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UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Omni1 Purple Belt

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    Think Katona is going to win. However -310 is too expensive to play right now. Same with Dawodu. Way too expensive @ -245. Bet Chookagian @ -145 though. Missed Rakic @ -400. Think Anders should be -170 not -215. Your thoughts on the current lines?
     
  2. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Flabbergasted though you may be, without tallying it up more people in here seem on Ortega than Max...

    There are a bunch of false narratives that seems to be running rampant and I'll admit I fell prey to it as well:

    -Losing Ortega: that he's losing until he wins has been adequately debunked itt already.
    -Iron chin Ortega: when have we seen him hit flush? I don't remember it.
    -Concussed Holloway: his doctor said he didn't have one and the TO commission and the UFC cleared him. Bisping is a world class troll and showed himself in that interview. People cry "CTE!" but we could just as easily say "Look at that Hawaiian being so Hawaiian."
    -Deathbed Holloway: his withdrawal from the previous Ortega fight was from some kind of food poisoning that he's not allowed to talk about yet due to an ongoing investigation (not a quote but his words), not the weight cut and not a concussion.

    I'm on Max because the odds tell me to side with the dominant champion that is a known entity.
     
  3. Omni1 Purple Belt

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    If I remember correctly Max's slurred speech was from the weight cut & he said that he did NOT suffer any huge blows to the head during his training camp. Is this correct?
     
  4. GrantSorenson Blue Belt

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    The argument for JJ is that she will throw higher volume and Shev has shown that she will be tentative and not go for it if it's not there ala Nunes. Shev will literally wait and wait and wait for counters. Meanwhile she could be taking kicks from JJ. In the clinch, JJ has handled herself vs Andrade who is pretty strong. The argument for JJ is that she can keep it standing and just throw higher volume and win a decision. Valentina doesn't have any urgency to her game. She relies on mistakes from her opponents. She needs her opponent to do something that gives her an opening. If JJ fights a very conservative fight with a big focus on kicks and staying away, then it forces Valentina to have to create something rather than wait for something to come to her. In that kind of fight, JJ can just use kicks from range with good movement, giving Valentina nothing to counter and winning the fight on points.

    I can actually see that happening.
     
  5. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    The debate on JJ-Sheva is a bit interesting.

    JJ is the easy side here, no? A former champ is a wide dog and the favourite is a boring counter-striker. I can actually quite easily see JJ outpointing Sheva widely. Her chin is a concern but Valentina is too tentative.
     
  6. GrantSorenson Blue Belt

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    Gugabe will bet against Ortega no matter what. If Ortega went up to 155 and beat Khabib/Ferguston/McGregor with subs, gugabe would still place a big bet on Kevin Lee to beat Ortega.

    Sorry gugabe, but you are biased against Ortega and never gave him any credit for wins. I remember you saying with confidence that Moicano and Edgar were more or less LOCKS against Ortega.

    Gugabe will continue to lose money betting against Ortega and actually think he is doing the right thing. You need to take a closer look at Ortega. He has the most feared ground game in the UFC right now. FIghters are terrified to get into a clinch with him. Look at Edgar. Even when he was hurt he wouldn't go near Ortega and tried to keep it at range.

    Ortega is sloppy offentively because he's trying to GOAD his opponent into getting into a clinch or going to the ground. He wants his opponent to take him down. When you have this level of confidence in your ground game, coupled with your opponents fear of your ground game, you can be sloppy offensively and DARE your opponent to take you down. That's what Ortega does. He looks like he might have the best chin in the UFC, never been hurt and has taken clean shots. He is ramping up the pressure in his fights until his opponents make a mistake and then it's all over. This guy for me is the most dangerous guy in the UFC right now and I genuinely believe he can go to 155 and dominate there. These guys betting against him will continue to lose money. I'll happily take dog odds on Ortega vs Khabib and I am pretty sure I'll be cashing that bet.

    This Ortega guy is LEGIT
     
  7. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    TOO LONG, DON'T READ IT :D
    Yes
    I did not say Ortega was landing more. You are adding things.
    Edgar played himself in this fight. He was going all offence and gave away his timing in like two minutes. In the same time he received no info about the timing and attacks of Ortega because Ortega was not attacking, just watching.

    Most of Edgar's effective strikes were kicks. Which he abandoned a minute in the fight, I can't tell why, but he did. He punched Ortega 4-5 times with overhand right. From which not all landed clean. I think like a half were glancing blows off Ortega's shoulder. He was defending pretty well. The notion that he is terribly hittable comes from the fact that 1 - he really is hittable, and 2 he likes to take time off to set his traps. And he is not that hittable, a lot of the punches are landing on his chest area or forearms etc.

    I was talking about people that have put Ortega on fading plan - bet on all of his fights to lose. If you genuinely believe in Holloway - that is different.

    I don't know about serious coin, but she can be leg in a parlay with someone else in the card for sure. Andrade is no thai clinch fighter, She does not have the clean technique of Jedrzejczyk. Even when she does the right thing, she is too slow to react and by the time she put her hands where they should be, Jedrzejczyk is already two steps ahead. Technique beats power, remember? In the moments when they were on the fence battling for position and Jesica was not giving up so easy the underhooks, she had some success and was obvious she was the stronger girl by far. I won't even point out that Jessica is way shorter than Val and this makes it a lot easier for the taller fighter to control her with the thai clinch.

    He have to be flawless for 5 rounds, tho. It's not so hard to do it when you are fighting Lamas, who is safe oriented fighter and won't take any risks and go for he finish, even if he needs it to win. This is not JDS-Tuivasa, where Tai had some chances in the beggining and that's pretty much it. And still was a sweat if you were betting JDS.

    Tell me more about your reasons for Jedrzejczyk. I' genuinely wanna know.

    I think Theododou is a STEAL, wtf how is he +165? Come on! I am not even done third of the work on these fights, didn't rewatch Elias' last two fights, but will do right now and have to decide if my hunch is accurate.
    Still cannot believe the hype of Anders is strong after bad performance after bad performance.

    My plans for this card are to parlay Valentina with either Manuwa or Theodorou. And put 5u bet on it. I will have to reawatch a lot of footage of Manuwa and Theodorou to make my decision. If nothing catches my eye will just put 2u on Valentina by sub and that will be my whole betting for the card. I want to check out Nelson's and Ortega's fights but I don't know how much time I will have.
     
  8. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    I'd be concerned with Sheva losing via death by a thousand cuts. She's tentative and boring. Took her two full rounds to finally beat that awful Priscilla in a gigantic mismatch. I remember her fight with Holm looking like a mirror was in the cage. And she faded in that fight iirc (short notice though I think too, and a debut I believe, haha) but I could see JJ winning 4-1 or 3-2. To be fair I could also see JJ getting clipped and swarm KO'd but Sheva isn't a killer and won't exploit this as easily as she should.
     
  9. null Gold Belt

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    I dislike his lame style but I like the value on ring boy Elias Theodorou at +175 against Eryk Anders, especially with Anders coming off the beating of a lifetime. I think he keeps Anders at range with movement & footwork, jabs him at range, throw kicks and wins a decision most likely if he manages to stay on his feet.
     
  10. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Disagree on a STEAL but I'm on him. I could see the line tighten up as the week moves on too.
     
  11. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    I really think the chin issues were from the weight cut.

    In the rematch she took some bombs from rose very well. They were actually harder shots than the one she got finished with in the first fight
     
  12. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    I like Elias at +165.

    He could machida Anders

    I like chook but I think I’ll wait for odds to tighten up

    I’ll play dowadu at -230. I don’t usually like juice but I think he can beat bocniak easily

    Would’ve taken gunni at plus odds but not -175

    Considering fading Claudia, she’s looked bad in her last few fights. She got rocked by Esparza of all people. If Nina can stuff takedowns, which I’d have to tape, she could take a decision

    Would’ve liked to play o “come get these hands” am at dog odds
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
  13. grappler4200 Yellow Belt

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    I can agree with that. That is my concern and why I haven't pulled the trigger yet on shev. Really I see this as jj's only path to victory. So then it comes to shev's fight iq, I think her familiarity with jj may help with her tentativeness. She just has the better skill set overall I believe. Obv That's why she is -300, so now my question as a better should it be somewhere closer to -400, -450. I'm kind of leaning that way, but not certain which is why I wanted to hear other opinions.

    Btw just rewatched the adrande fight and I don't believe it is a fair indicator to how she will deal with shev. Certainly jj worked her over with straight punches and low kicks, but Andrade just plods straight forward throwing from the hips blocking punches with her face. Leans on her on the cage and JJ lands some nice knees and defends well, but that's not even close to the style of clinch work she would work. Andrade did pretty much plant her everytime she changed levels even though jj almost always popped right back up. Also Andrade is tiny, she may be strong for a 5 foot tall 115 lb woman, but def not comparable to the bigger girls.
     
  14. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    She took some shots in the rematch, but she still was stunned in previous fights, by KK and Gadelha too. One thing to add is that Priscila might be the worst fighter in the world, but she is bigger than Joanna.

    Don't forget that Elias not only can spam slappy kicks from distance, he can wrestle and grapple Eryk. I like when my fighter has two paths to victory, if one is denied he still has the other. But I have to watch tape, I hate to cap fights from memory, that's why I was so confident in Pedro to beat the old Shogun (didn't bet him).
     
  15. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Andrade used to fight at 135

    She’s a little tank and she wasn’t able to bully jj. Imo she’s the strongest woman in both weight classes

    Watch how jj worked Karolina over in the clinch

    I would hesitate to play schev at -200 let alone -350
     
  16. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    To be fair, as much as us Rua-backers are puffing our chests out today, it was merely odds dictated. If anything, the win gives us a chance to hopefully have better odds on Rua's next opponent.

    Also, I like the Ortega-Holloway draw prop. Screw it, it's gonna be a weird, close fight probably. And judges love making it all about them. 0.1u
     
  17. Larthus Orange Belt

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    @GrantSorenson did I really just read that you would take Ortega over Khabib and feel confident about it? LmaooooOOOO BOY donate your keyboard to charity after that one. I’m max betting Holloway over this. See you all on the other side
     
  18. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Man, don't make me watch another 5 rounder to find out what I thought I would find.

    Shevchenko is stupid fast (that's why Fedotov gave her the nickname "Bullet"), now that she cut to 125, she is even faster because she is lighter. She works so fast and precise in the clinch, grabbing your neck and then tripping you to the ground.
     
  19. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Boys, I am from different timezone, going to sleep. Will check out what you wrote the next day. Bye :)
     
  20. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    She has a speed and atheletic advantage

    Hardly enough to warrant a -350 play

    If she does trip jj she won’t be able to keep her down

    Much better wrestlers have tried with no success
     

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