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UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Judges opinion is king. Does not matter what you say. If your guy lost on the scorecards, but you don't think so, you'll still lose your bet. End of story.

    This is a betting thread, right? So discussing who lost or won some decisions (or rounds), but the judges saw it differently should not be our priority. If your guy win with a robbery decision your bet still cashes. We, the bettors must watch the fights through the eyes of the judges more than out own. If a style of fighting is preffered from the judges perspective, we have to respect that. Judges opinion is the most and really - the only important here. When a fight goes the distance they decide if you will lose money or you'll win.

    Seeing the fight from the eyes of the judges and understand how they score the fights is paramount.
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2018
  2. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    I might have to play Ortega and his dreamy eyes here

    I did not like Max’s last incident and how terrible his weight cuts are. I think he needs to move up
     
  3. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Piglord, you are a great writer man. I disagree with your assessment of this fight in a few spots but holy shit man, you should be writing professionally with your analysis and technique. Cheers!
     
  4. piglord Black Belt

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    thanks man i am actually a professional copywriter it's legitimately the worst job in the world. i haven't been taking any assignments this year as i've been hot with the gambling, hopefully that continues.
     
  5. MrShady Orange Belt

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    I'm going heavy on Ortega. Don't think odds will get any better and if anything, I believe Holloway is more vulnerable to being stopped (weight cut, accumulated damage) rather than Ortega. Holloway has beaten all opponents by technical skill yes but mainly his mental toughness, cardio and heart. Ortega will be the first opponent that Holloway cannot overwhelm. Thoughts ?
     
  6. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Im passing on Ortega vs Holloway. There are a lot of questions for me and is just one of those fights that I just want to watch relaxed and enjoy.. because it is going to be a great one.

    Im liking a few other bets but have yet to make my homework on them:

    Burns +132 vs OAM
    Theodorou +122 vs Anders
    Bochniak +131... IDK anything about his opponent but Kyle is game and fights for your money
    Santos -160ish vs Manuwa... I think he runs through old Jimi

    Brazilian Cowboy -107 vs Gunnar. Already locked 1.07u on him. Bigger, super aggressive, durable, stronger... less technical tho.
     
  7. MrShady Orange Belt

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    Theodorou though? Anyone but him lol. Anders actually impressed me more in his loss than any of Theodorou's wins...like seriously
     
  8. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Continuing to fade santos chin against power guys. Hasn’t worked out so well for me.

    Jimi hits like a truck so I almost have to play him at these odds.
     
  9. Broe. Brown Belt

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    But Theodorou is a gamer and Anders doesn't seem to know how to approach figbts very well. I wouldnt be surprised if Theodorou manages to keep Anders' off of him with his weak spamming leg kicks and win a boring decision.
     
  10. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    OK, lets do this!

    My initial thoughts WITHOUT freshly watched tape of both fighters of each bouts. I'm going to share my gold (sarcasm) with you, lovely lads.

    Holloway v Orgeta screams PASS to me. Just from a betting perspective I would like to bet Ortega (IF he was bigger dog), dude is insanely durable and he is in the fight until the final horn. You bet against him you pray every God you can think of and cross your fingers every god damn second is passed he won't do something absolutely unexpected and amazing to finish the fight and take your money away, because you didn't saw the same exact thing happening time after time before and still was dumb enough to bet against him.

    Valentina is gonna make light work out of Jedrzejczyk yet again. Reasons:
    Too big, too fast, too strong. Shevchenko is going to throw her around like a kid in the clinch. Her core strength is insane, man. To have that control of opponents in the clinch and even @135, you gotta be VERY strong. Core strength is directly connected to punching power and to the ability to punch and kick a lot without tiring yourself out too easily.
    Valentina backers worring she might lose close decision?
    -> She is not losing a close decision, no way. She is absolutely gonna win with a wide decision at the minimum. She was much more active in her first fight @ 125 vs that brasilian bum. She is much more athletic than Joanna. I love Jedrzejczyk, but she is outgunned here big time. I know Val was in close decisions more than once @ 135, but she was not cutting hardly any weight there, walking around 137? Especially in her first 2-3 fights in UFC she was very small, I noticed her putting some good size when she fought Pena and Nunes in the rematch but still was smaller.

    She won't let the judges rob her of another win, I'm telling you. She is gonna be active and she will score a lot. Not with her striking but mainly in the clinch. Joanna have no hopes in the clinch with her, just too underpowered. The only thing I can think of Joanna possibly doing to better her chances is to change her style enterely. She has to use a lot, a lot of kicks and frustrating in and out movements and long weapons like the jab, a ton of feints too. She need to be way out of clinch range and never come close. 25 mins to never let Val grab her in a collar tie is so unlikely that it's insane. This whole thing about the style change is in the realm of dreams. It's never going to happen. Even if it happens, she still has negligible chances of actually winning like that. Jerdzejczyk is too slow to go in and out, her thing is cardio, she is not dynamic type of fighter - too slow footed.

    Gunnar Nelson is going to submit Cowboycerroliveira :D They are small chances brasilian cowboy finds his chin, but would not bet on that. Nelson is more dynamic Cerrone with even more potent grappling and better wrestling. And did you saw how he looks now? God damn.

    I have mixed feelings about Jimi Manuwa. I like him as an underdog a lot. The odds on that fight were out for long time and I was mildly shocked he is the underdog. But I don't know about him... Just too lackadaisical sometimes. But he is bigger and equal if not better athlete than Santos. He has serviceable wrestling, can take Santos at will I think. I don't know about that fight, have to watch tape to refresh my memories. But picking Jimi for sure, I don't know about betting him, tho.

    Eryk Anders v Elias Theodorou. I don't know how anybody can pick Anders here. Let alone bet him! But have to say - I am not good at picking his fights... As usual when newcommer debuting I didn't watch much on his local scene or didn't put any weight in his wins there. So I picked and bet on Natal. Well, bad for me. But didn't learn my lesson, bet on him next 2 times v Maluko (nice) and lost fuck ton of money v Machida. When he lost to Machida I had finally pretty good idea what he is capable of and what type of opponent he can beat. Was shocked he was so big favourite vs that scary faced guy and the fight was pretty much what I expected. Was absolutely no surprised he lost to Santos and was not surprised in the method that this happen.
    Pretty boy Theodorou made Tavares work for his win. He is a winner, I can't say it better, he just finds a way to win. Boring, ugly ass fighting style but he is a winner. His hands are trash, but Eryk is not Mayweather either. Eryk just can't strike, his posture is weird, don't have good footwork, he gets tired if he is forced to do more than he likes. And he usually do very little. 3 rounds of kicks and some wrestling from Theodorou is going to be suffcient enough to win. He has wins over people a lot better than Eryk.
    Sorry, Elias haters.

    Devin Clark is going to get absolutely smashed by Rakic. I like all of Rakic's game he is my boy @LHW, him with Dom Reyes are the best young prospects of this division IMO.
     
  11. grappler4200 Yellow Belt

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    Really interested on the reasoning people like jj even with the come back. Similar game but shev is just bigger, stronger and better at everything. Not to mention if she ends up on top of jj she's in a heap of trouble. What tool can jj bring into the octagon that she didn't have in the 3 kb matches she lost against her. I like shev even with the juice.
     
  12. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    I had Moicano up 2-0 in the fight when I watched it live, I remember one round being easy Moiciano and the other was really close. I have Ortega around -165 this fight assuming a healthy Max. Both fighters are huge for this weight class and Ortega is incredibly tricky (he seems to pull out unexpected things that take opponents off guard).

    My largest concerns with Max is how healthy he looks after his cut and how his hand eye looks after some of his last fights with Aldo. Given his size, I don’t think he can stay in featherweight too much longer.
     
  13. Joedaman55 Don't be homeless

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    That’s how I see it, I can’t see a path for JJ. Valentina fought a near draw against Nunes and Nunes starches everyone not named Cyborg.
     
  14. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
  15. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    Great main event, but I won't be betting it. It's hard enough predicting fights between two exceptionally skilled, dangerous fighters like Holloway and Ortega as it is, let alone with the two additional variables of

    1. Ortega's significant improvement from one fight to another.
    2. Holloway's health concerns.

    Even if one reads the fight perfectly otherwise, it can be obliterated by either of those two factors, which are unknown to anyone that isn't close to the fighter in question.

    As for JJ, she is still overrated and will probably lose, but I'm not going against her at those odds.
     
  16. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Holloway's health's the main question. I'm not sure Ortega's showing much significant improvement. Edgar was outstriking him till he got caught with the elbow. Same Holloway that beat Aldo'd be a -3/400 favorite against Ortega in my book.
     
  17. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Ortega hits a lot harder than Holloway does. I remember when I watched Holloway v Lamas and honestly was not too impressed by his performance (I'll get shit for this). Lamas after that had two wins v fighters with somewhat similar build with Holloway, for sure not as agile and fast as him, bit with underwheliming power I would say. Next fight with Emmett he was obliterated. I would not put Ortega's power with Emmett's and Ortega does not put 110% in his punches like Emmett does, but Ortega is heavy handed and he is BIG for this weightclass. Fucking big mexican head, mexican heart and mexican cardio. Wish Holloway luck beating that guy, he'll need it.

    Edgar was hitting mainly his forearms, gloves and elbows. Ortega didn't took more than a couple of clean punches.
     
  18. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    It's the same bullshit with Khabib's striking. The fact that he looks bad does not mean shit if you cannot hit him. MJ "stunning" him was Rogan going nuts and people repeating what he says, but it's not true at all. MJ hit nothing but Khabib's guard.
     
  19. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I'd give Lamas a decent chance at beating Ortega since he'd be able to tee freely off on him with his power and Ortega'd absorb a ton of legkicks. Holloway's not hugely powerful, but he's a level of striking technique that's just tiers above anything Ortega's shown. Edgar was landing pretty easily on Ortega, clean for most of it. Not like Ortega was landing until the elbow.

    I honestly believe Ortega isn't even top 10 by 2020. He's a stylistic abomination who's been barely scraping out wins and who'll likely go on a deep loss streak as soon as the magic stops coming.
     
  20. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Gugabe, I hope you don't lose a ton of money betting against Ortega in his title fight because you talk very confidently... Clearly you don't like the guy's fighting style. I was with you all the way and lost god knows how much on Moicano to take him to school and I ended up crying like a bitch. No more underestimating that fucker. Rewatch that Edgar fight without bias and come to me again. Thanks.

    I'm out for an hour and I'll be back then. :)
     

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