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UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I'm going to happily continue to fade him, personally. It's like saying you can't bet against Lewis since he fluked out a series of fights. A 6 fight career isn't enough to say that Ortega has completely revolutionized the game. It's possible he's just a fairly lucky retard who's been edging out wins.
     
  2. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Yeah, dude, go bet against Lewis, very smart - he is the underdog in so many of these or it's a pick 'em. I understand fading him on a good +odds. How many times his opponent was decent underdog? Once - Hunt. Vs every single other opponent, but Hunt, you got picke 'em or favourite odds to fade Lewis and you'll get fucked in almost all of these becase the only recent fight you could won fading him was v DC and it was not worth it.

    Yeah, he fights like he don't know what to do, but he wins. If you don't understand how a fighter's game work, you just don't mess with betting on or against him/her. You don't fade somebody just because you think he gets lucky every time. Fade a fighter vs the right opponent for the right price. Don't just fade them blindly until they eventually lose. They can lose when it's -500 to bet against them. Do you have that much cash to put on a bet? No.

    Holloway is barely the favourite, but could get a lot more expensive if he shows good spirits and looks healthy in the media days before the fight. Everybody will forget about his problems and will bet on him. Odds could go down to -200 or even lower. Paying the juice to fade Ortega? OK, it's your money.

    Only time it's good to fade a fighter blindly is if he or she is consistently huge favourite and is some hyped fighter with no real skill but very flashy (so is beatable). We are talking if the opponents are in the +400 range every time. It's cheap to put little something and eventually you'll win. Just you gotta hope you'll get good odds every time to fade them. I know guys that were putting money against Ngannou in his every UFC fight until he eventually lost. It's not the best strategy but it's something.
     
  3. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    For anyone who’s assuming Halloway isn’t healthy what gives you that idea? He’s had more than enough time off and in his most recent interviews he seems fine and more than ready to go. From what I read his issues seemed to not have any relation with his weight cut. I just wonder if people are betting Ortega just bc they think max isn’t 100 percent.
     
  4. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    I was planning on betting Max in their first fight. Yeah he's seemed good in every interview I heard with him, but it's still a slight worry to me. I'm gonna go with Ortega now, not only because of Max issues, but Ortega has had much more time to improve while Max probably been out of training a lot this year. Broken foot so out for that, that horrible cut against Khabib, depression, he wasn't training for at least a month after UFC 226. Will come in with ring rust, he's never had a year off before, and he's a slow starter as it is.
    I also think Ortega has more room to improve overall, feels like he's less of a finished product than Max is.
     
  5. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    If you think schevchenko is going to bully Joanna around in the clinch you should go back and watch her fights with Andrade and Karolina.

    If you think Joanna isn’t going to be able to deal with schevs strength watch the Andrade fight

    You sound like you cap schev at -500 or better. I guess you are laying serious coin on her at -300
     
  6. MrShady Orange Belt

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    Never saw Ortega close to getting Tkoed/submitted....seems like Holloway's only path to victory is decision. And in 5 rounds, how can we not reasonably say Ortega will have his opportunities to either hurt Holloway (power advantage) or submit Holloway. We have evidence that Ortega has knocked out and submitted his opponents and all it took was ONE slip-up (Moicano, Edgar, Swanson). Holloway, despite his crazy win streak and striking advantages, has been shown to GIVE his opponents those opportunities, due to his recklessness or his general style of using volume to overwhelm opponents. None of them however were able to capitalize. I feel like Ortega will be that guy who capitalizes....because as I mentioned previously, he has SHOWN us this trait MULTIPLE times.
     
  7. ViolenceFight Blue Belt

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    I see many more paths to victory for Ortega than Holloway. I also think Ortega has a higher achievement ceiling, he's just a better physical athlete & has shown tons of growth. Ortega has rapidly improved his stand-up game, & he already has an absolutely stellar next-level ground-game. I think it's insane to bet against Ortega & people on here will regret it.
     
  8. MrShady Orange Belt

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    This is the first time Im actually flabbergasted at the amount of people discrediting Ortega and his chances. Legit 50/50 fight imo
     
  9. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    I can't believe people think Ortega is on Max's level. Max is going to land like 10x as many strikes, not get taken down, and has an iron chin. Maybe Ortega pulls another finish out of his ass but it's clearly <<< 50% proposition.
     
  10. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    On Manuwa at +140 and Max Blessed Holloway at -130.

    Obviously i'm worried about the headkicks of Santos but I think Jimi is the superior boxer and he hits hard as fuuuuck. I'm still haunted by the look on OSPs face when he got slept.

    I couldn't be happier with the price on Max. I dont care if hes brain damaged, I think his footwork, volume, cardio, and pressure plus his tdd and hand fighting are miles ahead of Ortegas enough to win him a 50-45 decision.
     
  11. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm going be on Max and JJ. No idea on the rest so far.
     
  12. grappler4200 Yellow Belt

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    Think Nunes might even be a good play against cyborg. Cyborg hasn't been impressive lately. But yeah I know it was awhile ago and know/mt≠mma, but I just don't see where jj skill set in a kb/mt fight is much different in a UFC fight. The extra dimension in mma is negligeble for jj,where I think if val could put her on the mat and own her if she isn't winning stand up. I watched some of the old footage of their matches and val was putting her down a lot in the clinch. With that being said it did look like it was more of a highlight video for shev so would like to find the full match.
     
  13. joenewbie Orange Belt

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    The question I have is how much did the losses to Rose take out of JJ? Yes she beat Tecia but that doesn't mean that the old JJ is back and she will go on another huge winning streak. I might make a small play on her but JJ is the underdog here and rightly so.
     
  14. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    I think Holloway is a vulnerable champion right now, he's coming back from these concussion issues and he's fighting an undefeated guy that finishes everyone. Ortega arguably has the most dangerous sub game in MMA and 25 minutes is plenty of time for him to catch you.

    Ortega, for what ever reason is constantly underestimated, he's been the underdog in his last 4 fights. I have good reasons to doubt Holloway, I have no reasons to doubt Ortega. Every time Ortega has stepped in there he's come out the winner

    Ortega has more ways to win this fight, he looks better every time you see him, he's dangerous everywhere
     
  15. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    They made her better. She had much better weight cuts for her last two fights.

    The old jj doesn’t need to come back and she doesn’t need to go on a big streak. She just needs to beat schevchenko and cash my +275 tickets.
     
  16. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    What is a 10plus year old muai Thai fight going to tell you?

    Joanna said she had been training for 2 years when they fought. Schevchenko has apparently been doing it most of her life

    I don’t know how anyone can place much stock on 3 Thai fights from over a decade ago

    And now schevchenko is apparently a grappling specialist and can just dominate Joanna in the clinch and on the ground

    Apparently She has superhuman strength as well. Much stronger than Andrade

    Crazy
     
  17. grappler4200 Yellow Belt

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    Just because they were old doesn't make them meaningless. Sure maybe some people are putting more meaning behind them than deserved, but you don't think shev improved in that time either? Has jj improved that much more than her? I just don't see it. And I'm not at all saying that shev is a grappling wizard, just that I have seen her at least add that dimension in when necessary. Jj hasn't
     
  18. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    Whole heartedly agree with all of this. Already have 3u on Max and will add unless he starts slurring his words while doing press next week.
     
  19. Ryan Kelly Blue Belt

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    I’d bet Max at -200 as long as he wasn’t showing signs of CTE.
     
  20. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    No one is going to talk about the odds? been out for like an hour now
     

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