Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jordan3399, Mar 31, 2019.
Does anyone on this card punch with their full soul???
Imadaev punches with the souls of everyone in Dagestan and he's not even Dagestani.
This is exactly right. I think Pantoja is a **little** better on the mat. But just a little. AND...Reis has shown in some of his past fights that he'll sell out for the sub finish. If he has a chance to go after Pantoja's neck, he will. Anyone with 10 sub wins in their career that has shown the willingness to go for them is worth a sub prop play at +1800. Especially because the sport lends itself to quick finishes in ways people don't think about. What if Reis stuns Pantoja with strikes and grabs a guillotine in the ensuing scramble?
It's purely an odds based play but you guys are right to be taking a shot at it. This isn't the same as betting a guy's sub prop at +2000 who simply will never even attempt one. Reis will.
They should be more common, I think there's been more 10-8 rounds overall lately. I like to play draws when there's an explosive striker who preferebly is prone to gas (Vannata prime example) vs a wrestler/volume grinder, hoping for one dominant 10-8 round from the striker and then that he get's grinded out for the other 2 rounds
Any thoughts on the Turner and Grant bouts, mkess?
Reis/Pantoja doesn't go the distance is +170. Under 2.5 is +185...
Grant is now the favorite.
I put it in a post earlier for Turner/Frevola. I think the most likely scenario is that Turner gets an early KO but if he doesn't I think value shifts to Frevola. He showed serious grit vs Lando, the kid isn't in there looking for a way out. And Turner **might** be a frontrunner. If I was gonna play this one the value to me would be Frevola dec at +510 or Frevola rd 3 at +1200. Tuner KO or itd at +110 and +135 have no value imo.
Grant/Jouban...not sure how anyone can play this with any level of confidence. Because who can possibly know which Jouban we'll see? Jouban looks like the more refined striker (by kind of a lot, honestly). But he almost always has lapses in his fights where he gets tagged. I say ALMOST because against the big hitting Perry he fought basically the perfect fight from a fight IQ standpoint. Avoiding Perry's power while using angles and footwork to land his own strikes. If he fights like that...Jouban by dec is very likely. If he spaces out or gets sloppy like he did vs Killa B (yeah Jouban won but wow did he get tagged a lot) Grant likely puts him to sleep. Grant has huge power from what I've seen. I guess...maybe Grant NSC at -170? I think if the fight ends itd, it's probably at least twice as likely that it's Grant getting the finish.
Seen that Technical Tim guys videos posted a couple of times recently in these topics. Anyone know much about him? Think the two that I watched were pretty good, seems knowledgeable but I don't know much about him.
Looking at betting, these props are jumping out to me:
- Turner r1 @ 4.5
- Israel most significant strikes @ 1.62
- Millender KO @ 6.00 (Belal coming out with a wrestling heavy gameplan and being durable is a concern)
- Griffin/Imadaev goes the distance @ 2.38
- Rountree r1 @ 6.5
Skimming through props on 5d, looks like OSP by KO climbed up to +585. Not as good as @Gugabe 's sick +850 but still monster value imo. Krylov is talented but SO sloppy, almost anyone decent at these odds by KO against him seems worth it.
Jouban could touch touch wait touch touch and never let Grant get a counter off but the dude is an action fighter. He's gonna go out on his shield as well I don't expect Jouban to cover up and let the ref save him if he's rocked badly. He'll be crossing a line between being busy enough to not get hit and score (possibly get a finish of his own since Jouban is finished as well) but could cross into bring too busy and get his chin touched badly.
No bet on this fight. I have a hard time calling which x factors have the edge here.
I've spoken to the guy before, he's good especially regarding wrestling/grappling.
This was my thought initially but in practice I don't see many.
+128 on mine I like belal though
Wow, fucking regret not waiting for my Millender bets now. Christ!
Now watch tonight it happens. Turner/Frevola, Imadaev/Griffin, and Millender/Belal seem the most likely.
I didn't look at odds but 5d usually has draws between +6000 and +8000 (ballpark, maybe some outside that range). I'm guessing if you RR these 3 at $.50 you could win maybe $200k or so off a $2 investment LOL. And all you need is for all 3 of these to be draws! If 2 were to hit you'd still make maybe $3k or so?
Someone please do it just in case it hits! It's not like you'll miss the $2, right?
Looks like Kelvin's getting steamed, interesting. Adesanya down to -143!
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