1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jordan3399, Mar 31, 2019.

  1. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2018
    Messages:
    2,820
    Likes Received:
    374
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    I think you're going over the last fight too much tbh, both are way improved and I'm just going off recent performances. I lean towards Poirier being able to outgrapple him based on how Max looked against Ortega and how Poirier looked against guys like Pettis where he showed great passing and positional BJJ.

    Also we've seen Max stunned briefly in his last 2 fights and Poirier hits hard, that straight left and low leg kicks should make the fight much more competitive on the feet. Almost everyone coming out of ATT has been using calf kicks to great effect and Max's stance makes him susceptible to them so I'd be very surprised if Poirier didn't throw them.

    This could obviously look like another typical Max fight where he comfortably outpoints him for a decision or late TKO but there's a lot of areas for Poirier to explore that could lead to a victory and at +225 I'm happy to find out.
     
  2. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2018
    Messages:
    2,820
    Likes Received:
    374
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Rest of the ML odds out btw
     
  3. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2018
    Messages:
    1,839
    Likes Received:
    491
    Maybe.
    My bookie has Belal as 2.15 (+115) Thanks. 5u maxbet on Remember the Name. As long as he avoids being nailed with some fluke knee or something he is winning that fight.
     
  4. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    Easy to pick Muhammed after seeing what happened to courteous in his last fight
     
  5. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2017
    Messages:
    9,688
    Likes Received:
    3,127
    Location:
    Wash
    So Ortega hits a couple of reactive doubles on Max, Max immediately scoots and gets back up therefore DP will out grapple him? DP typically doesn't shoot he like clinch and body lock against the cage which 1). Is not in the least bit easy to do against Holloway given his footwork and cage awareness and 2) given the fact that Holloway has great wrist control and good ability to find an open angle to escape the fence and clinch 3) Max's guillotine is superb, tight and hes good at finding it when shot on.

    Dunno about Max's stance being susceptible to calf kicks since hes comfortable standing in both ortho and sp and we dont know which he'll favor in this fight.

    Yeah Max got stung a bit but does DP really hit that much harder than Aldo? Aldo has much faster hands and more power Imo and Max took some clean nukes from him. Given his hard cut to 145 I see no reason his chin won't be better at 155.
     
  6. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    Max may also have more power at 155.

    Should see a healthier better version of max here. Porier better hope he can take him down and keep him there
     
  7. TrueAscension Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2018
    Messages:
    2,761
    Likes Received:
    1,715
    Shit, I went back and watched some tape on Israel. He's too evasive I think - I'm reversing sides on this. First parlay entered. Feel free to shoot me a PM if you want my parlay takes on these fights but I am not publicly posting them.
     
  8. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2018
    Messages:
    2,820
    Likes Received:
    374
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Ortega can't wrestle for shit and his positional grappling is terrible. He couldn't take down anyone in the UFC other than the can he faced in his debut yet got Max down twice. In comparison Poirier has shown great positional grappling controlling someone as difficult on the mat as Pettis.

    Not saying Max's chin is shot either but going from seemingly being invulnerable to getting stunned in back to back fights is not a good look and indicates a decline in his durability. He's definitely slower than Aldo (tbf who isn't?) but Poirier still hits very hard and is excellent at following up intelligently once he's hurt guys.

    As for the calf kicks Max is always susceptable to leg kicks he just typically offers good boxing counters as guys throw the slower, traditional, above the knee leg kicks. Thats much harder to do vs the faster calf kick.

    Where are you guys capping Max if you think there's value betting him here? Or do people just put a lot of weight into his Ortega win? I'd cap him at like -170 and thought Ortega was an easy fight for him tbh.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2019
  9. SBJJ Steel Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2007
    Messages:
    27,825
    Likes Received:
    5,303
    Just my opinion but I think Max actually looks better at 155 than 145

    Also would not surprise me to see Max have more total top control if there is grappling in the contest
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2019
  10. ApplesVild Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2015
    Messages:
    6,522
    Likes Received:
    0
    Could Adasnya/Gastalum be anything like Gastalum/Hall?
     
  11. Austisthunder Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2018
    Messages:
    890
    Likes Received:
    0
    If you poast ur parlays all the online bookies are gonna go bankrupt by the end of the month
     
  12. csufwrestler Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2002
    Messages:
    2,676
    Likes Received:
    38
    Location:
    California
    I see you losing money
     
  13. csufwrestler Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2002
    Messages:
    2,676
    Likes Received:
    38
    Location:
    California
    I like OSP over Krylov. Krylov has a lot of wins over lesser guys. I think osp keep safe range and will eventually get this down. A repeat in the method of victory wouldn’t surprise me. Osp at -125 seems pretty solid to me
     
  14. SBJJ Steel Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2007
    Messages:
    27,825
    Likes Received:
    5,303
    He can afford to
     
  15. Steelcity15 White Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2019
    Messages:
    3
    Likes Received:
    0
    Anyone feeling Montel Jackson could lose?
     
  16. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages:
    2,451
    Likes Received:
    24
    Location:
    Canada
    That's suspicious.
     
  17. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2019
    Messages:
    8,371
    Likes Received:
    2,533
    I think he wins, but -350 seems kinda steep.
     
  18. Steelcity15 White Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2019
    Messages:
    3
    Likes Received:
    0
    I’ve been trying to only bet mismatches and heavy favorites only. I’ve had success. If Andre were to be Monetl, how do you see Andre doing it? I feel Montel has the advantage on the feet and he has a wrestling background. Could Andre out grapple Montel?
     
  19. OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    Messages:
    737
    Likes Received:
    70
    I like your reasoning a lot and you gave me a big fucking tip with Craig last night that saved me from Barzola/Sheymon Moraes burning out. Tailing you here.
     
  20. OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    Messages:
    737
    Likes Received:
    70
    At least he won't be killing himself with a weight cut that makes him look and sound like he had a stroke.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.