorenson Blue Belt

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    Ortega is a blind spot for a lot of old school MMA gamblers and they will continue to lose money betting against him.
     
  15. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    No I don't. And you should just rewatch the fight if that's how you remember it.
    It was 19-19 on all scorecards and the reason Moicano shot that takedown was because Ortegas pressure was wearing on him and his face was busted up

    I might bet Moicano in a rematch, tha's a close one.
    In a rematch with Edgar or Swanson on the other hand I would bet 5u on Ortega if I got him at even money without hesitating
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2018
  16. Paulsp Black Belt

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    Ortega’s always losing until he wins is a myth
     
  17. t6p Brown Belt

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    Whatever the reason, it seems like a lot of people can't look at him objectively. Whether that's because he's cost them money or they're just repeating the common misconceptions about how his fights have played out, I don't know.

    Based on some of the comments in here, it's clear people aren't rewatching fights before posting. And comparisons to Jason Knight and Darren Elkins, I mean I'm not even sure what to say...
     
  18. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    If you don't see the obvious improvements in Ortegas striking from fight to fight you're just not wanting to see it. What I'm most impressed by is how extremely relaxed and aware in the cage, always keeps his eyes locked on his opponent even in combination exchanges in the pocket, great eyes (not just how they look). That combined with his ridiculous chin and that he's now starting to show some power in his hands too makes him a handful for anyone. I think he will become a really good defensive fighter aswell in a couple of years. He's clearly working on his fundamentals, got a decent shoulder roll, just haven't been striking long enough for it to really show yet
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2018
  19. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    That's why people (uneducated in betting) will continue throwing money against him. I lost badly betting on Moicano to beat him. In his next fights I bet on him, my ego made me research him much more deeper and I saw how talanted and sneaky this motherfucker is. I think I know him enough to NOT bet against him, unless we are talking seriously big odds. In his title fight I'll just sit back and watch.
     
  20. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Ortega finishes Max in the first round. Book it.
     

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