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UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    ”We’re going to make it, man. No ‘knock on wood’ or anything like that,” Holloway told ESPN. “I’m blessed. Things have been unfortunate this year, but I’m in a good place right now. I can’t put into words the energy we have, everything is great. I can’t wait for fight week. It’s been way too long.”
    Holloway has yet to specify what really happened to him in July. The most he could say about it was that it was connected to his diet.
    ”We’ve got an ongoing investigation, so I’ve been told not to comment on everything yet,” he said. “The UFC and Toronto commission has my medicals and said we’re good to go, so I ain’t worried about it. People are going to ask and be concerned, and I love people for that.
    ”That fight week in July, something went wrong after my first meal about eight days out. We gave it a couple days, but it just got worse. I hadn’t even started cutting weight. I was actually eating 2,500 calories a day. My kidneys showed it wasn’t related to weight cutting -- and if it was, I’m pretty sure the UFC would restrict me. And the UFC doctor said my scans showed it wasn’t a concussion.
    ”My team actually did a [toxicology] screen and, hey, Vegas is a crazy place. That’s all I can really say about it right now.”


    So, what, some sort of food poisoning? Who knows. But if it really doesn't have anything to do with his brain I'm loving my bet even more now.



    edit: source https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/11...o-make-it-brian-ortega-featherweight-mma-news
     
  2. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Really seems to me he is indicating he was drugged
     
  3. Larthus Orange Belt

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    @raketmannen

    It was definitely not a 19-19 fight.

    Ortega was getting outstruck 109 - 65 & losing in takedowns:

    - 35 to 15 round 1 (Moicano had 46% sig strikes, Ortega 29%)

    - 36 to 19 round 2 (Moicano 40% sig strikes + 1 takedown, Ortega 31% sig strikes 0 takedowns)

    - 20 to 15 round 3 (44% sig strikes Moicano + 1 takedown, 28% Ortega, 0 takedowns)



    Getting outstruck every round + losing in takedowns does not equal a 19-19 fight regardless of what those scorecards say. He was absolutely going to lose a 3 rd decision. The narrative of “he’s losing until he wins” is exaggerated but he was absolutely losing this fight handily.
     
  4. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Are you dumb or what? It was definently a 19-19 fight and the most even round according to the stats was the third, so why wouldn't he win that one? There was a clear momentum shift going on before Moicano shot for that TD on top of the even stats.
    Those numbers don't mean jack shit anyways. 1 clean strike can do so much more damage than 10 weak strikes, and that's what you should be focusing on when judging a fight. Trying to prove your point using only fightmetrics is beyond stupid
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
  5. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Lmao. Okay. Did you watch the fight or just reference the 19-19 scorecard? Moicano was landing clean. Ortega has a good chin but he was getting hit.

    Please link me a fight where a fighter won a 3 round decision while getting outstruck by a minimum of 44 & losing on takedowns. I’ll wait
     
  6. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    You go ahead and wait, no point in talking with someone who dosen't understand how MMA is scored

    The people scoring the actual fights aren't reading any fightmetric numbers to determine who is winning, neither should you

    Edit. oh I found one, http://www.espn.com/mma/fight/statistics/_/fightId/243737
    Joanna outstruck Rose 160-108, yet lost 49-46, you didn't have to wait that long. You happy?
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
  7. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Nice attempt but the data doesn’t support your argument. If you look at it (and the fight itself) it’s clear rose won.

    Joanna’s numbers are heavily inflated by her leg kicks. She was outstruck to the head by 21 AND I said find me one where a fighter was behind two takedowns as well. Rose landed a takedown, Joanna didn’t.

    Stats breakdown for Joanna -
    44% Head strikes
    37% leg strikes

    Stats breakdown for Moicano -
    83% Head strikes
    9% leg strikes

    Notice a difference?

    Ortega got outstruck 91-49 to the head (109-65 total) AND was BEHIND two takedowns. He was losing that fight, no question.
     
  8. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Luckily for us what you said means nothing since you obviously are wrong. If MMA was scored like you think it is we wouldn't need judges, just watch fightmetric after to determine who won.
    Goodbye you're going on the ignore list
     
  9. Larthus Orange Belt

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    So.. if someone is getting completely outstruck and are behind on takedowns they should win because of why exactly?
     
  10. Larthus Orange Belt

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    You literally cannot make an argument for a fighter who is so deep in the hole on significant strikes and behind on takedowns. That makes absolutely no sense. You say I can’t use data to make an argument but you can’t find one example proving me wrong with the parameters I’m giving you

    Again, if you can provide me ONE example of someone who won a fight by decision after getting outstruck by at least 44 (NOT just inflated by leg kicks that are doing nothing) and was BEHIND by two takedowns I will paypal you $200 @raketmannen
     
  11. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Already in on max at -135 he’s had more than enough time to get healthy. Ortega is dangerous but I don’t think he finishes max or outworks him. I’m thinking max by late tko stoppage
     
  12. t6p Brown Belt

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    I'm not interested in debating how relevant Fightmetric stats are to scoring a fight. But I will address your overall point, which is that Ortega was being dominated before the guillotine.

    Not only did all three official judges have the fight 19-19 (all had round 1 for Ortega and round 2 for Moicano) headed to the third, but a quick search of play-by-plays for UFC 214 tell the same story:

    https://mmajunkie.com/2017/07/ufc-214-play-by-play-live-results-630-p-m-et

    http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-214-Cormier-vs-Jones-2-PlaybyPlay-Results-RoundbyRound-Scoring-125339

    Two of the three Sherdog staff members scoring the fight gave Ortega the first round and MMAJunkie actually scored both of the first two rounds for Ortega.

    Bottom line, this was an extremely close fight that could have gone either way had it made it to decision.
     
  13. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Corey Anderson vs Shogun, 50 more strikes and 4 TDs to none, yet still lost.

    http://www.fightmetric.com/fight-details/8ec7d82619bfb564
     
  14. Larthus Orange Belt

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    MMAJunkie also scored Barao > Sterling for the first two rounds as well that same card.

    Domination wasn’t the best word, but I genuinely do not think he would’ve won that decision
     
  15. Larthus Orange Belt

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  16. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Haha don't worry about it. Stats can be useful but can also be misleading
     
  17. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Maybe I’m crazy but I genuinely think Moicano was winning. Not sure how it snowballed into this debate though.
     
  18. t6p Brown Belt

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    I can see an argument for Moicano winning the first two rounds (I had it 19-19 myself). But, the third round was super close before the finish and there was still 2 minutes left. Being that the judges all had it 19-19 it's impossible to say who would've won the decision because we only got to see 3 minutes of the third. Who knows how the rest would have played out.
     
  19. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    The Moicano fight was also 18 months ago or something like that. Ortega has improved leaps and bounds from that fight and is extremely dangerous. I also think Max is compromised in some way either mentally or physically and its T-City's time. He's too opportunistic to lose this fight but I do think the play is a live bet after R1 though I have him in multiple football parlays and will have to hedge back to Max a bit just to not be an asshole about it if they hit.

    After re-watching the Moicano fight, I actually may not even hedge.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
  20. piglord Black Belt

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