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UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jordan3399, Mar 31, 2019.

  1. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    BOL is having all kinds of issues, so unfortunately I can't log in, but appreciate the heads up! I am thinking he drops across all books into tomorrow.
     
  2. null Gold Belt

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    A few years ago when the new rules came about in many states with more liberal 10-8 rounds sportsbooks adjusted the price for draw significantly downward, that much I know. I am not sure that there have been more draws though since that happened.
     
  3. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    My feeling is that with the new scoring draws are more rare. Initially I thought that the 10-8 rounds would mean more draws but I can't remember the last draw. Maybe judges have more leeway with scoring so they ensure a draw doesn't occur.
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Right on! Starting pitching fell apart in Anaheim. Hopefully just a blip...
     
  5. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    When in doubt , trust 90% of people to go the stupid/ lazy route
     
  6. null Gold Belt

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    UFC 236 ceremonial weigh-in:

     
  7. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    I thought Max is gonna finish this fight in later rounds, but there are things which make me think otherwise.
    1..Max was bigger than Ortega, who himself is a giant FW. Max looked bigger even than Poirier at face off.
    2..I know Max is not a heavy handed fighter, but how many times we see a guy go up in weight and suddenly his shots command a lot more respect.
    3..Other sign - how many main events in recent history went past the 2nd round? From the last 9 events only two went the distance. All but one were over before the 3rd.
    4..Last two losses of Dustin were by finish very early in the 1st.

    I would seriously look at that Holloway by TKO/KO odds just because it's the most likely outcome IMO. And also think under 2.5rds have value too, because it covers if Dustin manages to find a choke (his only hope), I would think it is gonna be early before the 2:30 mark of the 3rd round - out of total of 24 wins he has only 2 finishes past 2.5rd, v Pettis 3rd but was 1st half of the round and v Gaethje in the beggining of the 4th.

    Edit: now that I am reading what I've wrote I see that this logic doesn't sound very good because I counted all of Dustin's fights, should've just look at his 5 round fights. There are 5 of them. None went to the judges. 2 are over 2.5rds - one loss and one win. Does this mean anything? Is Holloway gonna finish in the 4th or get finished in the 4th? No. I don't think this means anything. That is how less than half of his 5 rounders ended. Just my gut tells me Holloway with the clean KO inside 2 rounds.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
  8. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Need more cards in Philly I guess. Judges thought nothing of a 10-8 there it seemed like. I usually save $5 per event for a draw pick. Went with Belal-Millender as well. I hit one once, years ago, can't remember who now.
     
  9. theTKDguy Silver Belt

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    Idk if it's poirier, but I also feel somebody is getting tko'ed.
     
  10. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    A254B5C1-795F-4140-9E29-41FF596B3D24.jpeg

    Does this make anyone more or less bullish on Brandon Davis?
     
  11. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Feel like that is too much and unhealthy, but I am no expert.
     
  12. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Considering that fight was made like 2-3 weeks ago...gives a red flag vibe imo. Fight already said pass to me considering its BD's first drop to 135 plus Costa only spamming high kicks against severely outmatched dudes but now I have even more of a reason to stay away. Pass pass
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
  13. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Since when has a smart fighter ever given away their strategy to win in a goddamn media interview? Goddamnit you piss me off sometimes.
     
  14. Brandon Davis is rightfully the favourite but don’t underestimate some unknown young fighter just because he did weird shit fighting cans. You can spam high kicks against a local truck driver. I thought the same about Montel Jackson watching him crush some cans in the same local circuit. You should be more worried about Davis dropping down to 135 as a bettor.

    Davis is also close to Jason Knight, so losing is in his DNA lol
     
  15. Card Silver Belt

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  16. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Could be 10 in the morning and 10 at night. I dunno. Sounds excessive though. Sounds a lie, or a fib, more like it.
     
  17. Card Silver Belt

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  18. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I miss EZ. He always did the best breakdowns post weigh ins.

    Come back EZ !
     
  19. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    And I laughed when Belal went for a TD at the friggin' weigh in faceoff, haha dammit
     
  20. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Pretty sure Cyborg does that kind of thing, crazy amount but can be done.

    Just looked at the tweet, even Costa replied acknowledging Davis had been working all week, seems legit.
     

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