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UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Cockadoodle Blue Belt

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    I have seen quite a few (including myself) who have max to finish in the 4th and 5th. The bless-express is rolling on!
     
  2. thewiggo Yellow Belt

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    Nope youre not lol..
     
  3. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm on Max as well as the Fight does not go the distance prop. Definitely feel Max has a higher probability of getting the finish than people give credit for, but the ITD is attractive as it covers Ortega too.
     
  4. EndlessCritic Steel Belt

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    Ortega by sub +200... how is this not the play? No possible way he wins by tko or decision.
     
  5. Dooze Purple Belt

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    Ortega has KO power but I'm really liking the odds on Holloway. I think he'll be too slick on the feet and clearly outstrike Ortega.

    I don't think Ortega will have the wrestling chops to take Holloway down so unless Max takes him down or Ortega pulls guard/flying submissions (certainly possible) I think a lot of this fight takes place on the feet and outside of his power, I don't think Brian has much for Hollofway there.

    Max will throw at a significantly higher volume and despite Ortegas finishes, he's had trouble on the feet with lesser strikers. Guida was tagging him repeatedly and won the 1st round of their fight and arguably the 2nd. Swanson won the 1st round primarily through his work on the feet. He was losing on the feet to Brandao too and I think 2 rounds down to him.

    Realistically, Holloway is levels above in terms of his striking in comparison to Guida and Brandao. Holloways footwork, his angles and his pure output is miles higher than both of those guys. Similarly, Holloway gets better as the fight goes on. His cardio is second to none so he really doesn't have to pace himself, he can come out and throw high volume and as the fight goes on, his output and pace increases.

    If you're going to beat Max, realistically it's going to be in the first round or two before he has chance to get into his rhythm and drown you. Outside of the Edgar and De La Torre fights I think I'm correct in saying that Ortega has lost every 1st round in his UFC fights. I may be wrong, but I think in those UFC fights he's been losing or at best drawing until he's got the finish. I don't recall any where he's been a round or two up and then got the finish to cap off a dominant win, it's generally been come from behind.

    He's got great killer instinct, specifically in his submission game but other than that I don't really see anywhere else he has a significant edge over Holloway.

    If I was going to bet Ortega, I'd only really look at him ITD if the odds are decent. I think there's very little chance that he can win a decision against Holloway. I've not looked into the difference in odds between Ortega (now as a favourite!) and fight DNGTD, but if they're fairly similar I'd feel a lot more comfortable betting DNGTD if I wanted to back Ortega given it's most likely how he wins and it adds the cover of Holloway finishing Ortega which I think is certainly possible.

    I could definitely have a bad read of this fight, but if it stays on the feet like I expect it to, Holloway should have a significant advantage in terms of skill and output. Ortega can certainly finish a fight but he gets hit a lot too and I expect Holloway to piece him up and win quite comfortably.

    Like I said, could be a bad read but I don't understand the line at all and I'm looking at putting a big (for me) bet on Holloway moneyline as a slight underdog.
     
  6. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Max light a half pound (144.5); once they unhooked the IV drip, the dialysis machine and took out the breathing tube he made weight easily.
    Ortega light too (144.75); Brian was overweight until he was suddenly underweight, but turns out he was actually underweight the whole time. And even when they look right at the scale, still no one believes it and he remains forever overweight.
    Moicano heavy (146); overall confidence decrease because it won't be a title fight now. Still pumped to see three guys fight in the Octagon at once though!
     
  7. null Gold Belt

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    Ceremonial weigh-in & face-offs:

     
  8. ViolenceFight Blue Belt

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    Frankie Edgar was never KO’d or TKO’d in his entire career until Ortega did it. How could you not have known or heard that fact already? It’s been stated dozens of times by every analyst under the sun.
     
  9. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Edgar got a lot of wear and tear of him, has been rocked so many times. I think we will see him get KO'd a lot more in the future, hell I think KZ would've slept him if that fight happened


    I'm so fucking hyped for tomorrows main event
     
  10. DevilsPt2 Minion

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    Why cant OAM just strike with Burns, defend his TDs, wear him out and maybe look to control him later into the fight? OAM seems like a smart man, he's not a scrub on the ground(I know Burns is next level) and it seems he can shutdown Burns if he doesnt give him space or can stay outside of his guard. I know Burns subbed Oliveira n rd 3 but he finds a way to lose fights he shouldnt. Burns striking doesnt really concern me, he has power but that about it. OAM looked good striking with Dober and Hernandez is just a freak of nature, have no action on this fight but I'm close to betting OAM.

    I dont think I've seen anyone here advocate for OAM anyone put a bet on him?
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2018
  11. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Fight doesn't go distance was appealing to me, both guys are finishers.
     
  12. AIGOD Banned Banned

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    Fellow gamblers and degens. I think i got it right this time: hakeem,katlyn,olivier...3x1. Going to put a hundo down. Thoughts?
     
  13. clemente Blue Belt

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    wtf Max is underdog on Betfair??? What do I now know?? I just don't understand how Ortega can win here
     
  14. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    If you bet points handicap on Dimes and your guy wins ITD, does it cash or void?
     
  15. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Might have to take stabs at these big dogs Out of principle

    Clark +465
    Nelson +400
     
  16. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Cashes
     
  17. clemente Blue Belt

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    wtf why was there no ranking number on Santos? No way hes unranked?
     
  18. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    Thanks, boo
     
  19. turbozed Red Belt

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    JJ got dropped by Karolina and also by Gadelha (by a jab) so it's not just Rose doing it.

    I think people thinking JJ is going to put volume on Schevchenko are going to be surprised by early exchanges. Valentina moves to the inside of the jab, changes angle and then blitzes forward with some pretty powerful looking shots. These are the same shots that Nunes was wary of and caught Holly flush. Holly has a helluva chin though. I can see Schevchenko dropping JJ early with the same shots.

    On the flipside, JJ is an accumulation puncher and uses her footwork to keep gals off her. I don't think Valentina is going to be put off by anything JJ throws unless JJ has developed power all of a sudden, or if she jumps into a clean right hand. JJ isn't the type to throw simultaneous counters though, so the odds of this are very unlikely.
     
  20. turbozed Red Belt

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    Chook's best attribute is to act busy and get judges to think she's winning the fight. This is a pretty good skill in a division where almost every fight goes to a decision and there aren't very many moments where damage and takedowns happen. This is another reason why, if Eye can land just a TD in a round, she wins that round. In this matchup, Chook's best asset is her footwork, although Davis was backing her up and landing. Eye can do the same and finish off with a clinch/td against the cage and, at that range, she's the stronger and more capable wrestler/clincher.

    This should be another close/split decision type fight so getting almost 2-1 on Eye seems like a good deal. The only problem is that Eye can't be trusted to use her best weapons. Last fight against JRC she won but she could've dominated by taking JRC down but refused to do so. If Eye had some success like Davis did, she might choose not to grapple at all, and lose another close decision.
     

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