Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jordan3399, Mar 31, 2019.
I see dogs.
Poirier at these odds is a must bet IMO. He's a natural striker that won't let Max piece him up. I wonder what the FGTD props will be. Poirier by decision should be an interesting prop.
I love Adesanya and think he's the future of the division but Gastelum is a very very hard out. He may be the worst case scenario actually for Israel. I want to see props but does Israel have the power to KO Gas or is he going to rely on out pointing him for 25 minutes? Seems like a stretch. On the other hand, does Gas have the ability to get his hands on Israel and make it a dirty fight? Sick, sick fight. Can't wait.
Other initial leans I will have to tape - Looking forward to this one for sure.
Think Adesanya outstrikes Gastelum pretty easily. In terms of striking diversity they're polar opposites.
Already hit Poirier +225 pretty hard as well. Max is great but I still question his TDD and Poirier is still a beast on the feet. His fight with Gaethje also a pretty good indicator as to how he can cope with Max's pressure.
Got a small bit on Reis atm but need to tape more. Also interested in OSP, he was a huge fav over Krylov in their first fight and dominated him wit ha quick TD and sub now in the rematch OSP is a very slight fav. Can't see how either guy has changed dramatically enough to justify that at all to be honest. DNGTD gonna be completely juiced but OSP ITD might be nice.
Holloway will completely dominate Poirier unless he incorporates a leg kick heavy attack into his gameplan.
No tape I like
Fdgtd in the main event (think holloway takes it but it's a close one, poirier at dog odds may be a good bet)
Adesanya by dec
Rest of fights are blaaand
Wow, completely dominate him? What in the hell are you smoking?
On Gastelum. I think Izzys road to the top has been Taylor made for him ala Conor McGregor. Wilkinson? Come on. Vettori had that Italian Fight IQ. Tavares was a good win I'll give him that but I think Kelvin smokes him too. Brunson sucks. There I said it. Wrestle fucking wasn't the gameplan for him. Straight up blitz until Izzy fell was the best option for him. Do I even need to say anything about Anderson Silva?
I hope y'all bet DP a lot so I can get a better price on Holloway. All aboard the Blessed Express!
Tempted to fade Khalil against anyone who can kinda wrestle but is Anders that guy? Both guys are untrustworthy of your money even to go get your order at Jack in The Box. Mmmm ultimate cheeseburger mmmm.
Considering Weis but I'm very wary of Pan. Weis is still strong af and pushes a hard pace but I would be afraid of Pans back take ability and general ferocity on the feet. Fight will be more competitive than the line indicates imo.
So far only got 3.5u on KG +185
YEAH... Gastelum is just a 1-2, but he is hella quick with that combo and has that ultra durable chin and cardio, + he has the wrestling edge. adesanya is not a big mw, doesnt have the one kill shot power, gastelum will have a lot of chances to make his game work, regardless of how limited it is. dont coutn him out, jordan.
TBH Jordan, Dustin had to take him down the 1st fight, he was getting washed on the feet. Both has gain experience and improved, but Max is still a lot better standing up to me at least. I don't worry one bit about Max if the fight is on the feet for the majority of the time. The only thing i worry is the ground. Max is going to fuck Dustin up on the feet, though - guaranteed.
I got my eyes on that Millender V Muhammad fight. I got French Montana all the way here. Just waiting for the odds.
Fuck Kyle agrees with me. I'm in trouble.
Millender will be big favourite
Lock of the card is Montel Jackson, dont lost money betting on Andre S.
Very possible winners
I like the value of Porier at >+200. Think this fight should be a pickem. Holloway fighting at a heavier weight class, can't wear as many strikes from Porier, and he beat him before even if it was a long ass time ago.
Max is better on the feet no doubt but Poirier still has great boxing and hits a lot harder. So it'll still be very competitive. The big thing for me is that a terrible wrestler in Ortega got Max down twice. Poirier has much better positional BJJ than Ortega and wrestling so he should be able to hit them and will do a much better job keeping Max down. Also expect Max to get his first taste of ATT calf kicks this match up. I favour Max overall for sure but Poirier at +225 is way too wide. Also I don't take the first fight into consideration at all, its completely irrelevant imo.
As for Gas he has time to make it work and could but his grappling is overrated and we saw Adesanya easily shutdown the wrestling of Brunson. I think there's a good chance the fight just looks like Izzy vs Tavares with a one sided decision.
I woudlnt bet Milender against Belal because his tdd sucks big time
Not talking about betting, just responding to Kyle in regarding to him "waiting on odds"
Poirier is more powerful striker here, better wrestler and better grappler, he was in many wars too and won against Gaethje. All his loses are from early KO and i dont believe Max have enough power to do that. Dustin have more tools to win this. Holloway will have little advantage on the feet, cardio, and perhaps chin but we stiil dont know how he will adapt to higher class. I think with these odds Porier is a great bet.
Last time that happened i lost a few thousand
oh sorry, I forgot that.
That cracked me up.
Still, I kinda think it will take a lot of effort for him to take Max down. First time Poirier had to literally lift Max off the ground to take him down, this happens when all other regular methods just doesn't work. He has that supreme TDD and he was a kid back then, a lot skinnier than now. + money on Poirier doesn't look tempting at all. Would like to see how much is Poirier by sub, tho.
"Max had to literally lift Max off the ground to take him down"- What amazing analysis.
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