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UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jordan3399, Mar 31, 2019.

  1. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Not big on the Botelho fight at all. I tend to only play low-level WMMA on the basis of grappling advantages.

    I like Souk KO @ +1100 since Souk does hit pretty hard. Otherwise meh.
     
  2. betterthanjones Brown Belt

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    my sherbro fight finder capping statiscial analysis tells me that Randy Costa has guys with a combined record of 5-14 across 4 fights. I think Bradon Davis is worth a bet
     
  3. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Dumbass long shot parlay of the week -

    Turner in round 1
    Montel Jackson
    Poliana Botelho
    Dwight Grant In The Distance

    $50 bucks gets you $788. I might play this, depends how stupid I'm feeling later today...
     
  4. Thiago isn’t bad. He is shot & slow. They give him Staropoli for a reason. Kunchenko is very slow paced and low volume + he doesn’t really check leg kicks. Thiago was able to do his circling and occasionally kicking him thing where he isn’t in danger of getting slept.

    I don’t think it’s worth discussing so much about this fight. On paper Max should win more experienced bla bla bla but I wouldn’t be shocked if a young talented chechen takes him out. If you got any side as an underdog you are on the right side imo. Imadaev has clear ways to win this fight. He can knock him out and will at least be competitive with the grappling.

    Kennedy & that romanian dude are nowhere nearly as talented or as powerful as Imadaev. I bet Safarbeg in that fight and faded the second fight personally. Zelim is raw but talented. Kennedy was just big and that romanian dude...

    Again, Max might win, yeah. I’m okay with risking a unit but if you bet Zelim big or as a favourite you are stupid.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 13, 2019
  5. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Shots fired from Gugabe! Hit the deck!
     
  6. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I'd expect him to fight a bit of a higher class before jumping in the UFC. That polish dude dealt with his jobbers accordingly also before getting smoked by one of the worst dudes on the UFC roster
     
  7. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Kennedy probably has a higher ceiling than Imadaev relative to his division, if only since LHW is dreadful as hell. Imadaev was getting tagged by sub-replacement level shitters in wild hook-swinging fests. I don't see why you're bringing up his ethnicity so much, as well. Rick Grimes with identical footage against identical competition in Indiana's probably a +300 in this spot.
     
  8. Yeah it might be too early sure. Again, Costa is in a good camp with a lot of UFC pros, so they probably hooked him up.
     
  9. I know a thing or two about the Caucasus scene and there are rarely shitty fighters from there competing in the UFC or taking a lot of L's (Safarbeg comes to my mind as exception). Some people from there are high on him. We'll see. This fight will show if Zelim sucks or not. This discussion is going on for too long lol. I don't think anyone here is advicing to go big on Zelim as a favourite. The video of Tim summarizes basically why people took a underdog shot. That's it.

    Don't overrate footage from young fighters. Neither the good nor the bad. I remember when a lot of people including me bet Aldana vs Staropoli... lol.
     
  10. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Safarov is the GOAT, man. Don't talk shit unless you want the Safarov Squad to walk you down.

    Imadaev could lose to Griffin without 'sucking'. Griffin isn't a dude who's the 'you belong in the UFC' gatekeeper, he's more towards the 'You have ranked potential' end of the scale. I'd take Griffin as a even-money play against the majority of the UFC WW division, above a lot of mediocre space-fillers in there.

    Nothing in Imadaev's tape suggests that he'd be a favorite without blind Caucaus hype.
     
  11. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Can't believe the Zelim bout has generated as much discussion as any other bout on this card... <45>
     
  12. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Some props that at least might be worth a look imo (not necessarily strongly advocating plays, but at least at first glance they maybe had a little value in my eyes--full disclosure this is without any tape study in some cases).

    Frevola dec +510/Frevola rd 3 +1200. Turner KO is the most likely outcome but Frevola showed good grit vs Lando. Turner could be a frontrunner who fades if he doesn't get the early KO.

    OSP KO +383. Everyone sort of likes to focus on how OSP looks for that Von Flue choke (and he does) but Krylov is sloppy AF striking sometimes and it's not like OSP can't crack. At LHW I think it's equally as likely that if OSP finishes it's by KO as by sub.

    Rountree/Anders u1.0 at +160. Anders is pretty patient, but Rountree isn't. Both guys have KO power. Wouldn't surprise me at all if someone is sleeping inside 2 minutes in this one.

    Gastelum sub +625. His back takes are legit, and him sinking in a RNC is very possible (if unlikely).
     
  13. The tape suggests that he has power, leg kicks, decent cardio, high pressure , decent ground game and fast hands. Zelim can finish a fight late as well.

    Griffin has problems with leg kicks, mediocre grappling and he has cardio issues. Thiago has slow hands and he was still able to pressure him and even hurt him. Zelim will knock him out if he lands the same punches. Max is the type of dude that shoots for a takedown after hurting Thiago Alves in 2019 lol. He had a competitive grappling match with a shot Muay Thai striker.

    Man, I was also on the Griffin is solid train and bet him twice (vs Millender & Alves lol). He had a good round against Millender and gave it away later (No, I’m not comparing him to Zelim). Max has solid power and a chin (Can’t be as good today after all the shots he took. He does the Barboza Bambi circling with his weird facial expressions in every fight lmao.) Despite that he is basically straight punches and circling. You can hurt him, you can pressure him, you can outwrestle him.

    We can summarise all this to one thing: I don’t think you have to be that great to beat Griffin. It seems like we overrated Griffin because he has fought tough competition in the UFC but maybe he was just a durable motherfucker ? lol. He took a lot of ass whoopings where other guys would have go to sleep.

    I don’t get why you guys act like this is such a insane mismatch lol. Taking a shot against Griffin as the favourite is worth a thought.

    Anyway it was fun. Can’t wait to see what happens tonight. Safarbeg is the GOAT at least we can agree on that.
     
  14. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Yeah. Got OSP KO @ +850 which I like a lot, and fight to end by KO @ +185
     
  15. BTW I think you might like Zelim afterwards. He has that Safarbeg spirit in him lol. We might see some crazy shit tonight.
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Holy shit @ that OSP KO line. Rooting for you.
     
  17. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    I heard he's a huge a douche bag recently.
     
  18. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    [​IMG]

    Get it dude.
     
  19. OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

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    I didn't watch Kennedy tape (bet Craig blind off of the acclaim of...Jordan I think?) but Imadaev impressed me a lot, physically.
    Besides having a great gas tank and the ability to push a ferocious pace with good power for multiple rounds, he hit a knockout with a hook while moving backwards; that shows both power and composure when retreating, which not everybody has. Imadaev needs a lot of technique work but the physical gifts are there.

    EDIT: also something about him makes me thinks he's on the juice
     
  20. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    I'm convinced Grant is a nuclear puncher.

     

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