UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

[Dianabol]

TBF this is a way different style matchup and that fight didn't do anything to dissuade the notion of Millender having poor tdd and grappling.

That said, there are also a ton of bad bettors on this forum if were being honest, so there can be both recency bias for them as well as legitimate reasons to be on Belal without taking that fight into much account.

Millender has had suspect grappling and TDD his whole career, it wasn't a secret, Zaleski didn't really show me something I didn't already know. Zaleski is a legit BJJ blackbelt under Christano Marcello. Belal has never even submitted anyone in MMA and his grappling is mediocre by UFC WW standards.

Belal's best chance in this fight is to try to replicate his performance over Randy Brown but I don't think he will. Belal is so hittable and he's gotta close that distance every round and get TD's, I don't see him doing it without getting lit up really bad or KO'd. And even if Belal does get top position, he's not much of a threat on the mat.

If Zaleski vs Millender never happened, Millender would be like -180 over Belal. This current line is all about recency bias as @Oblivian already said. Any sort of +money on Millender is good value IMO

 

[Sadistics]

Didn't want to disrupt the bet thread, but just curious.

To all of you that already put in your bets, and you all have mighty big brass ones imo, do you put in your bets this early because the research is all done and you have eyed this card from this far out? Or you know most of the fighters so well you can handicap the match-ups on the fly and take advantage of prices?

This two week gap is throwing me off, as I prefer one week exactly to research a card, and begin looking into the next one.

Most bets of mine are made after research, though in some cases I'll place a small bet prior to tape if I have a strong lean and expect the line to move unfavourably. Timing is important if you know how to read line movement, the term sharp simply means getting the best of the line.

 

[TrueAscension]

I place bets early to get lines I like but I also like to see interviews/weigh ins etc before going hard on them.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

So...Randy Costa has been fighting pro for like...a year...and none of the guys he beat have winning records. Granted I haven't gotten into tape of him yet but how is Davis only -150 in this spot? Can Randy wrestle at all lol.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

So...Randy Costa has been fighting pro for like...a year...and none of the guys he beat have winning records. Granted I haven't gotten into tape of him yet but how is Davis only -150 in this spot? Can Randy wrestle at all lol.

He's going to get rekt. I'm raging bet365 doesn't have that fight up yet I want to play davis before he balloons up to -200+

 

[burge13]

So...Randy Costa has been fighting pro for like...a year...and none of the guys he beat have winning records. Granted I haven't gotten into tape of him yet but how is Davis only -150 in this spot? Can Randy wrestle at all lol.

I haven't seen him fight but his wins are via head kick, body shots and a TKO so I'd suggest he's a striker to have a diverse amount of finishing via strikes?

 

[OutRun]

So...Randy Costa has been fighting pro for like...a year...and none of the guys he beat have winning records. Granted I haven't gotten into tape of him yet but how is Davis only -150 in this spot? Can Randy wrestle at all lol.

Not only that, but Costa opened as the favorite. Checking tape now...

 

[edole]

I favor Muhammad.

He is a smart guy and he knows he is at a great disadvantage on the feet.

I also dont see any reason why he shouldnt be able to get TDs here.

With Millender's very suspect ground game and lack of a "get up" game, I see Muhammad handling Millender.

Of course, he could get caught on the feet FIRST or could get caught with something coming in, but I think there is value on Muhammad here.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Had a quick scan of comments here, sorry if I missed it, but didn't really see too much on what Adesanya backers say to Gas being an immense step up for him. Does his style still outweigh that for you? Because Gas is indeed a huge leap up for him. (Anderson doesn't count, I think we can all agree.)

 

[TrueAscension]

Had a quick scan of comments here, sorry if I missed it, but didn't really see too much on what Adesanya backers say to Gas being an immense step up for him. Does his style still outweigh that for you? Because Gas is indeed a huge leap up for him. (Anderson doesn't count, I think we can all agree.)

Adesanya may be a step up for Gas too bud.

 

[nebulousned]

Had a quick scan of comments here, sorry if I missed it, but didn't really see too much on what Adesanya backers say to Gas being an immense step up for him. Does his style still outweigh that for you? Because Gas is indeed a huge leap up for him. (Anderson doesn't count, I think we can all agree.)

I'm betting on Gastellum for that reason. He didn't dominate Anderson at all. They both just showboated a lot.

 

[nebulousned]

Adesanya may be a step up for Gas too bud.

I might be guilty of too much MMA math here, but Kelvin is on Jacare's level, who is only a notch below the top. Jacare managed a split decision against Romero. And if Jacare and Romero aren't top of the heap, then who is? Even the champ had a hard time with Romero.

 

[OutRun]

I have no fucking clue why Costa opened as a favorite and he ought to be like +400. He is not remotely UFC-caliber.
All he does is spam high kicks and these weird shovel hooks. He keeps his hands really low and all of his opponents are CANS. HARDCORE cans. They are basically just bags of tomato juice.
This has to be a joke or a trick somehow, Dana owes his family a favor or he's a make-a-wish recipient who is going to "win a fight in the UFC" before he dies.

EDIT:

Unrelated, but yo the ring girl these New Englanders chose is a total cutie with a good tight butt and thigh-high socks. When is the UFC going to start making their ladies wear thigh-high socks? She's only onscreen for ten seconds and she's the best part of the show.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

They are basically just bags of tomato juice.

Legit lol

 

[Tony J]

Most bets of mine are made after research, though in some cases I'll place a small bet prior to tape if I have a strong lean and expect the line to move unfavourably. Timing is important if you know how to read line movement, the term sharp simply means getting the best of the line.

Nice. So we are two weeks out, and looking at the other thread, you can drop Gs because the research is already done. Would it be safe to say you are already looking into events beyond 236?

 

[Sadistics]

Nice. So we are two weeks out, and looking at the other thread, you can drop Gs because the research is already done. Would it be safe to say you are already looking into events beyond 236?

Yep, got about 5k down between the following two cards already. The earlier you get in, the more likely the line is to be off as bettors haven't refined the lines to be more accurate.

Edit: a key part is not to go in too early where little amounts can significantly move lines. Once a few books have lines and limits have raised you can get thousands down across books with little to no movement.

 

[burge13]

I'm small on Gas, Adesanya controls distance well but we haven't seen him face a wrestler with competent striking yet. Gas uses a wrestling heavy gameplan, I think this looks like Uriah/Gas all over again. We've seen Anderson bullrush Izzy and land a couple strikes, no reason Gas cannot do that to close distance. He will get him down a few times IMO and his cardio is solid.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I'm small on Gas, Adesanya controls distance well but we haven't seen him face a wrestler with competent striking yet. Gas uses a wrestling heavy gameplan, I think this looks like Uriah/Gas all over again. We've seen Anderson bullrush Izzy and land a couple strikes, no reason Gas cannot do that to close distance. He will get him down a few times IMO and his cardio is solid.

Gastelum is a midget compared to Adesanya's height and reach, he's not gonna be able to just land strikes like that imo. I see Gastelum's path of victory being wrestling route if he's smart and go from there because if he can't and it stays standing he's going to get f'd up imo.

 

[burge13]

Gastelum is a midget compared to Adesanya's height and reach, he's not gonna be able to just land strikes like that imo. I see Gastelum's path of victory being wrestling route if he's smart and go from there because if he can't and it stays standing he's going to get f'd up imo.

As I said, I think he wrestles and gets him down but he isn't out of his depth striking like some of Izzy's previous opponents. His wrestling will open up the striking and vice versa (if he's smart)

 

[null]

Yep, got about 5k down between the following two cards already. The earlier you get in, the more likely the line is to be off as bettors haven't refined the lines to be more accurate.

Edit: a key part is not to go in too early where little amounts can significantly move lines. Once a few books have lines and limits have raised you can get thousands down across books with little to no movement.

We appreciate you taking care not to smash the opening lines too hard and ruin it for yourself and everyone else. You usually get the best early prices though with your wide array of books, although this time the lines went against you in some cases. Adesanya- -200 is looking bad now for example.