UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

[Pfooter24]

Omni I don't think he ll have an answer for it really I just think he lands the more significant blows along the way. Pantj builds an early lead Guessing they'll both tire a little Reis' late surge is not enough. I guess I could be overlooking reis grinding him out.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Anders & Khalil are both not trustworthy guys.

I think Anders wins this but I won’t put a bet on it especially not as a favourite. Khalil is dangerous for 2-3 minutes and one of the most mentally weak fighters on the roster. Anders on the other hand is notorious for chasing his opponent for 15 minutes trying to land his left hand. He really just has a left hand and a left kick. Does Khalil have the output to outpoint him ? Meh. Wouldn’t be shocking to see Anders clinch a lot right away like he did in the Marreta fight.

Again he should win but I’m personally not willing to bet Anders ever again. There are better spots imo.

 

[ill800]

Turner is training with a bunch of nobodies? Man you should do your homework lol

Adrenaline combat sports according to tapology has a bunch of nobodies

 

[Sham5916910]

Adrenaline combat sports according to tapology has a bunch of nobodies

He trains at Parillo's gym with RDA, etc.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Don't get this recency bias re Millender Belal. Yes Millender is coming off a quick sub loss, but he was also held down for all of r1 by Max friggin Griffin who then decided not to attempt another takedown. He was taken down by Alves and was flat on his back in the middle of the cage. It was near the end of the round luckily for Millender, cos it didn't look like Millender was getting up any time soon. Siyar the brawler had his back but opted to pound away rather than put the hooks in. In his Bellator rnc loss he was literally choked as soon as the guy took his back. There's a clear pattern here and it's one Millender doesn't seem to have improved on in the last four years.

There's another clear pattern that you high-lite too though. Each of your points has an 'if only' attached to it.

If only Griffin decided to attempt another takedown. But he didn't. Mid-round Millender adjusted really well. He kept his hands low, accepting that he'd take shots in the face, in order to get immediate underhooks. Also, Griffin was made apprehensive because he didn't want knees to cave his face in.

If only it wasn't near the end of round 1 when Alves got him down. But it was. Was that merely luck for Millender there?

If only Siyar put hooks in. But he didn't.

It seems opponents, even with a supposed clear ptv really struggle with Millender. Do all these guys make dumb decisions or is the common denominator actually really quite good?


Anyways, I'm in for ~2u on the plus fighter. This isn't some giant play and I could look foolish when Belal shoots once, gets him down, and rides him out for 5x3 rounds. But that's not really how Belal fights go. He likes his hands and he likes bouncing around. Curtis dices him up on the feet at range and maybe finishes him. His TDD is at least as good as Brown's was. His getups do suck.

 

[Sham5916910]

There's another clear pattern that you high-lite too though. Each of your points has an 'if only' attached to it.

If only Griffin decided to attempt another takedown. But he didn't. Mid-round Millender adjusted really well. He kept his hands low, accepting that he'd take shots in the face, in order to get immediate underhooks. Also, Griffin was made apprehensive because he didn't want knees to cave his face in.

If only it wasn't near the end of round 1 when Alves got him down. But it was. Was that merely luck for Millender there?

If only Siyar put hooks in. But he didn't.

It seems opponents, even with a supposed clear ptv really struggle with Millender. Do all these guys make dumb decisions or is the common denominator actually really quite good?


Anyways, I'm in for ~2u on the plus fighter. This isn't some giant play and I could look foolish when Belal shoots once, gets him down, and rides him out for 5x3 rounds. But that's not really how Belal fights go. He likes his hands and he likes bouncing around. Curtis dices him up on the feet at range and maybe finishes him. His TDD is at least as good as Brown's was. His getups do suck.

The common denominator is that these guys are all strikers who never or barely ever incorporate wrestling/grappling into their style, so i don't expect their fight iq as in time in a round they hit a takedown, or what they do on the ground to be very smart. Belal always incorporates wrestling into his fights, it's part of his thought process in every camp and every fight, so he will be a lot smarter mixing it in than your Thiago Alves' of this world.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

Will Dustin actually be the best wrestler Holloway has faced?

Lamas is good but obviously smaller than Dustin. Maybe Bermudez? Who Holloway lost to...

Who has the advantage in the clinch?

As good as Dustin has looked with his striking I still think Holloway is a level above him, he will have a higher out put also and I believe Dustin can wilt under pressure, I still feel he was about to lose against Eddie the first time and found a way out, yeah the knees where illegal but Dustin looked done before that.

Absolutely disagree. I think Dustin was being faster and landing the better shots. I remember that because I had a lot on Dustin on the rematch based on their first fight.

But yeah, I do believe Dustin can wilt under Max pressure. But it's not something we can take from the Eddie fight. I just say this based on Max pressure making basically everyone quit and I wouldn't call Dustin special on durability (Like Fergusson, for instance).

 

[BigNick100]

Adrenaline combat sports according to tapology has a bunch of nobodies

As Sham beat me to it, he trains at RVCA , Jason Parillo's gym with RDA and that crew. He has also trained with Bisping in the past, Bisping used him to prepare for Anderson Silva. He has trained with UFC vets for a while now. And I wouldn't just go off what tapology says, search things like someone's Instagram to get more up to date information or pics. Tapology still has RDA listed at King's MMA when he has left there over 2 years now.

 

[ill800]

As Sham beat me to it, he trains at RVCA , Jason Parillo's gym with RDA and that crew. He has also trained with Bisping in the past, Bisping used him to prepare for Anderson Silva. He has trained with UFC vets for a while now. And I wouldn't just go off what tapology says, search things like someone's Instagram to get more up to date information or pics. Tapology still has RDA listed at King's MMA when he has left there over 2 years now.

Yea everything I checked had him at adrenaline. I knew from tape he had helped bisping.

I also didn’t see anything on his Instagram but all the pics didn’t load. Thanks for the info.

 

[ApplesVild]

Absolutely disagree. I think Dustin was being faster and landing the better shots. I remember that because I had a lot on Dustin on the rematch based on their first fight.

But yeah, I do believe Dustin can wilt under Max pressure. But it's not something we can take from the Eddie fight. I just say this based on Max pressure making basically everyone quit and I wouldn't call Dustin special on durability (Like Fergusson, for instance).

I would generally agree that Dustin isn't that durable, but the one thing that makes me second guess it is that he survived and won against Justin, who seems like just the right kind of fighter to pressure and overwhelm Dustin.

I still favour Max but I have hedged a few bets with a Dustin win

 

[ApplesVild]

Belal/Curtis is a dog or pass for me

 

[Austisthunder]

There's another clear pattern that you high-lite too though. Each of your points has an 'if only' attached to it.

If only Griffin decided to attempt another takedown. But he didn't. Mid-round Millender adjusted really well. He kept his hands low, accepting that he'd take shots in the face, in order to get immediate underhooks. Also, Griffin was made apprehensive because he didn't want knees to cave his face in.

If only it wasn't near the end of round 1 when Alves got him down. But it was. Was that merely luck for Millender there?

If only Siyar put hooks in. But he didn't.

It seems opponents, even with a supposed clear ptv really struggle with Millender. Do all these guys make dumb decisions or is the common denominator actually really quite good?


Anyways, I'm in for ~2u on the plus fighter. This isn't some giant play and I could look foolish when Belal shoots once, gets him down, and rides him out for 5x3 rounds. But that's not really how Belal fights go. He likes his hands and he likes bouncing around. Curtis dices him up on the feet at range and maybe finishes him. His TDD is at least as good as Brown's was. His getups do suck.

As bizarre as it may seem, i think the correct answer is to assume a lot of these guys are not intelligent enough to stick to a winning plan for 3 rounds which is insane for a professional fighter

But you see it again and again that guys will absolutely refuse to take the path of least resistance anf their opponents.

Lately ive been finding success in fading suspect low IQ fighters

 

[Stunna77]

I'm a little amused at the way people view Millender now. If the guy has such wretched takedown defense, such poor sub defense, and is so useless off his back, how in the world did the guy go 9-1 in his last 10 fights, including a LFA title reign, 3-1 in the UFC, AND beating multiple opponents he was an underdog against in the process? How did he manage to beat a dangerous grappler in Kevin Holland? How did he beat Max Griffin?

Cause Kevin Holland is very high on the autistic scale when it comes to his fight IQ and has no interest in grappling unless his opponent forces it. Max Griffin just isn't a good wrestler. Wrestling a very tired Alves (and doing absolutely nothing with the positions) isn't impressive.

Most of these guys wrestled with Millender and many took him down, so it's not like they were too stupid to think of this, either.

And dominated him when they looked to enforce the wrestling. I think Belal will imply a more grappling heavy style then Alves, Max, Siyar and has the skillset to execute it.

Huh? Siyar has been wrestling a lot more since his return from injury. Hell, he beat Thach solely through wrestling. As for Griffin, he was out-wrestling Zaleski dos Santos in their fight and he beat Alves solely with wrestling in round 3 of their fight despite being utterly exhausted.

Everyone can wrestle and tap Brandon Thatch. Touched on Griffin above.

Neither are good wrestlers (although their striking does open up more opportunities for them than Muhammad's striking does), but if we're going to call them "poor", that means very few welterweights in the entire world are even "decent".

You get really hung up on specific words used instead of the posts in general. Call them poor, call them below average, whatever you want. They simply aren't as good of wrestlers as belal, nor do they have the skillset to blend their wrestling with their striking as seamlessly as him.

I watched the fight this morning. Bahadurzada was hurt and wobbly at times, but not exhausted in the cardio sense. He threw very powerful punches I have yet to see anyone "completely gassed" throw. The same way that Muhammaed was hurt in round 3 against Neal, not exhausted.

K..

 

[Stunna77]

Throwing my 2 cents in on the Millender-Muhammad debate...

I love how Millender probably just begged the UFC to let him fight again right away so they answer with a guy like Muhammad. First class trolling there. Or is it.....

I kind of wonder if Curtis kind of wondered if his previous couple opponents wouldn't look to take him down. Griffin's seemed to catch him by surprise and Zaleski hit him with the perfect, powerful TD. With Belal, he won't have any mystery; he'll 100% be looking for TDs at some point, but it's not like Belal's some phenom at completing them anyways. Funny enough, I actually think Belal's style really plays to Millender and because of it he will do everything he can to establish distance from the onset, just like he did in Rounds 2 and 3 against Griffin, instead of waiting to see what comes or getting surprised at a sudden TD attempt. Against Griffin he used smart, cautious length and kept his hands low to get good underhooks immediately. He even stuffs a deep, hands-clasped TD attempt in the 3rd by Griffin. Randy Brown is a skinny, discount Millender and he kept alot of the fight against Belal on the feet, for the most part, with fairly straightforward TDD. Belal might not be able to outmuscle the much bigger Millender like he did in the 3rd to Brown. He couldn't outmuscle Neal either.

I actually think this is a somewhat simple match-up for Curtis. He knows exactly what Muhammad will try to do because Belal is a completely known entity. He won't have to worry about cat-like sub reflexes like Zaleski in scrambles - the way he pounced on his exposed back was incredible - and there's basically zero KO threat. Sure, Belal is "always game" but I see this giving Curtis more openings sooner. The knees and kicks Millender was landing against Griffin nearly finished him and they will KO the slower, more exposed/hittable Belal if he can land one clean.

I'm on +Millender and I think he has a good chance to even finish him too. The striking skill gap is so wide, the TDD is not as bad as thought, while the TD's themselves aren't that often or that good, and recency bias from a short bout where Curtis made one really bad mistake - and Zaleski looked great - is giving us good odds on him imo.

Respect the opinion and breakdown. Just disagree with Millender getting taken down because he was surprised by the tds. He overextended badly a few times and got hit with bodylocks against siyar or the reactive td by Zalseki. Simply got bullrushed by Griffin. Point being, he has been taken down in plenty of different ways. His astounding lack of get-ups also leads me to beleive he just simply isn't a good wrestler/grappler. Fun fight, will keep a close eye on Millender KO here as I don't like his chances to win a decison so it may be a decent hedge.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Always bet black special parlay... Jackson, Turner Millender and Grant. All four of these gentlemen are huge at the weight and have KO power in their hands (Errm knees) $25 gets you like $200. I might take a stab at that while Millender is still a dog.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Belal/Curtis is a dog or pass for me

I think there's huge value on Millender at anything +++ odds to be honest.

 

[cocomilk]

Belal is the square play but getting steamed bigtime

 

[Oblivian]

Don't get this recency bias re Millender Belal. Yes Millender is coming off a quick sub loss, but he was also held down for all of r1 by Max friggin Griffin who then decided not to attempt another takedown. He was taken down by Alves and was flat on his back in the middle of the cage. It was near the end of the round luckily for Millender, cos it didn't look like Millender was getting up any time soon. Siyar the brawler had his back but opted to pound away rather than put the hooks in. In his Bellator rnc loss he was literally choked as soon as the guy took his back. There's a clear pattern here and it's one Millender doesn't seem to have improved on in the last four years.

It's pretty clear there's a recency bias when so many people bet on Millender over Zaleski.

 

[Stunna77]

It's pretty clear there's a recency bias when so many people bet on Millender over Zaleski.

TBF this is a way different style matchup and that fight didn't do anything to dissuade the notion of Millender having poor tdd and grappling.

That said, there are also a ton of bad bettors on this forum if were being honest, so there can be both recency bias as well as legitimate reasons to be on Belal without taking that fight into much account.

 

[Tony J]

Didn't want to disrupt the bet thread, but just curious.

To all of you that already put in your bets, and you all have mighty big brass ones imo, do you put in your bets this early because the research is all done and you have eyed this card from this far out? Or you know most of the fighters so well you can handicap the match-ups on the fly and take advantage of prices?

This two week gap is throwing me off, as I prefer one week exactly to research a card, and begin looking into the next one.