I think you're going over the last fight too much tbh, both are way improved and I'm just going off recent performances. I lean towards Poirier being able to outgrapple him based on how Max looked against Ortega and how Poirier looked against guys like Pettis where he showed great passing and positional BJJ. Also we've seen Max stunned briefly in his last 2 fights and Poirier hits hard, that straight left and low leg kicks should make the fight much more competitive on the feet. Almost everyone coming out of ATT has been using calf kicks to great effect and Max's stance makes him susceptible to them so I'd be very surprised if Poirier didn't throw them. This could obviously look like another typical Max fight where he comfortably outpoints him for a decision or late TKO but there's a lot of areas for Poirier to explore that could lead to a victory and at +225 I'm happy to find out.