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UFC 232 might be the one for me. . . (some advice please, sherbros)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by xhaydenx, Dec 19, 2018.

  1. xhaydenx Black Belt

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    These last few months I've been doing these fake bets to see how I'd go doing 3-5 fight multi-bets and putting $2500 on it each time.

    I do a fair bit of research and I watch nearly every UFC fight that happens, and so far I've got 4 right and 2 wrong, so far losing 5k off the two wrong ones, but off the 4 winning ones I would've won 180k.

    One of the events - the recent China card - I totally guessed most of the right ones, so I got seriously lucky there.

    But I think now it is time for me to take the plunge and finally start making some actual paper off this. I'm giving myself a limit of 10k, which means I'll try 2.5k on 4 different UFC events. I won't be betting on every single card that comes up either, just the ones I feel confident in.

    So, yeah, 232 has some nice matchups for me. I'm thinking:

    Chiesa to beat Condit

    Condit just doesn't have it anymore. He was getting totally handled by Magny everywhere. Chiesa will have watched this and will be clinching and looking for TDs immediately. He's also a better sub specialist than Magny.

    Latifi to beat Corey Anderson.

    I don't feel like Anderson is going to be able to handle the power shots of Latifi, and Latifi is a strong wrestlier. I only worry if it drags on and Latifi gases, but it is a 3 rounder, so I like Latifi here.

    BJ to beat Ryan Hall.

    I know BJ is bad now, but I like him in this. He's crafty enough on the ground and his takedown defense, while he couldn't stop Edgar, he should be able to stop someone like Hall who doesn't have a serious takedown game. I see BJ pushing forward and winning a decision, most likely.

    So, if I got these 3 right it would return 27k.

    Some other possible ones to add from this card are:

    Urijah Hall

    I feel like Hall is way to big of a stepping stone.

    Chad

    I like Volk, but again, Chad is a massive step up. I know Chad has been away a while, but I think that's been good for him. He proved he's still got the power against Jury. I'd worry about Volk catching him, but of all the Volk fights I've watched, he hasn't really done that to anybody except Elkins, who has no striking def.

    Cat.

    Should maul Megan. I've been watching Megan since her Invicta days, and I don't think she's going to go far in the UFC. She's too slow and has zero ground skills. Cat will take it to the ground and work her over.

    If all those came in it'd return 139k, which would be pretty good.


    So, yeah, what do you guys think of those first three, and possibly adding 1 or 2 of the second three for this multi?
     
  2. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    That’s a good way to lose $10k really fast

    If you want to try to shoot the moon on a lotto ticket it go for it. But the odds of those 3 picks all hitting are very low.

    If you actually believe you have gambling skill and want to build on it. Try betting a reasonable amount on individual fights like $100 instead of parlaying 25% of your bankroll on an almost certain loser. If you really prefer to do parlays, start small with maybe $5-$10 each.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
  3. Obsidian Fracture No sunshine when it's on

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    A sample size of 6 is impossibly small to determine your long term chances of winning. You are much better betting a few % of your bank roll at a time and playing the long game. This is assuming your 10K is USD.

    If you really are good at this, betting say 5% of your bank roll per event ($500) max to start off with then going from there is a much better option. If you score big on your first $500 like you think you will then you will have plenty of house money to keep the ball rolling. If you find out that you just got lucky/go on tilt and burn more money than you want to/any of the other common betting downfalls you will have only gone through 1.5K over three event instead of potentially 10K.

    Right off the bat I can tell you putting shot BJ penn in a parlay is a crazy move.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2018
  4. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Honestly, I don't see problem with any of these picks.
     
  5. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Cause what could go wrong putting thousands of dollars on multiple fight parlays with guys like the ghost of BJ Penn, Chiesa and the UFC's greatest flake Uriah Hall?
     
  6. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I feel like people fail to understand the leaps in competitive BJJ since Penn's days, too. He's not still A+++ on the ground
     
  7. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Funniest post I've read in a while
     

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