UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

Many lines I wanted to get in on, only got to research one fight throughly however. 2U Anderson Dec 2.80, as my goal is to use more props as I´ve been doing, rather than paying for things that I don´t see happening. If anyone cares, my two cents on the fights and a bit of my research, I was actually considerign betting on Latifi, always hard to bet against guys who made you money, but everything is just too good here for CA.

Ilir Latifi(Light heavyweight)
- Orthodox/Southpaw
- Sweden
- 29 years old
- 73,5 inches reach
- 173 cm tall

Current gym: PANCRASE GYM SWEDEN
Pro debut: 2008 may
Amateur debut: 2008 september
Belts:
- Wrestling background. Many wrestlers in his family.
National team wrestler, Nordic champion, ADCC European champion, Superior Challenge champion

Overall summary: Latifi is a classic heavy power puncher, he throws devastating overhands, has excellent bodyslams and good wrestling,
and also come from a wrestling background. His gastank is not good, often he is gassed by round 2 however he did look good vs Pedro with
his gastank, but he was also not pressured as much and was dominant for the majority of the fight.
He is often good at using his explosiveness to close the distance when faced against fighters with much longer reach.
He is unreliable in terms of what you get, his weaknesses definitely is his gastank, and kicks. He has been hurt many times by heavy bodyshots, and he often comes in with the same way of fighting, just throwing overhands, and hoping for the best. His recent win vs OSP raised his stock tremendously, and I think that has influenced the lines quite a bit, he finally has hype behind him.
When I bet on him vs Vilante 2½ years ago, I believed headkicks would be his weakness, and that´d he would be able to handle the powerful
legkicks, he did. This time, its no vilante, no ryan bader, or any other powerpuncher. But he´s faced with a high volume striker, who handles distance well, has good combos, excellent cardio, and I believe slightly better wrestling. Obviously Latifis win condition is also
Andersons lose condition however. So I won´t be suprised if CA gets knocked out and it looks easy.

Corey Anderson (Light heavyweight)

Corey Anderson

- Orthodox
- USA
- 29 years old
- 79 inches reach
- 190,5 cm tall

Current gym: The Kennel Fight Club

Pro debut: 2013 march
Amateur debut: 2013 october

Belts:

- Purple belt in BJJ
- Wrestled in college
- TUF 19 light heavyweight winner, XFL light heavyweight champ, purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu
- Amateur competition accomplishments: Two-time college wrestling All-American, once in Junior College (6th) and once in NCAA D3 (2nd)

Overall summary: Anderson is a very disciplined guy. Listening to his corner both in between rounds and during the fights
with mark henry, using secret language to tell him what to do. He´s said himself that he lost focus in the OSP fight, but since then has been very focused and not letting up that focus. He´s an excellent controlling wrestler much like colby convington.
He´s got overall great footwork, good headmovement, and very good cardio to last 3 rounds without looking fatigued, despite alot of control, many takedowns and even when he has failed many takedowns, he still looks fresh. He mostly uses double leg takedowns and bodylocks nearly all the time, rarely he may use a single leg or simply pull put his opponents legs, when he has done so however he has been smart and turned his opponents away from the cage. He has good overhands/hook, he goes for the body, and occasionally will throw a headkick or lowkick, usually he doesn´t kick very much though, he prefers to use his hands, and use his superior wrestling. He uses feitns and level changes to make space and create openings for his takedowns.
He very rarely goes for finishes even when he is in complete control the entire round and his opponent is fatigued like vs cummins, he may try some half arsed attempts at a RNC but he is glad with just keeping control. He is good at making his opponents carry his weight, aswell as landing knees and protecting himself when they split or clinch up. Good fight iq, can be seen when he turns glover away from the cage when he goes for a single leg and gets it. Same in the OSP fight when he knew OSP had superior power, and he used his superior wrestling to OSP, even though OSP is not a bad wrestler himself.
Good gameplans. He doesn´t have too much power, but when he hits the temple or a clean uppercut he can rock people, he´s also able tocut when he lands good combos, where he´ll both use knees, jabs, shots to the body, and overhands while maintaing distance control,avoiding getting hit himself. Him beating Glover also is a big statement, and gives me confidence. I feel he is the better fighter, with so many more tools to win this fight. So I´m happy to take the shot at 2.80 for a decision for CA, seeing how inactive he is with his submissions, lack of real KO power, how tough latifi is, and I like how reliable Corey Anderson is. I trust him and his corner, despite Corey costing me alot of hair pulling when he lost Shogun back in 2016. Since the OSP loss he has really seemed focused the entire fight, he also looked good at the weigh ins. If he loses this it´ll most likely be by an overhand from Latifi and we´ll see Anderson dance, so one could hedge this for perhaps a more secure profit, but I prefer this line, and am suprised so many are on the ML of Anderson and not the dec prop, and if you look at the statistics, Anderson is so far ahead everywhere except for submission attempts, because he is fine with maintaining control. And frankly I´m happy about that here, as if he gets him down, it´ll be much easier and safer.
And even though Latifi is good at closing the distance against fighters with much bigger reach like CA, CA has shown himself to really use distance control well, even when on the offensive, so thats another plus.

My line for CA decision prop is 2.22, so 2.80, I´m very pleased. But like i said, its one of those fights where you easily can say "yeap, that was obvious". I also have a hunce that latifi due to the OSP win has some etter odds than we´d otherwise seen.
 
Boom/Jackson likely sees the cards imo. Boom should be chasing td's and Jackson is good enough to stall or pepper Boom at a distance to a decision. Jackson more likely to finish in that respect.

Not a lot to be found on Lewis (except for JW calling him a future champ, etc but they also said that about Phil Hawes lol)
Hall is a huge front runner imo. Hall finish early or Lewis finish late.

Ewell/Wood screams DNGTD. Both have defensive flaws on the feet. Southpaw Ewell might give Wood fits but Wood has more ways to win. Thinking the leg kicks and power right hand plus the ground game of Wood give him a big edge.

Andrade is a dead man walking.

Didnt tape money/Volk. Everybody and their momma is on chad. Dont see the confidence since his last fight after the suspension was 2 minutes long. A lot of question marks

From what I remember Yan is really good and will win pretty easily, but doesn't chase the finish? He's the most expensive guy on DK, so to justify his price he would need to finish early or land a TON of strikes and finish late. Even if he lands a lot of strikes and wins a decision he won't justify his price. Do you think he finishes, or just breezes to a lopsided decision?

Good stuff man, thanks.
 
Good chance of Mendes and Hall KOing their respective opponents, Hall especially. Volk could catch Mendes too though his chins not been tested since his comeback.
Yan is a way better striker than Andrade and probably dominates, reasonable chance of a finish as Font hurt Andrade before.
Ewell and Wood could both finish from what others said but I've not looked into it much myself.

Thanks man, appreciate it. I think I need Wood in an extra lineup or 2.
 
Is there a prop for BJ Penn getting utterly humiliated?
 
Gus’s odds are a must play for me. Jones will likely win but I’m fine with throwing $50 on the mauler
 
Is there a prop for BJ Penn getting utterly humiliated?

He's never been subbed before, right? Getting submitted by this fucking guy would constitute humiliation considering the greatness Penn once possessed. I think the sub prop is like +300... So there's your answer at what it pays.
 
He's never been subbed before, right? Getting submitted by this fucking guy would constitute humiliation considering the greatness Penn once possessed. I think the sub prop is like +300... So there's your answer at what it pays.

Yeah, that's the last thing BJ has left, to say he's never been subbed. He's going to ruin that stat by getting choked unconscious by Ryan Hall.
 
If Jon loses (@ 205) it's gonna be by decision IMO. Phil Mackenzie suggested on Heavy Hands that if Gustafsson just chooses to stand his ground and go to war it's maybe his best chance to win. I'm a little worried about that, because The Mauler implied that he will go after Jones this time. But even if this happen I see the same scenario that happened to DC the second time around. He will show obvious improvements than the 1st fight and will win a round but he'll put so much effort to do this that he'll be exhausted past the 2nd and after that it's Jones' territory.

My thinking is you generally beat GOAT's by decision. These are fighters without obvious holes, they fight 5 rounders all the time, very well prepared, superb athletes... you name it they have it. Cejudo barely squeaked out a decision win (I know it's flyweights, but still), Cody won the title from the GOAT Dom Cruz by decision, the only time GSP lost (after he established himself as a GOAT with multiple title defences) was by decision to Johny and I know it's officially a win but we all know he lost that, at the minimum this should be a draw. :)

Jones has more tools , kicks, knees, elbows, and punches. While Gus is always looking for ONE uppercut or overhand right.

I expect Jones to rely heavily on the jab and clinch. While Gus will still be looking to land one punch at a time then disengage. If Gus can throw a double jab followed by an uppercut and string his punches together he could easily win. But I know he's gonna throw one or two punches at a time then use his footwork to get out like he always does.

Jones TKO in the 3rd via having more tools and being a smarter fighter on fight night.
 
Anyone else going to be fading BJ Penn to the max and getting Hall ITD at better than +200? I think I'll sprinkle a little on that.
 
Need a little help guys. I'm building a few DK lineups for the GPP's (not playing any cash games since I haven't been watching tape, but I do want to take a stab at the tournaments). I don't want to try to dig back through the thread. Thoughts (and esp on chances of finishes) on:

Kelleher/Jackson
Lewis/Hall
Ewell/Wood
Andrade/Yan
Volk/Money

Even without tape I think I have at least a decent feel for the rest of the fights on the card. These 5 are the ones I could use some help with. Thanks in advance to whoever replies!

I'd have say that Lewis is taking a big step up in competition and Hall fights well when he is the hammer, he can smash and will smash you given the opportunity. If I had to pick a result, then Hall Dec/KO is it. That being said he has shown major inconsistency in his performances, with a tendency to fade if he doesn't get his opponent out of there. Also just because Lewis is unproven doesn't mean he isn't good. Hall as an underdog is a good play here.

Mendez appears to be a faster, more athletic, higher level wrestler and more experienced fighter than Volk, but Volk is very good, hits hard and doesn't have as many fight miles on the clock (or any potential post-USADA concerns). If I had to pick I would go with Mendez, with the odds having him as a smallish favourite being about right. While either fighter could get the KO, I think Volk is going to be pretty hard to put away. I'm passing on this one personally.

Not too sure about the other fights.
 
Condit went through a divorce

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/carlos-condit-new-girlfriend.3887225/

http://www.ufc.ca/news/Condit-Searching-For-Proof

Outside the cage, the 34-year-old father of two has gone through a divorce, and admits that some of those personal challenges had an impact on his preparation and performance in the Octagon.

“I had a bunch of stuff going on in my personal life that I think bled into my career,” said Condit. “I’ve got some of that settled, put some of that behind me and I have a freedom right now where I’m just doing this because I’m digging it and I’m loving it.”
I hope so! Thought the same reasoning would work for Brian Caraway recently but he got smoked very quickly! I agree that Chiesa has sucked recently so wish Condit the best.
 
Late line movements.

Cyborg ML @-202. Hovered around -240-250.
Bevon Lewis ML @ -152. Was an even money fight.
Montel Jackson ML @ -194. Hovered around -160 to -165.
Walt Harris ML @ -212. Hovered around -165-170 during the week
 
Does it blow anyone else away that Siyar Bahadurzada debuted in early 2002? Surely there aren't many active fighters that have been going longer than that...
 
Late movement against Cyborg seems strange. Have people not seen her feeding the just bleed gods for years?
 
Late line movements.

Cyborg ML @-202. Hovered around -240-250.
Bevon Lewis ML @ -152. Was an even money fight.
Montel Jackson ML @ -194. Hovered around -160 to -165.
Walt Harris ML @ -212. Hovered around -165-170 during the week
Really think most of those are kinda crazy to see. Especially the Lewis line, hasn't even had his debut and his pre-UFC career is against terrible competition now he's the favourite over a legit top 15 guy and finisher like Hall.
I'll see how the rest of my bets go but if I can get Cyborg better than -200 it's going to be very tempting.
 
Late line movements.

Cyborg ML @-202. Hovered around -240-250.
Bevon Lewis ML @ -152. Was an even money fight.
Montel Jackson ML @ -194. Hovered around -160 to -165.
Walt Harris ML @ -212. Hovered around -165-170 during the week
Cyborg and Lewis movements are understandable.

Hall is so unreliable and inconsistent, he's a bust, never lived up to expectations, question his motivation. Lewis trains with Jones on a regular basis, young, athletic prospect with good potential, lacks experience but has all the upside.

Nunes 5-1 as an underdog in the UFC, very profitable, Cyborgs biggest challenge, multiple ways to win, younger, faster, still improving.

But IDK about Jackson and Harris. Jackson looked green in his UFC debut and you can't trust Harris to win fights, he'll find ways to lose, he'll DQ himself if he has to
 
Can't get it out of my head that Siyar was really battered around and not far from being finished a good while ago against John Howard.... Dude was gassed the fuck out and barely survived the third.
 
Does it blow anyone else away that Siyar Bahadurzada debuted in early 2002? Surely there aren't many active fighters that have been going longer than that...

Arlovski 1999
Penn 2001
Condit 2002

That's just guys from this event!
 
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