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UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. grappler4200 Yellow Belt

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    They all used to fight at 135 it was the only division in the UFC. If there was a 105 lb weight class andrade would be fighting at it. And I'll have to rewatch jj-kk, but I do remember well enough watching kk run forward while looking at the mat and almost getting killed against Andrade. Only thoughts I had watching that was, that girl does not belong in that cage. It wasn't an isolated incident either she did it multiple times.
     
  2. GrantSorenson Blue Belt

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    I would take Ortega vs khabib yes. I would be happy with +300 but I'm guessing I'd get +700ish. Ortega is serious on the ground. Khabib is not safe up close and Ortega can at least match him on the feet.

    I'm calling it now. Ortega is a serious talent that is so unappreciated
     
  3. DevilsPt2 Minion

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    The juice on this card was made by Jim Jones lol. I think more dogs are goin to hit on this card than the last couple(or at least look better than odds indicate). Dont hate Ortega, bet him against Edgar but I would take Moicano in a rematch at even money and I'm definitely taking Holloway here, include me in the -400 group(well maybe -300 lol) and I think it's possible he stops Ortega.

    [​IMG]

    Shout out to Tuivasa. Ref stopped him from getting the KO lol.
     
  4. null Gold Belt

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    She is short but no way Andrade could make 105 pounds, that is a huge exaggeration.
     
  5. t6p Brown Belt

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    The only reason it took Shev two rounds to put away Cachoeria was because Mario Yamasaki apparently wanted to see the first death in the octagon that night. If you recall he hasn’t ref’ed in the UFC since. The fight easily could have been stopped many times and really shouldn’t have left round 1. It was one of the most savage beatings ever in WMMA.

    As far as the Holm fight goes, Shev won rounds 2-5. Rounds 4 and 5 were easily her busiest rounds of the fight so I’m not sure what you mean about her fading. I don’t recall that fight being short notice either and it certainly wasn’t her debut.
     
  6. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    Chookagian-Eye seems like a juicy line. They possess similar styles, but Chookagian can occasionally throw a competent straight left in addition to a competent straight right, and is taller with a slightly longer reach.

    However, I will wait for the juice to settle and props to come out, since the fight is almost certainly going to decision, and Chookagian via decision might be even better.
     
  7. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Theodorou at that price looking like a top 3 play of the year for me. I cap him as a medium favorite against Anders.
     
  8. starfish01 White Belt

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    Just from scanning the lines and no tape:

    Agree with many on here that Elias is the best play on this card at plus odds.

    Also like Brazilian cowboy at plus odds. I am biased against gunnis style but I think he has a big disadvantage standing because of his bottom tier defense and cowboy is extremely fast, powerful, instinctive striker.

    Think anyone taking Dowadu at -200 is kinda nuts. He is talented but he has shown enough red flags were I am not taking him at those kinds of odds against a gritty young vet like Bochniak. Think dowadu wins but this fight screams upset to me.

    My gut tells me Holloway via late TKO or a decision after bloody war.
     
  9. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    ffs, what am I talking about? Sorry, I was remembering the Kaufman fight.
     
  10. GoldenWolf87 Black Belt

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    I am going to love this fight card i am excited.

    The full oddmarks are out and it seems Cowboy is the underdog agaisnt Gunner Nelson. Its a tough match up, but Cowboy is full of upsets.
     
  11. joenewbie Orange Belt

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    But Nunes has serious KO power so Shev had to be tentative. JJ does not have that power so Shev can move forward and be more aggressive even if she takes a couple shots.
     
  12. GoldenWolf87 Black Belt

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    I am liking the odds for Rakic, Sub 1st Round?
     
  13. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    I completely changed my mind after tape watch and some interviews...

    Anders-Theodorou I am not trusting my money to Theodorou even @+odds. I know it's kinda odd, but he was fucking terrible his last fight v T.Smith. Elias' main weapon is his cardio and athletic edge that he has almost every time over his opponents when he wins. I am not too sure he is going to have his cardio advantage after what I saw from him v Smith, and I know Anders is the better athlete as a power in his punches and pure strenght at least.
    Concern is that Anders is coming too soon from bad loss, but Elias was kinda inactive, 6 months from his last fight and we know he has other projects like a modeling gigs... so I don't know how hard he really trains these days. Good for Eryk is he trains with Factory X now and Elevation. I think, not sure...
    complete pass, I don't trust any of these two

    I'll try to be more short on the next fight. I can't trust Manuwa too. He is so focused on getting the KO, that he forgets his defence. You just have to throw something into his direction and 9 times out of 10 it will be super close to hit him, if you throw second and third punch after that, you'll nail him with something. He has weak chin, too.
    complete pass, I don't trust any of these two

    From first glance Bochniak being such an underdog seems wrong to me, but just like the above mentioned fights, I though the same for them, and had to watch tape to be sure and I became really unsure.

    From tape watch now I am 90%+ sure in Shevchenko and Nelson. Will probably play them in a parlay and play Bochniak's line (if I see what I like from Bochniak) on another bet.
     
  14. joenewbie Orange Belt

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    The UFC matchmakers have been doing a good job lately of creating close match ups of +100-+190 underdogs for the PPV and I think the dogs have been winning a little more than in the past. The cable TV cards seem to have a ton of +500-+1000 dogs on them that almost always get clobbered just as expected.
     
  15. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Schevchenko is tentative vs everyone. She’s a counter fighter. She’s not going to be aggressive against anyone

    She brutalized a can and now she’s -335 vs Joanna champ

    Well she beat her in Thai matches 10 plus years ago

    Smh
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
  16. theTKDguy Silver Belt

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    Skipped both cards this past weekend, i fell asleep during the tuf card and had a party yesterday. this card is must watch tho, definitely looking forward to this one. wanted to bet cowboy but it looks like uberguni has been working since the ponzi loss. will watch some tape this days.
     
  17. theTKDguy Silver Belt

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    so your telling me a guy who finished guida, cub, moicano and frankie is a unknown entity? LOL

    ortega is arguably as proven as max at this point. they are both great fighters. this fight ends with max via decision or ortega via sub/tko. i'm with ortega
     
  18. GoldenWolf87 Black Belt

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    I cant believe they brought back Evil for UFC 231 ugh. I will take a stab at Chookagian for a Dec win.
     
  19. DevilsPt2 Minion

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    I agree completely, I hope people steam Shevchenko to -500. Very possible given everyone knows JJ has lost to her in striking matches before and JJs fights with Rose(who I bet both times btw). Like you said Shev is tentative against all her opponents, she wont be putting the volume on JJ, shes going to need to stun her to slow her down, drop her to make up for the volume JJ puts out, clinch often to nullify the volume and/or get takedowns and keep them longer than 10 seconds. JJ is goin to be extremely hard to takedown and hold down though. I expect JJ to be much more motivated, want this win more(Shev already won multiple times) and I'm absolutely sure shes training like it.

    Shev is extremely strong, JJ chin is questionable and she could very well get dropped or even KOed by one of Shevs counters but I'm rolling with JJ. If she becomes a bigger dog I'm adding more. I expect her DEC line to be very close to her ML.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
  20. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Already on Theodorou and Brazilian Cowboy. Love them both as dogs. 1u each.

    I think Shev is going to beat the brakes off Joanna but no way Im paying -300 for her. I think the lead hook is going to make a huge difference.

    Also like Thiago Santos but I will wait for the KO line. Sadly I think it will be really close to his ML... Jimi is fucking old, does not have a chin and Santos looks durable at 205. The most likely scenario IMO is that Marreta pushes forward like he always do and lands something.
    Also Thiago will be the faster man.

    Does Nina has a path of victory against Gadelha? I know Claudia didnt made justice to his juicy odds against Carla... but Nina dropped 1 round against the likes of Randa Markos and Angela Hill. Claudia is in the -270 range and while I dont like betting big favs I may cap her higher.
    Why Dhiego Lima is still in the UFC? His terrible.
    Fuck it.. Chad Laprise + Gadelha.. 1u at -116

    Also 1u on Durinho at +125. Not sold on OAM.
     

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