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UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jordan3399, Mar 31, 2019.

  1. OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

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    I'm not remotely as old as these other boomers like Jim Gunn or Mkess, but Barry's ability to give "premium picks" that are literally always wrong shows that he knows how to cap the fights. He just trolls and posts the losing picks. Unironically just pick the opposite of what he recommends and you've probably got strong +EV capping on your side.
     
  2. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Throwing my 2 cents in on the Millender-Muhammad debate...

    I love how Millender probably just begged the UFC to let him fight again right away so they answer with a guy like Muhammad. First class trolling there. Or is it.....

    I kind of wonder if Curtis kind of wondered if his previous couple opponents wouldn't look to take him down. Griffin's seemed to catch him by surprise and Zaleski hit him with the perfect, powerful TD. With Belal, he won't have any mystery; he'll 100% be looking for TDs at some point, but it's not like Belal's some phenom at completing them anyways. Funny enough, I actually think Belal's style really plays to Millender and because of it he will do everything he can to establish distance from the onset, just like he did in Rounds 2 and 3 against Griffin, instead of waiting to see what comes or getting surprised at a sudden TD attempt. Against Griffin he used smart, cautious length and kept his hands low to get good underhooks immediately. He even stuffs a deep, hands-clasped TD attempt in the 3rd by Griffin. Randy Brown is a skinny, discount Millender and he kept alot of the fight against Belal on the feet, for the most part, with fairly straightforward TDD. Belal might not be able to outmuscle the much bigger Millender like he did in the 3rd to Brown. He couldn't outmuscle Neal either.

    I actually think this is a somewhat simple match-up for Curtis. He knows exactly what Muhammad will try to do because Belal is a completely known entity. He won't have to worry about cat-like sub reflexes like Zaleski in scrambles - the way he pounced on his exposed back was incredible - and there's basically zero KO threat. Sure, Belal is "always game" but I see this giving Curtis more openings sooner. The knees and kicks Millender was landing against Griffin nearly finished him and they will KO the slower, more exposed/hittable Belal if he can land one clean.

    I'm on +Millender and I think he has a good chance to even finish him too. The striking skill gap is so wide, the TDD is not as bad as thought, while the TD's themselves aren't that often or that good, and recency bias from a short bout where Curtis made one really bad mistake - and Zaleski looked great - is giving us good odds on him imo.
     
  3. Pfooter24 Yellow Belt

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    Gastelum is an overachiever. Good chance he lands the left hand. Can he sleep him if he can't can he get him down and bully him? Porier and max is a pretty even matchup to me I think the line is too wide. Going back and forth on krylov and osp. The question is how much better has krylov gotten with his Tdd and submiddion/,grappling defense. I know he stupidly hel on to a guillotine and got von st pruexd to sleep . But had it not happened he still wouldve gotten taken down and submitted. Osp declining but submissions are still is bread and butter if neal didnt finish belal can millender? He got hit with bombs. Cannot depend on Anders but think he wins that fight most of the team. Cant believe he couldnt beat elias. Dont trust jouban. Favorable matchup for jackson. Turner by early ko or bust
     
  4. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Anders has never impressed me at all and Rountree, despite his limitations has good power. Why are people so confident in Anders? Fight screams pass but gun to head I'd take the underdog small rather than the 5U+ bets I've seen the other way.
     
  5. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Weird to see so many on Curtis. Seemed like this forum almost unanimously thought Belal could beat Neal. And I'm almost certain Neal is a tougher matchup for Belal than Mill is.
     
  6. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    To me the bet hinges on can Anders survive the first 3 minutes. I think he can
     
  7. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    They used to call him the cooler
     
  8. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Most of us were on Neal, or am I wrong there? I was anyways. I just had too much on ITD, so maybe I should dial back my Millender ITD feelings too. Think Curtis takes it though.
     
  9. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    That was more just questioning Neal not fading into oblivion after rd1 if I remember correctly
     
  10. Pfooter24 Yellow Belt

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    Fairly confident pantoja handles reis but his cardio is what worries me
     
  11. Pete O White Belt

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    Do you guys see any value in salmon? He’s got good boxing
     
  12. Omni1 Purple Belt

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    How do you think Pantoja will prevent Reis from pinning him up against the fence? How will Alexandre prevent Reis from eating up the clock with cage control? How will Alexandre stay on the feet after Reis gets double underhooks? Watch Ortiz vs Pantoja & Ortiz vs Reis. It's obvious that Reis is the better wrestler. The one thing that concerned me before I watched tape was Pantoja's ability to scramble. However, my fears were washed away after watching Reis vs Formiga. I was impressed with Reis' ability to scramble to safety after Formiga took his back. I believe this fight will be close. But in the end I see Reis winning 29-28 on all three cards. I have a more detailed explanation a few posts back if you are interested.
     
  13. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    Not too sure about that, his striking might have looked improved against Lando because he has zero defence and gladly blocks punches with his face. Frevola mostly just throws wild power shots, I think Jalin is faster, a way better striker and Frevola will leave plenty of openings for him...but I'm not rushing to bet him either against a durable guy with power seeing how he's been knocked out in 1/4 of his fights.
     
  14. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    I think the striking gap will be too big in favor for Salmon. Line may widen further soon.
     
  15. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    Come on dude. Siyar looked extremely labored, slow and was breathing heavier than a hooker in church. How can you say he wasn't gassed?
     
  16. Papi Green Belt

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    Boston has better boxing. But i think Taha is more diverse, explosive. And seems more athletic. Without the threat of the td he will unload more of a varied attack. Also boston coming off almost 2 year layoff. Im currently passing but if line does widen like you predict i will be on Taha for .5u or maybe even 1u.
    Also Bostons output is pretty low he could lose a decision even though hes landing more crisper strikes in the pocket Taha might just be more active and judges could favorite it his way
     
  17. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Don't get this recency bias re Millender Belal. Yes Millender is coming off a quick sub loss, but he was also held down for all of r1 by Max friggin Griffin who then decided not to attempt another takedown. He was taken down by Alves and was flat on his back in the middle of the cage. It was near the end of the round luckily for Millender, cos it didn't look like Millender was getting up any time soon. Siyar the brawler had his back but opted to pound away rather than put the hooks in. In his Bellator rnc loss he was literally choked as soon as the guy took his back. There's a clear pattern here and it's one Millender doesn't seem to have improved on in the last four years.
     
  18. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Instead of just trying to close distance and get a takedown, frevola was able to get in and out, implementing leg kicks and lead right hands.

    It was better than what I saw versus Reyes where he just bit down on his mouth piece and threw wild hooks

    That being said Serra/longo is a much better gym than where turner is training with a bunch of nobodies

    I would expect the improvements to come from frevola here and I would expect turners cardio to be bad if he’s pushed. He’s huge for his division
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2019
  19. BigNick100 Green Belt

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    Turner is training with a bunch of nobodies? Man you should do your homework lol
     
  20. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    Will Dustin actually be the best wrestler Holloway has faced?

    Lamas is good but obviously smaller than Dustin. Maybe Bermudez? Who Holloway lost to...

    Who has the advantage in the clinch?

    As good as Dustin has looked with his striking I still think Holloway is a level above him, he will have a higher out put also and I believe Dustin can wilt under pressure, I still feel he was about to lose against Eddie the first time and found a way out, yeah the knees where illegal but Dustin looked done before that.
     

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