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UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jordan3399, Mar 31, 2019.

  1. I looked up if Best Fight Picks did a recap on Adesanya - Tavares and they have lmao.

    Listen to it if you are interested. I love their show but it's so obvious they bet Kelvin lol. It was all praises back then, saying he would fight for the belt and no word about Brad's allegedly broken foot.

    37:40

     
  2. Aaron Stevenson White Belt

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    How does this show them betting KG
     
  3. They like to shit on certain fighters when they bet the opposite and they like Kelvin a lot (bet him last time as well against Whittaker).
     
  4. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Just fade BFP. They're marginally profitable
     
  5. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Don't go thinking Costa is a good wrestler he did a token amount of wrestling but focused on football mostly and now in his fights his wrestling doesn't look good at all and he's a pure striker. Also if it does hit the mat Davis has a legit BJJ purple belt while, given how raw he is in the striking department, Costa is going to probably look like a fish out of water.

    As for the Zabit fight I think you're way off. Davis didn't look good cause Zabit let him he looked good cause he was fighting a very smart technical fight using a lot of feints, low kicks, teeps etc. to keep touching Zabit and outpoint him. Your argument that Zabit was figuring him out or timing him would make sense if Zabit then started countering him on the feet. Except he didn't he just grappled relentlessly until he got a sub cause he couldn't handle Davis technical striking.

    And again, I don't know how you can think Davis has such a taxing style, he throws with efficient technique not loading up on anything while Costa does the opposite, throwing hard with bad technique chasing a KO like a total amateur. If this makes it to the second round and he's been fighting like that no way is he gonna look fresh. Just like Rumble, Rountree and anyway else that does that, they slow down.
     
  6. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    The fact that people are entertaining Costa and Imadaev plays as essentially complete unknowns confuses me.

    Imadaev is literally a nationality and an Ali link. His regional film was nothing spectacular, a legion of complete bum bettors like Wiktoruspro and such are on him. Griffin is a tough journeyman. He and Costa have faced no real adversity in their careers so far and are going against tough, gritty Journeymen who will take it to them. Neither even has a win at a second-tier regional promotion, Costa doesn't even have a third-tier win or a win against anybody with a winning record.
     
  7. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    You're spot on... neither offers much reassurance or even substance when actually evaluated beyond their token bum crushing.
     
  8. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Yeah im on griffin and davis and i have a small hedge on costa round 1 x 5.5, when have we ever seen a debutant who hasnt beaten anyone remotely decent, look good in his first ufc fight? I can not recall anyone. You could say Johnny walker or naurdiev maybe but they had a lot more fights under their belt and a lot more cage time.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2019
  9. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    “I got to spar with (Imadaev) at Xtreme Couture,” Griffin said in advance of their ESPN-televised meeting at UFC 236, which takes place Saturday at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Ga. “When I got the name, I was like, ‘That’s that dude. I know that dude.’

    “He’s an ass, man. He’s not a good guy.”

    Griffin claims Imadaev had a reputation for trying to hurt sparring partners. Yet he agreed to go a few rounds with the undefeated Russian.

    Griffin claims Imadaev’s aggression eventually wore thin on the higher-ups at the gym, and he was asked to leave. Griffin also claims Imadaev ruffled feathers at a 10th Planet Jiu-jitsu gym when he threw a flying knee in practice. He also claims Imadaev tried to fight retired light heavyweight Forrest Griffin at the UFC Performance Institute.

    https://mmajunkie.com/2019/04/ufc-23...-zelim-imadaev
     
  10. betterthanjones Brown Belt

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    how's everyone dooooooooooooing who's pounding Holloway's line
     
  11. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Honestly the fact that Griffin has sparring experience with Imadaev and was still down for the fight speaks to me. You'd think it'd be a lose-lose for him if Imadaev was some insane badass, especially on such a quick turnaround coming off a robbery loss. UFC's probably not completely railroading a cheap journeyman who's been putting up consistently good, action fights and Imadaev is clearly a known quantity to Griffin. Less likely to be a Hernandez-Dariush style 'Oh fuck this regional shitter is more athletic than I thought' outlier result when Griffin's been in there with him before.

    Also in absolute terms, what qualifications does Imadaev have as a dagestani phenom? Dude's got no grappling credentials to speak of and there's a vague muttering about boxing championships somewhere.
     
  12. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Going to be all over him and his ITD line if my early card bets pan out.

    How are you doing, sir?
     
  13. betterthanjones Brown Belt

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    I think ITD sounds good sounds good, Dustin's nose won't last 3 rounds me thinks. I might not be up to watch the card, might have some shizzzz to do
     
  14. No one said Imadaev is the next Khabib lol.

    He is just way younger, trains with the right people, looks decent overall and is powerful. I bet one single unit on him. It’s a gamble of course. I’m banking on improvements and Max Griffin‘s flakiness. He lost to fucking Thiago Alves in 2019 (robbery or not, he made it very close. let’s not act like he dominated him in the 3rd round). Max ground game is mediocre at best. Hard to see Max grapple for 3 rounds as his skills and cardio are not made for that.
    To me Zelim has more ways to win. Standing or on the ground. Max took a lot of shots over his UFC fights, too. We got the finished Griffin product. Zelim is a mystery. Might flatline him or take his first L.

    Just statistically speaking it’s always worth to take a shot on a fighter from Russia fighting in the UFC.

    If you can afford it, it’s worth to take a gamble shot on Imadaev as a dog. If you got Max as a underdog, good play as well but if you bet Max as a favourite... lol. Never a good idea.

    BTW He is chechen, not dagestani and here is a good video about the fight and why some people took a shot on Zelim.

     
  15. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Kunchenko should have lost a decision to 2018 Alves. Alves isn't 100% shot aside from the Millender fight.

    There is a vast spectrum of places where Imadaev could currently be skill-wise. Max Griffin is one of the best case scenarios in terms of his ability as it stands. How is Griffin flaky? He's had cardio issues in the past, but dude's tough as nails and has generally come to fight. This will be the first time Imadaev experiences true adversity in the cage, and picking a guy like that as a favorite is nuts.

    You're prettymuch picking Neguremeanu against Safarov right now. Imadaev is a big enough question mark against a durable, good enough guy that anything tighter than +200 is absurd. It is possible that Imadaev plugs right in as a top prospect, but playing him at -120 is saying 'I believe that this gigantic question mark has a 55%+ chance of immediately being in the conversation to be ranked.'

    It's like people playing Kennedy Nzechwuku as a -250 against Craig last week. Experience has to count for something.
     
  16. OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

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    People calling some pale limey who literally has two strikes (weird shovel hook and headkick) a "diverse striker"
    Wiktoruspro on him too
    Gugabe calling out Costa bettors
    At this point the line feels so good that it HAS to be a trick of some kind. Davis must have secretly fractured his spine in camp. I'm hedging with Costa R1.
     
  17. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Yeah I don't know WTF to make of the Davis fight... I honestly just think I might opt out of this one. Something about it I don't like.
     
  18. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    IMO Costa's less likely to have suddenly surged up than Imadaev, but I also trust Griffin more than I do Davis.
     
  19. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    You can tell when people have terrible striking knowledge when they start hyping a guy like Costa or Imadaev but want to say how bad a guy like Thiago Alves is.
     
  20. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    You're pretty sharp, so I have to pick your brain.

    I was thinking about starting the night with a bet on Botelho ITD at +175... Any good?

    Do you think Jackson/Souk is playable from any angle? Jackson ITD pays +105 in my book, decision +120...
     

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