1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Gugabe Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    2,190
    Likes Received:
    301
    The dude who was losing to each and every one of those people before he finished them, yeah. Cub and Guida aren't really great wins at this point, too. Holloway just gonna pour volume on Ortega late for an ugly stoppage.
     
  2. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages:
    2,451
    Likes Received:
    24
    Location:
    Canada
    Ortega has beaten this caliber of fighters (note I'm taking their overall record now, not a snapshot of when they fought Ortega): 1-7, 12-12, 1-13, 5-2, 7-7, 4-1, 14-6, 5-1, 14-9, 22-10, 23-13, 34-18, 13-1, 25-10, and a 23-6 Frankie. Hardly top opponents. Max has fought a murderer's row compared to this pile of shit. Lamas two years ago was very dangerous. Pettis two years ago was still capable. I don't agree Aldo was a total wash up and he beat him handily twice.

    Ortega has been impressive, yes. But I would absolutely call him an unknown entity when facing a dominant champ in Max. In fact, Ortega's MO is being an unknown entity and catching his opponents thus and unaware of what he'll do suddenly or next. At these odds I want the guy who I know is going to drag Ortega deep and try to drown him. I want that guy that has that champ edge with the judges if this goes to decision.


    I think Ortega losing to each has actually been debunked thoroughly itt but completely agree Cub and Guida are not great wins. The playbook on beating them was written for Ortega loooong ago. Agree on the method as well, but could go the distance as well. But we don't know how Ortega will hold up if it goes long though; more to my unknown entity point.
     
  3. Dianabol Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2018
    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gugabe, you're 0-3 when betting against Ortega. And all 3 of those opponents were favored to win. Whats Ortega gotta do to earn your respect? beat Max? He probably will
     
  4. Dianabol Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2018
    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    0
    How does OAM beat Burns?
     
  5. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2007
    Messages:
    11,959
    Likes Received:
    4,248
    Location:
    LONG BEACH CITY
    While I was in Vegas, I was offered a bet on JDS/Tuivasa to go o1.5 (rather than o2.5) and the fight recorded at exactly 2:30 seconds of the 2nd round.

    Does the bet cash or push? This casino graded me as a loss which is pretty dumb
     
  6. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages:
    2,451
    Likes Received:
    24
    Location:
    Canada
    And then Tai pops right up and yells at the ref...salt in the wound there. That's casino bs though, at worst that should be a push, no?
     
  7. Gugabe Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    2,190
    Likes Received:
    301
    Put together an actual gameplan and don't exist as a cobbled together collection of what I fade in fighters. I had a similar streak on Conor, and it paid off in the end.

    Not sure. Best case scenario'd be a 29-28 on top control, maybe? Burns definitely shouldn't be the dog.
     
  8. chemmy Green Belt

    Joined:
    May 9, 2002
    Messages:
    1,324
    Likes Received:
    180
    Location:
    Canada
    Takedowns + cardio for a close decision
     
  9. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2007
    Messages:
    11,959
    Likes Received:
    4,248
    Location:
    LONG BEACH CITY
    Dunno man I’m gonna talk to management. Has this ever happened to anyone before?
     
  10. Cockadoodle Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2018
    Messages:
    606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Excerpt from Mmabettingodds.com
    I post it but it is still hazy what happens at 2.30 of round 2..

    Over/Under Bet
    • Fighter A vs. Fighter B – Over 2.5 Round -115 / Under 2.5 Rounds +105
    One of the easiest ways to bet on an MMA fight is by betting the over/under. In an over/under bet the bookie will post a round total, and you need to bet on whether the fight will last longer or shorter than the round total.

    Over under odds are posted to the bookies desecration. But they are fairly standard across the board.

    Here are some examples of the Over Under listings.

    • Over Under 1.5 Rounds – Usually found when two aggressive fighters fight.
    To win the over bet, the bout must pass 2.5minsof the second round.
    To win the under the fight needs to end before 2.5mins of round 2.
     
  11. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2017
    Messages:
    9,739
    Likes Received:
    3,223
    Location:
    Wash
    Should be a push. I'm sure you know how totals work in other sports especially if it's an even number. Say I take the celtics team total at over 105. They score 105 and it pushes. Why wouldn't that be the case here? Argue with those mofos.
     
  12. Dianabol Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2018
    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    0
    I like Burns too, I swear people forget sometimes that he's an elite BJJ player. Burns has also taken down every single opponent he's fought in the UFC expect for Hooker.

    Burns let me down vs Hooker, he should of gone for TD's and he would have won easily

    Burns' cut to 155 is brutal too, he's a massive LW, probably doesn't help his chin.

    KO power, elite BJJ, I'll take Burns too.
     
  13. Gugabe Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    2,190
    Likes Received:
    301
    Yeah. Hernandez just outgrappled OAM on the power of grit, anger and copious amounts of PEDs. Burns also has the PEDs, so he'll be fine and he's a level of elite BJJ that's kind of above anything OAM's beaten. Hooker was a bad matchup for Burns, but I don't see OAM being able to stop Burns getting into the grappling match/brawl he wants. Kinda shades of Caraway/Munhoz here.
     
  14. raketmannen Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2016
    Messages:
    3,515
    Likes Received:
    0
    I got it graded as a push on Pinnacle at least
     
  15. raketmannen Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2016
    Messages:
    3,515
    Likes Received:
    0
    I don't know if that's positive for him though, Oliveira got some freak athletisicm, I think he will be stronger anyways. This might just make Nelson a bit slower for his takedown shots or striking blitzes
     
  16. michi972 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,876
    Likes Received:
    85
    Leaning towards Manuwą, Nelson, Anders and Burns
     
  17. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2018
    Messages:
    4,781
    Likes Received:
    1,222
    Hernandez is also a much better wrestler than Burns is, so that's a poor template to use. I don't see any comparison to Caraway-Munhoz either, since Munhoz is a legitimately good striker, and Burns is average at best, with a host of flaws.

    Don't know if I will bet the moneyline, and need to watch more tape on both to be completely certain, but I'm excited to see the line on the fight going to decision.
     
  18. Dianabol Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2018
    Messages:
    689
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hakeem Dawodu should cruise to an easy decision vs Bochniak.

    Hakeem is super athletic and looks like a very well trained kickboxer. I was really excited when I heard he was making his UFC debut because I had seen what a great prospect he was in WSOF. Too bad Hakeem got caught by Henry in his debut, a fight he should of won. Bounced back and looked great in his win over Arnett, great combinations.

    I don't think Bochniak has anything for him
     
  19. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2018
    Messages:
    1,839
    Likes Received:
    491
    @DevilsPt2, @ill800
    I get that you are tempted by + money on Jedrzejczyk, but she does not have a clear path to victory here.

    He does not even need to be that uberguni to beat him. Stylistically it's really close to a nightmare match-up (for Cowboy). Since Alex was thrown out ATT because he was a dick he has zero progress in the technical department. He have so little of substance in his game - mainly athleticism. He is like Jake Matthews, but somehow worse. At least Jake won't do some stupid shit for the sake of it to tire himself out with them or give the opponent openings.

    Think he was massive before USADA. I've seen comparison pictures of him before and now and there is a difference.

    No, he would not win. Hooker is like 70%+ TDD and he can defend himself on the ground. It's a long shot to bet Burns v someone that he does not any options but to grapple to win. He does not have the wrestling. Wrestling is king in MMA, don't care what people say.

    In this match-up I don't like either of these guys for betting. Burns is all or nothing guy, he never wins decisions. OAM I am dissapointed by him. I remember watched him v Drew Dober and he was so sharp there with his striking, man it was night and day from his fight with Gouti. But I don't know if it was a match-up thing or what, this striking we didn't see it ever again. If we are talking Oliver from the Dober fight, I would say he is a LOCK to win. But is he gonna fight like that? And Firas fighters don't inspire confidence in me. He is a great talker, philosopher, but training and gameplanning I can't say. If you are the right type of fighter, like Bektic, who is all offence and need some restraint to make him more defensively responsible I would say yes, but everybody else - not so good. I can tell you a number of TriStar guys that lost in the last 5 months and the opponent they lost weren't even that good.
     
  20. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2018
    Messages:
    1,839
    Likes Received:
    491
    Zabit didn't cruise to exactly an easy decision and you are telling me this guy will. OK. Maybe you are right, but Dawodu is not proved v the upper echelon and Kyle is better than the guys he usually beats. I undestand I talked shit about TriStar but we got new opponent Bochniak - TriStar and Arnett trains at SikJitsu. And Arnett is not the athlete Bochniak is.
    I did not get to watch tape on this fight yet, but just on paper it's a scrap, not so one sided as you say.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.