Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.
Is laprise materia for parlay? or too risky? Lima is garbage, but maybe is motivated for today?
After I saw Elias' last fight I gave up on him as a bet and didn't researched his fight here more, but recent talk in the forum about it made me look at more footage. I think Eryk, despite his clunky style, has good chances here and I would even say is a slight favourite to win it in my eyes. His hips are incredibly strong so taking him down is very hard, unless you catch him overextending and he rarely does it, or you gotta be at least a decent wrestler/grappler. I see him trying to counter almost every kick opponents try at him. So Elias' favourite weapon is maybe going to get him in trouble. If he was some very good grappler I would be worried for Eryk because he gives up his back standing up, but Elias has one submission in his whole career.
Additional bad news for Elias is that Eryk trained a little with Duane @ Elevation and with some Factory X guys. Meanwhile Elias is with TriStar and we know this is almost as bad as Winkeljohn these days. My personal opinion of course.
Anyone able to sell me on the following underdogs?
- Dhiego Lima
- Matthew Lopez
- Kyle Bochniak
- Kyle Nelson
I don't know much about the opponent's of Bochniak and Lopez but remember thinking they were decent fighters when I've seen them both.
Nelson I don't know at all but rate Ferreira so could be a lambs to the slaughter fight.
Lima I was really confused at the odds given there are so few people I think Laprise should be this heavy a favourite against and I thought it was initially the wrong way round, but then I realised I was confusing Dhiego Lima with Douglas Lima.
Anyway, any of them solid underdog bets? I'm assuming Lopez and Bochniak could be but don't know their opponents, these other two guys I mentioned I don't know them at all.
Lopez is the only dog that I'm playing out of those four, but I have him around +200. I'm not sure I'd play him now.
Bochniak will fight till the end for you money, and is a very smart fighter, he is coming always with a perfect plan for a specific fight but i dont think that He have the technical tools to win and Dawodu (I"m putting money in Dawodu) is a young athletic fighter with a lot of tools to win.
Lopez is a very interesting fighter and I personally like to win this fight Katona, but I'm putting money in Lopez because I think that he will be coming strong tonight and He have the power, experience and technic to win, let hope for the cardio.
The only thing he needs is to commit to his punches and he has that on point. Fact that he is a good athlete with well rounded game and has cardio are bonuses.
Lopez's only disadvantage in this fight is his cardio and that's more because he pushes a hard pace. Katona doesnt really push a hard pace anyways. He likes his distance, fighting kinda like Machida, picking his shot from the outside. Lopez is going to be in his face and we dont know how well Katona will re-act to that. Lopez is a good striker himself and probably a better wrestler. I feel there's still unknown with Katona for him to be this kind of a favorite. This fight should be 50/50.
I feel Katona can be a bit more technical fighting on the outside and he's a bit of a threat in scrambles. Lopez was one of my earliest plays though, I so I definitely felt +200 was worth jumping on. I'm hoping he paces himself enough.
I have seen several people refer to Bochniak as "very smart", and I can't for the life of me figure out why. Is there a specific reason? I've never seen him doing anything intelligent in his fights, and in fact, have seen him do several dumb things. (Throw naked leg kicks in round 3 against Kennedy, when down 2 rounds, and with Kennedy's takedowns being the biggest weapon)
Anywho, having now watched extensive tape on both fighters, I see Bochniak getting beaten up badly in the stand-up.
He had a very smart gameplan for how to beat Brandon Davis and stuck to it. Then came into the Zabit fight and fought a completely different way that was nessecary for him to have any chance of winning. I guess that's what people talk about
Bochniak is goin to fight Dawodu like he fought Davis but he wont get any takedowns, Dawodu isnt goin to chase him around the cage and Bochniak is goin to get whacked everytime he comes into range before he can bounce out of it. If it's close pretty sure Dawodu gets the nod but I dont even think it will be close. The Zabit fight has people overestimating Bochniak imo. He should be 1-4 in the UFC.
Lopez aggression will be his downfall. Hes prob going to get takedowns but because hes so active looking for the sub/gnp he gives his opponents ample opportunity to get backup, this is esp bad because Lopez doesnt have nfinte takedowns. On the feet Katona should outpont him. I only played the over on ths fight though, I dont trust either fighter but could see Lopez finishing in rd1 or Katona finishing in rd3.
Can you guys still see the "reduced" tab in the mma betting section on 5 dimes?
Dawodu's line definitely sticks out to me. Clear standing advantage, a bit of durability problem but Bochniak not known for his power. Seems like a clear stand up win for Dawodu probably a decision. Definitely on the circlejerk with Hakeem
Edit: nvm my dumbass was looking at the ufc.com website and their odds are flipped. Lines about right imo, Bochniak can grind one out or hurt Hakeem and get a sub or tko. Probably gonna stay away.
Why is no one on Eye or Ansaroff
I've seen both Eye and Ansaroff backers in here. I'm on both of them, very small on Ansaroff though
I'm on Eye +180 and Ansaroff +3½ points.
I’m on Ansaroff. Should probably wait for lb, but she will lose the first and win he last, and then it’s a coin flip on who wins the second.
The fight pass stream is behind what is the best live stream for live betting??
Anders backers - Does his quick turnaround after his last fight give anyone pause? I know Elias isn't a big hitter but the way he collapsed a couple of times trying to get back to his corner just 7 weeks ago after taking a fair amount of punishment it feels a bit of a quick turnaround to be back in the cage.
Looking into it, Anders stepping into the fight got announced a week after his last fight. I can only imagine he got sanctioned as a replacement was due to his fight with Santos being in Brazil and the commission not being able to suspend him for medical reasons cos collapsing like that in between rounds he shouldn't have been in another fight until 2019, let alone signing on and training for another fight a week later.
UFC 231 PBP/Discussion: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-231-pbp-discussion.3876509/
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